Future Imperfect

By S.G. Jilanee | March 2020

It was on October 7, 2001 that the United States invaded Afghanistan. The action was code-named, “Operation Enduring Freedom,” following the 9/11 tragedy, when the Taliban government in Afghanistan refused its demand to expel Osama bin Laden, unless the U.S. produced evidence of bin Laden’s master-minding the incident. The Taliban asked for evidence of bin Laden’s involvement in the 9/11 incident to consider the US request. The war has dragged on ever since. Even after 20 years there is no clear indication of peace being within reach. Ousted from power, the Taliban have been fighting all the way without betraying any sign of fatigue. Their grit and morale remains unshaken. They also have the advantage of fighting on their own turf, whereas the American troops are fighting thousands of miles away from home.

Meanwhile, “since 2001, more than 775,000 U.S. troops have been deployed to Afghanistan, many repeatedly. Of those, 2,300 died there and 20,589 were wounded in action,” according to US Defence Department figures. During the same period, “the Defence Department, State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development have spent or appropriated between $934 billion and $978 billion, for the war in Afghanistan. That is the tally to date. The figures, both of casualties and expenses, would pile up if the conflict goes on.

Clearly, this is America’s longest war and a purposeless one, as well. The US is keen to withdraw. Negotiations and the peace movement intensified in 2018 amid talks between the Taliban and the United States, whose 20,000 soldiers maintain a presence within the country to support the Afghan government.

Zalmay Khalilzad, the US envoy for reconciliation in Afghanistan has said the peace talks have reached an “important stage” amid a renewed push to reach an agreement with the Taliban to end the war that has been raging in the country for almost 20 years.

Khalilzad called his two-day trip to Kabul, “productive”, where he met President Ashraf Ghani, Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah, former President, Hamid Karzai, women’s rights activists and other political leaders and “discussed efforts to achieve reduced violence and pave the way to intra-Afghan negotiations.”

A Taliban official in Doha, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Al Jazeera that a ceasefire in Afghanistan will come in place when an agreement is signed, referring to the deal being discussed between the US and the Taliban.

According to Taliban officials, their ruling council has agreed to a temporary ceasefire in Afghanistan, providing a window in which a peace agreement with the United States can be signed.

But the Taliban negotiate with the United States in Doha. They do not talk with Ashraf Ghani, the Afghan president, whom they dismiss as an American stooge, an abomination not worthy of notice. Frustrated, Ghani takes it out on Pakistan, whining, for example, that Pakistan continued to give sanctuary to an insurgent group that helps the Taliban in its war against Kabul and the United States.

Not content with whining at home, Ghani took his dirty linen to Davos, to wash and hang it at the World Economic Forum to dry under the Swiss sun. He contradicted Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s statement to reporters the previous day, that the Haqqani Network, which the United States has designated as a terrorist group, had no activities or bases in Pakistan, and called the denial “un-helpful.” Instead, he stressed the need to “engage in a constructive engagement where the special relations between the Taliban and Pakistan end. It is good for both countries and it is good for the region and the world.”

Even after 20 years there is no clear indication of peace being within reach.

However, since the peace talks in Doha, between the Taliban and the US seem to be progressing well, a few of questions arise about the future of the country. Who, for instance, will rule after a deal is struck between the U.S. and Taliban? Ashraf Ghani will be certainly out. Who will take his place? That is an important question, given the fact that he is an elected president. And it is vitally necessary for enduring peace that it is satisfactorily thrashed out.

No doubt, the Taliban have learned their lesson a very hard way. Therefore, if they come to power again, there will be no more destruction of the Buddha statue. They know that, being an extremist government, they were recognized by only three countries, - Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the UAE - in the past. To be acceptable worldwide, they will have to reform, which will include holding elections and empowering women.

Meanwhile, as the talks between the Taliban and the U.S. progress, cynics are asking questions. They doubt if a durable countrywide cease-fire would result in case of an agreement in Doha. They even question if the Taliban leadership is in full control of all their fighting factions and foot soldiers. Yet another question is, how sincere is the Taliban leadership about an intra-Afghan dialogue and how far will they go in accepting the demands of the government, civil society, and women?

A satisfactory answer to these questions holds the key to lasting peace in war-torn Afghanistan.

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