The End of Qatar Crisis?

The Pacific Gulf, the land of monarchs and dynasties, is a labyrinth of political ties and tensions. The region is laced with complex political agendas formed on the basis of geographical ties, religious affiliations or ethnic proximity. Amongst the Gulf states, however, an oddity has surfaced over the years in the form of the State of Qatar, which in spite of being at the core of the Middle East dynamics both in terms of terrain and political relevance, tends to be an exception, adopting a daring position against the will of the neighbouring countries, especially the Saudi Kingdom. Such a deviant act by Qatar has earned the country a path of regional isolation as well as garnered a tenacious reputation to the country.

Qatar is quite a small country, located in the north-eastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula. Despite being relatively smaller in land area, the oil-rich country stands as a major global oil supplier; claiming about 13% of the entire global oil supply, the third largest in the world. The state shares its land border with Saudi Arabia in the South, while having Iran at a distance to the East. The rest of the Persian Gulf surrounds the country as it niches in the inlet to Middle East. In spite of such a close geographical layout, Qatar has always been a level out of sync with the rest of the Gulf region. The state of Qatar has adopted an ambitious foreign policy, much to the displeasure of Saudi Arabia. This deviant behaviour led to the nefarious Diplomatic Crunch of 2017, which was also seen as the Gulf's major political crisis, when the quartet of such countries as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Egypt severed diplomatic ties with Qatar on the grounds of terror-financing in the regional warfare and because of Qatar's alleged support to the militant groups in the war-torn regions of Syria and Lebanon.

The Qatari government has taken a resilient approach towards the imposed allegations, denying any coordination or alleged support offered to terrorist groups like al-Qaeda or the ISIS. The covert reason of the dissent, however, was much more deep-rooted than originally claimed. The Kingdom of Saudi regime was unhappy with the growing relations between Qatar and Iran, the kingdom’s arch-rival. The stout alliance of Doha and Tehran stands out in the shade of a heavy supply of oil to the state of Iran; burdened and tarnished under international sanctions while the state of Qatar sharing the world’s largest gas field with the shiite regime, naturally to the chagrin of the Saudi kingdom.

In June 2017, a severe crackdown botched diplomatic relations between the Gulf states and Qatar. The outright feud was led by the Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt and the UAE, but many other countries followed suit soon, including Libya and the Maldives. Kuwait and Oman remained the only two nations to not lend their support to the anti-Qatar alliance. The ramifications of such political developments in the region emerged in numerous forms, e.g. a deadline was given to Qatari citizens to go back to their own country after all their property and possessions and that too within a 14-day period to avoid detention and legal repercussions. Consequently, many mixed-nationality families were ruthlessly separated while the Gulf's airspace was immediately closed off to Qatar, forcing local airlines to re-route their destinations. Despite having a strong economic base, the unprecedented boycott caused the Qatari stock market to collapse by approximately 10% within a month. However, due to the support of Turkey and Iran, the stock market gradually bounced back with a resounding 6% recovery by the year end.

In passing years, the region has softened its stance against Qatar, either because of near to no detrimental loss incurred to the state or its sheer refusal to change its perception as well as political writ. The Trump administration has continued its efforts to normalise its relations with Qatar, while the state of Kuwait has been a willing mediator to restore alliance in the Gulf. The recent visit of the US government adviser and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has sparked speculation of a possible agreement with Qatar, resulting from the talks brokered under the mediation of Kuwait. Whilst the Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal Bin Farhan Al Saud, has claimed a ‘Significant progress in the resolution’ post the talks, the Qatari regime has been adamant on their purview since the advent of the crisis; not only actively defending their favourable ties with Turkey and Iran but outright outlawing any possibility of a bilateral deal with Saudi Arabia.

With both Bahrain and the UAE normalising relations with Israel and the mounting pressure on the kingdom itself to follow suit, the cracks are finally appearing. Now as the US government stands under a renewed and completely new regime led by President-elect Joe Biden, the kingdom is vying for a new window to enhance its relevance in the region again. Yet, with close states slipping through its fingers and the US by itself inching towards rekindling the Nuclear Deal with Iran, the Qatar monarchy finds itself in desperate need of regional allies than ever.