Lost Generation

The Pakistan Institute of Education reports that over 26 million children in Pakistan are out of school, including more than 13 million girls. While these statistics might seem straightforward at first glance, they really highlight a serious situation in the country. The number is so huge that it surpasses the combined populations of 22 European countries. In fact, it’s almost equal to the entire population of Australia. Given how worrying this is, it’s important to look into what’s causing it, consider what the future holds for these children, and explore potential solutions at the policy level.

Before delving deeper into the issue, it would be worthwhile to mention the article “Why the Poor Reject Education,” recently written by Shahid Hafiz Kardar, a seasoned economist and former governor of the State Bank of Pakistan. The article focuses on out-of-school children and high dropout rates. While discussing the dismal state of education in Pakistan, Kardar concludes that people stay out of schools not because of a lack of infrastructure or accessibility alone, but because the system fails to deliver the promised returns of education. He elaborates that education is generally directly proportional to higher income; however, in Pakistan, education yields poor economic dividends.

Apart from poor economic returns, a lack of infrastructure, accessibility, and awareness, along with widespread poverty, forms a nexus that pushes children out of schools. According to available statistics, Pakistan lacks the capacity to integrate OOSC into the existing educational setup with its meagre education budget of less than 1 per cent of GDP. The current infrastructure is limited and cannot cater to the needs of an additional 26 million students.

Given the dire situation, it is imperative to shed light on the future of these OOSC. Judging from the present policies and budgetary allocations of both the federal and provincial governments, one can hardly paint an optimistic picture. The current policies of the governments, though strong in rhetoric and weak in implementation, offer little hope. Similarly, the share of education in the national budget remains inadequate.

Policies are tools that help us understand the future direction of any issue. Consistent and sincere policies indicate how a problem will be approached and addressed. The same applies to OOSC. Governments have introduced multiple emergency policies, yet none appear to have produced meaningful results.

To contextualise, the Government of Pakistan introduced the National Education Policy 2009 to address the issue. The policy emphasised free and compulsory education and aimed to improve literacy rates and reduce educational disparities by increasing spending, developing infrastructure, and enhancing teacher training.

In line with the policy, Article 25-A was introduced through the Eighteenth Amendment to the Constitution of Pakistan to provide free and compulsory education to children aged 5 to 16. Yet, it failed to produce meaningful results, as the number of out-of-school children has risen from around 5 million in 2009 to over 26 million in 2026.

In addition to these constitutional and policy measures, similar efforts have been made in recent years. For instance, the Single National Curriculum was introduced. Likewise, the National Education Policy Development Framework 2024 has been adopted to address the issue of OOSC through skill development, IT integration, and teacher training.

The future of out-of-school children remains uncertain unless policy inconsistencies are curbed and unless they are implemented in letter and spirit. If such a huge number of children remains uneducated, Pakistan’s youth bulge could turn from a demographic dividend into a demographic disaster. Illiterate youth would become a burden that the country can scarcely afford. This is because the world has entered a technological sphere in which it is not possible to survive without progress in digital technologies such as AI. And it needs to be reiterated that success in emerging technologies requires good literacy skills.

While the governments in Pakistan may be sincere in their intentions, they need to note that OOSC cannot be brought back to schools through mere policies and good intentions alone. This becomes possible only when more schools are established and more teachers are recruited on merit. This, in turn, requires more resources. Hence, to improve the situation, budgetary allocation for education must be increased to 5 per cent of GDP, as recommended by UNICEF. Otherwise, the future of these children will remain bleak.

As mentioned earlier, many students drop out due to rising poverty levels. This problem can be addressed through conditional cash transfers. In this regard, countries such as India have adopted such policies to encourage female education. Therefore, Pakistan can follow a similar approach.

In addition, the issue of accessibility must be resolved to ensure that out-of-school children, particularly girls, attend educational institutions. Girls’ schools must be established in ways that ensure they are easily accessible to female students. This measure can also help reduce the number of out-of-school children.

While there are many other solutions, including integrating vocational training, promoting public-private partnerships, and strengthening labour laws, the most urgent need is for the government to create more employment opportunities for young people. As stated at the beginning of the article, the majority of students are out of school not merely because of accessibility issues, but because the system fails to provide adequate returns on investment in education. Hence, the government must pay serious attention to this issue, because without sincere implementation, increased investment, and improved economic opportunities, Pakistan may fail to transform its youth population into a productive national asset.