Cover Story 
 

Cover Story

Great Gulf Realignment

The ongoing rivalry between the United States and Iran has brought about increased political, economic, and strategic challenges throughout the Middle East

By Prof. Dr. Khalida Ghaus | June 2026


Initially, the Israel-US-Iran war and later the US-Iran wars are causing the recalibration of the bilateral relations within the Middle Eastern region. The rethinking and readjustment cleverly introduced a subtle change to the existing strategic framework. This encouraged the Gulf countries to explore new defense and strategic alliances. While they continue to face security threats and focus on long-term economic diversification, the Gulf states have wisely kept a neutral stance. Despite being targeted repeatedly by Iran, they have chosen not to retaliate, demonstrating resilience and prudence. The states, seemingly, are locked in, resorting to military solutions to political crises.

To understand the unfolding developments, it is important to understand the competing narratives of all the parties and untangle the layered history of mistrust and hostilities. Caught up with difficult options available amid new threats requiring the responsible statecraft ship to maintain a delicate balance to avoid divisions amongst the regional countries, maintain relations with Western allies, and manage its relations with Iran.
The Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes a mix of constitutional, absolute, and federal monarchies, has recently been exploring the possibility of transforming into a union by including new member states, aiming to counter Iranian influence in the region. While this idea faced many hurdles and cautious steps over the years, it led to the creation of the Peninsula Shield Force as its military branch in the mid-eighties. At the same time, the security pact offered a platform for coordinated efforts to manage their domestic political opposition.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia strengthened its defence partnership with the United States in 2025 by signing the Strategic Defence Agreement, which aimed to reinforce the security framework, enhance regional deterrence, and cover the seven decades of focus on regional security. Following which, the United States also pledged to defend Qatar’s security, a country designated as a major non-NATO ally. Signing an Executive Order was viewed as a security pact – the US committed to Qatar’s protection against external threats. So do Oman, Bahrain, and Abu Dhabi, which also rely on Western security partnerships.

The post-war strategic directions the Gulf countries will take remain unclear. Sure, the politics of the Gulf Cooperation Council stands exposed; however, with the future of the petrodollar facing unprecedented strain and its monopoly eroding, its relevance in the coming years is questionable. The countries have also begun to show less confidence in the existing security model, and their trust is being eroded.

However, the current disappointment with the existing security framework does not indicate that the Gulf countries would be willing to change the existing equation altogether. Previously, the United States provided these countries with an umbrella of protection through various bilateral defence and strategic agreements. The uncertainty caused initially by the Israeli targeting of Doha, along with the expansionist policies of Israel, has encouraged several countries in the region to diversify their defence and strategic relations. For example, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a Strategic Defence Agreement in September 2025 to strengthen bilateral cooperation and regional stability. The ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran continue to shape the geopolitical environment of the Middle East. The latest proposals exchanged between the two sides have largely failed to produce meaningful diplomatic progress due to the confrontational positions adopted by each party. Iran continues to demand regional peace and sovereignty as key conditions, while the United States maintains a more maximalist strategic approach.


The Middle East has experienced decades of conflict, proxy wars, military confrontations, and diplomatic crises that have produced both regional and global consequences. Major powers have historically attempted to establish influence and dominance in the region, often dividing states into competing blocs. Israel has played a central role in regional politics, particularly through its military capabilities, strategic partnerships, and coercive tactics/ diplomacy to establish its influence over the regional countries.

The politics of the Gulf Cooperation Council stands exposed. However, as the petrodollar faces unprecedented challenges and its dominance begins to fade, its significance in the years ahead might be uncertain.

In response to shifting regional dynamics, several countries have participated in quadrilateral or multilateral strategic frameworks. For instance, during the Syrian conflict, countries such as Turkey, Iran, Russia, and Syria coordinated their efforts to counter regional instability. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Jordan move together to counter Iranian influence, whereas in recent years another strategic alignment involving Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt has begun to emerge, driven primarily by concerns about regional security, Israeli expansionist policies, and shifting geopolitical realities. Foreign ministers and senior officials from these countries have held meetings in Riyadh, Islamabad, and Ankara to discuss cooperation and coordination. Their shared concerns include the increasing influence of Israel and the UAE in the Red Sea region and the broader geopolitical transformation of the Middle East. However, given the changing nature of Middle Eastern alignment, it remains to be seen whether such cooperation can evolve into a fully coordinated and effective strategic bloc.

On the other hand, the UAE, India, Israel, and the United States, as stated earlier, are more transactional and are well calibrated. It focuses on defence, technology, and economic integration through initiatives such as the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This partnership aims to strengthen economic ties, trade routes, technology transfer, and regional connectivity. The United States views this arrangement as a strategic alliance designed to reshape regional geopolitical alignments. Analysts often refer to this grouping as the “West Asian Quad” or “I2U2,” though many observers consider it to be economically driven.

One of the long-standing assumptions in the region has been that the American military presence guarantees the security of the Gulf States. However, recent conflicts and changing political realities have raised questions regarding the long-term reliability of this security framework. Regional countries are increasingly reconsidering their strategic options and are attempting to diversify their diplomatic and defence partnerships. The Gaza conflict and the broader Iran–Israel confrontation have created urgency for regional states to reconsider their strategic priorities. Many countries now recognize that they cannot rely exclusively on the United States for security and must instead pursue balanced regional diplomacy.

The proposed Pakistan-Saudi Arabia-Egypt-Turkey strategic alignment has the potential to strengthen collective regional security. If properly coordinated, such a grouping could respond more effectively to emerging geopolitical threats and regional crises. Pakistan, in particular, may play an important role in bridging differences between Gulf countries and Iran, especially after the earlier diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran facilitated by China.

The rivalry between the United States and Iran has also intensified political, economic, and strategic challenges across the Middle East. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing among both regional and international actors to reduce tensions and prevent further escalation. Nevertheless, responsibility for regional stability largely depends on constructive engagement between Iran and the United States. Pakistan, alongside other regional countries, should continue to foster an environment conducive to dialogue, peace, and cooperation between Iran and the Gulf states. Achieving long-term peace in the Middle East will require careful management of political and security challenges, mutual understanding among regional powers, and sustained diplomatic engagement in both the immediate and distant future.

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