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Cover Story

Pakistan’s Ticking Youth Bomb

Those in authority must act now and take the necessary steps before Pakistani youth take matters into their own hands

By Dr. Mehtab S. Karim | September 2026

Youth are a crucial segment of a population. Economic progress, national cohesion, social peace, and political stability depend, to a substantial measure, on success in providing opportunities to young people, with the ultimate goal of drawing youth positively into national life. The global discourse on youth highlights the great importance of educating them and providing them with employment opportunities, along with political freedom, for peace and development in society.

In this respect, an important theme is the demographic youth bulge—usually defined as a high proportion of young people relative to the total population—which arises when a country has experienced high fertility in the recent past. More recently, the term Gen Z has been used for those born between 1997 and 2012, who in 2026 are between the ages of 14 and 29. A youth bulge is prominent in several Asian countries in general and Muslim-majority countries in particular.

For example, according to UN estimates, in 2026, Gen Z constitutes 30.5% of the population in Pakistan. The proportion is the same or higher in Afghanistan, where 31.8% of the population falls within this age group. The percentage of youth ranges from 27.5% to 30% in India, Egypt, Bhutan, Jordan, Bangladesh, Yemen, and Nepal; from 25.3% to 26.5% in Morocco, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia; from 21.5% to 23.5% in Iran, the Maldives, Algeria, Tunisia, Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Sri Lanka; and from 15.5% to 18.5% in Japan, South Korea, and China.

Thus, across many developing countries in the region with a high percentage of young people, there is concern about the impact of very rapid social change on youth, associated with globalization in general and wider access to social media in particular. Both have positive and negative impacts on the way young people think. In the latter situation, concerns center around conflicting values, which could lead to the political radicalization of youth.

Although scholars have argued for over five decades that youth bulges may contribute to violent conflict and political instability, the importance of the youth bulge has received increasing attention since the beginning of the 21st century. For example, it has been argued by Jack Goldstone, a political demographer, that “youth have played a prominent role in influencing the political process throughout recorded history, and the existence of a ‘youth bulge’ has historically been associated with times of political crisis.”

Thus, large youth groups can bring about change because they are more easily attracted to new ideas and thereby challenge traditional forms of authority. Indeed, youth were the backbone of the French Revolution of 1789, the Russian Revolution of 1917, and the Chinese Revolution of 1949, when each country had a high percentage of youth in its population due to high fertility in the preceding period.


Today, youthful demographics are found principally in countries where average family size tends to be large. Boys grow up in youth-packed neighborhoods where parental authority at home can take a back seat to the power of adolescent males on the streets. Indeed, about two decades ago, Henrik Urdal, a Norwegian political scientist, using time-series data from several countries, concluded “that youth bulges may also increase the risk of terrorism and more spontaneous forms of political violence” and suggested that youth bulges are likely to be a better predictor of low-intensity political violence.

Thus, youth bulges, coupled with a lack of political freedom and social change, contributed to the Arab Spring in several countries about 15 years ago. During this decade, youth in four South Asian countries, being more susceptible to new ideas, challenged authority, which led to political instability and, eventually, the overthrow of governments in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal, countries that were notorious for corruption. More recently, to counter the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), youth in India formed the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) and challenged the authority of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, forcing the Education Minister to resign.

In the 1960s, students were actively involved in opposing the dictatorial rule of Gen. Ayub Khan and, in the following decade, fully supported Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in coming to power. However, for the next three decades, youth in Pakistan took a back seat and remained fairly inactive politically, largely due to the ban on student unions imposed by Gen. Zia over 40 years ago, which eliminated the active role of students in politics.

It is strange that, unlike their South Asian or Arab counterparts, youth have not been at the forefront of challenging established authority in Pakistan since then. However, Imran Khan has revitalized the role of youth in politics, and they have remained the main supporters of PTI for over a decade and a half.

With the growing number of young people in Pakistan—from about 45 million in 2000 to 80 million today—the youth bulge in the country has become quite alarming, particularly when a majority of them are unable to find proper employment due to a lack of training and adequate education and thus remain poor.

Furthermore, with fewer job opportunities available to young males in rural areas, a high proportion of them are migrating to cities. Consequently, while in the 1998 census, 30% of the rural male population was in the 14–29 age group, in urban areas, 35% were so classified in the 2023 census.
So far, youth in Pakistan have not become organized as they have in other South Asian countries. But, like their South Asian counterparts, they also have access to social media. Combined with the frustration caused by large-scale unemployment and a lack of political freedom, this could lead them to express their frustration through street violence.

Perhaps, keeping in view the growing number of young people in the country in general and in urban areas in particular, Mohsin Naqvi, Interior Minister of Pakistan, recently warned that the country’s political system has collapsed and that young people, whom he referred to as “cockroaches,” may soon get together and overturn the system.

Hopefully, those in authority will wake up and take the necessary steps before Pakistani youth take matters into their own hands.

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