Since the USA has warned that Russia is 70 per cent ready to invade and could overrun Kyiv in few days, debates and concerns have been expressed by analysts, political pundits and experts about prevalent situation. However, Russia has flouted any claim to invade Ukraine and told that its maneuvers are just for its vital security interest and blamed NATO for undermining regional security. However, Ukraine is not on one page. O the first hand, it turns down any risk of invasion, but it is preparing civilians for invasion on the other. Here questions are that if Russia does not plan to invade, why has it massed such high number of soldiers on Ukrainian border? Why are the USA and the NATO taking invasion threats too seriously, if Ukraine is adamant on turning down possibility of any invasion? Is it a tragedy in the making? What will be its consequences?
Before answering these questions, let’s go through the history to determine causes of the emerging crisis in a better way.
Historically, the Russia-Ukrainian crisis is not new and traces back to 2013-14. After its independence, Ukraine set apart its Russian legacy and forged compact ties with the West. And, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych rejected association agreement with the European Union in favour of closer ties with Russia, which, as a consequence, instigated protests and he was removed from power in 2014. In response, as some people believe, Moscow had annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and burdened separatist rebellions for it who broke out in Ukraine’s east.
Then, the blame game started. Ukraine and West blamed Russia for sending its troops and weapons to support the rebels, Moscow defied these claims. Instead, it chastised the US and its NATO allies for weapons and joint drills with Ukraine, which she believed will patronize Ukraine to fight and its regional security will be destabilized.
Coming to the recent situation, simply answering the questions, Russia is afraid of Ukraine’s appetency to join NATO, which Moscow claims is a redline and concerns about the set up of NATO members near its border, which NATO members, as it assumes, will set military training centers that ultimately will give them foothold in the region and will be a looming danger for Russia.
To evade this, Russia, in December, had sent a security demand document to US which was seeking guarantees for halting NATO measures of weapon system that threatens Moscow in close vicinity to its territory. But Russian demands were nixed by the US and NATO. Consequently, as Russia concerns its security interest, it deemed it necessary to place this humongous number of soldiers on the border, but from the USA and NATO it sounds like an imminent tragedy knocking at the door of Ukraine- US intelligence has even predicted number of causalities, if Russia invades.
To assist Ukraine, Pentagon has put 8,500 US troops on standby for an Eastern deployment. To add this, Biden has commanded to deploy additional US troops to Poland, Romania, and Germany to substantiate America’s commitment to NATO’s eastern side amid tensions between Russia and Ukraine, since Poland borders both Russia and Ukraine, and Romania just borders Ukraine. Also, hundreds more infantry troops of the 82nd Airborne Division are expected to arrive at the Rzeszow Jasionka airport, which is 56 miles away from Poland’s border with Ukraine. Besides, NATO is sending ships and jets. Since Ukraine is still not member of NATO, so the US and NATO soldiers cannot enter Ukraine to fight on their behalf.
Apart from them, Germany on its own plans to send a field medical facility but reprobated supplying arms, even after Ukraine embassy’s request with a list pertaining to missile defence system, tools for electronic warfare, night vision goggles, digital radios, radar stations and military ambulances.
Besides their assistance, Ukraine has started drills with civilians to train them for any possible invasion. On the contrast, Olesksiy Reznokov, Minister of Defence of Ukraine, said that the most realistic scenario could be any effort to destabilize Ukraine internally because the Kremlin dreams that they will be warmly welcomed on the streets of Kyiv, Odessa, Dnipro or Lviv. But the reality differs. Actually, this will not happen in the full-scale aggression. And, it is no longer possible to seize administrative buildings, take advantage of pro-soviet population like 2014, so Ukrainians need to be ready for it and fill all gaps.
In response, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that such maneuvers only add to an already tense atmosphere and the US is escalating tensions. Russia is watching such maneuvers with concerns. Also, it is constantly urging American partners to stop escalating tensions on the European continent and accuses the US and the NATO for toiling to contain Russia.
Moreover, there are various other allegations on Moscow that it is set to run a major nuclear weapon exercise in the coming weeks as a caution to NATO. To add, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO General Secretary, told that Russia has already deployed thousands of troops including Spetsnez Special forces, along with Iskander missiles that can be tipped with nukes, fighter jets and S-400 anti-aircraft system. Apart, the NATO has warned that Russia is deploying nuclear-capable missile along with 30,000 troops in Belarus.
Furthermore, some analysts believe Moscow could move on Ukraine to claim a quick, decisive victory and increase its power in future talks about NATO’s expansion and spheres of influence. However, some people claim that NATO allies, exclusively the US, are reluctant to expand their military footprints in the region and further jeopardize their relationship with Moscow.
Afterwards, China sided the Russia in opposing further expansion by NATO and both called on NATO to abandon its ideological approach of Cold War.
After understanding the entire situation, one can simply answer the realise of seriousness of the US and NATO to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict that it is containing Russia more than assisting Ukraine to expand its military foothold. The US and Russia are proven adversaries, who toil to tend to damage each other indirectly or directly. Briefly put, war is not a solution to any conflict and it fuels crisis. To resolve the issue, both countries should come to talks so that without any devastation conflict is settled and any tragedy, which is in the making, should be desisted. 
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