“If you tell the truth too early, you are laughed at; too late, and you are stoned,” says an Iranian proverb — one that fits India, particularly well in the wake of the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s (PCA) ruling that India must uphold the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan and suspend work on a hydro project in Indian-occupied Kashmir. For years, New Delhi has sought to push the limits of the treaty, often treating its provisions as an inconvenience rather than a binding international commitment. To make matters worse, the watershed moment came in April 2025, when India went so far as to suspend the IWT, using the Pahalgam terrorist attack in Indian-occupied Kashmir as a pretext. In this context, the PCA’s ruling is not only a legal setback for New Delhi; it also presents a moral dilemma for the Indian regime led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, reminding him of an undeniable fact: international agreements cannot simply be set aside when political circumstances change, or tensions rise.
The PCA’s ruling did not come out of the blue. The tribunal took considerable time to examine and reassess the possible grounds under customary international law for the drastic measures taken by New Delhi outside the treaty framework. Much to India’s dismay, however, the intergovernmental organisation ultimately found that “there is no rule allowing a state to unilaterally terminate or suspend the operation of a treaty based on its ‘sovereignty’,” as India had argued. The court, based at the Peace Palace in The Hague, examined at length a range of arguments advanced by India, but found none compelling enough to justify New Delhi’s decision to suspend the IWT. The PCA’s ruling also exposes the limits of using water as an instrument of political pressure — an approach New Delhi attempted, but failed to turn into a meaningful strategic advantage. The move was followed by a brief military conflict between Pakistan and India in May 2025, which ended in a humiliating setback for the Indian armed forces. More importantly, New Delhi must understand that the Indus River system is far more than a strategic asset. It is a lifeline for millions of people in both countries. Any attempt to weaponise water for political point-scoring may make for compelling rhetoric, but it carries consequences far beyond the negotiating table. Water and the Indus Waters Treaty have long been contentious issues between India and Pakistan. But India’s unilateral decision to place the accord in abeyance last year elevated the dispute beyond bilateral tensions, turning it into an issue of international concern that demands urgent mediation and sustained diplomacy.
Islamabad has welcomed the ruling, and rightly so. The larger question now is whether New Delhi will accept the PCA’s decision in letter and spirit. Given that further diplomatic and legal setbacks could await India if it rejects the ruling, New Delhi must, at the very least, show some grace and respect the framework of a bilateral yet peaceful agreement that has survived wars, crises and decades of hostility. After all, peace comes not by confronting every problem head-on, but by finding ways to move beyond them.