India's Afghanistan Dilemma

The farewell toasts done, national security advisor Ajit Doval rushed to report to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The anxiously waiting chief is already on his third round of gao mutra when Doval walks in with a bulging file and eight desk flags, which he arranges on the coffee table.

Modi, imbibing a big gulp of his preferred beverage, questions, “Ajit, we were the hosts of this Third Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan, so tell me who was rude enough to raise the nonsensical issue of providing urgent humanitarian assistance to the Afghans?”

In attendance were national security advisers/secretaries of security councils: Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhan (Iran), Samat Abish (Kazakhstan), Kamchybek Kydyrshaevich Tashiev (Kyrgyzstan), Nikolai Patrushev (Russia), Nasrullo Mahmudzoda (Tajikistan), Col. Gurbanmyrat Annayev (Turkmenistan), and Viktor Makhmudov (Uzbekistan).

“Beloved Pradhan Mantri, you know Nikolai came to the meeting carrying a tall bottle in a plain brown bag. When I offered him our hallowed gao mutra, he poured some from his bottle into my goblet, quickly downed our gao mutra, and bottomed up his bagged bottle. So, I imagine, what he shared was Spirytus, which I later learnt is the world’s most alcoholic liquor, a murderous 96% ABV. So honestly, I can’t recall who talked about humanitarianism…

“I know, being America’s bulwark against China, we cannot contradict the American policy of starving the Afghans. You may have noticed that in this gathering that I put on a light blue tie on a white shirt, the Israeli flag colours, to signal the Americans of our convergent interests.

“I swear that ISI once again got the better of us. You remember that how, the now former ISI chief, Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed, when confronted by a foreign correspondent in Kabul’s Serena Hotel, said that all will be fine. Indeed, it is going their way.

“Pakistan, predictably, refused to come, as did China. But you saw in the news that while we were meeting, Pakistan fetched the Taliban foreign minister to Islamabad in their own plane. Amir Khan Muttaqi came with a 20-member high-level delegation… finance minister Hidayatullah Badri, industries and trade minister Nooruddin Aziz and senior officials from the aviation ministry… Yes, Pradhan Mantri, if you see ground and even satellite photos, this Serena Hotel looks like s three-floor hotel, but ISI has its nerve center of the fourth and fifth floors…

“The Russians are real put-offs. It was Nikolai who said that lets have this meeting to forge a joint approach for tackling security threats emanating from Afghanistan. And now, I find that Russia is joining China and America in an Extended Troika Meeting on Afghanistan in Islamabad.

“This October 24 drubbing of our team in Dubai was a wake-up call, now our move to isolate Pakistan has been decisively defeated!

“Here, I was trying to walk the thin line that it is fine that America, China, Russia, and Iran are key to solution to Afghanistan, while Pakistan could be kept with limited role, but India is the linchpin. And you have these Big Three being hosted by Pakistan. I see America in a corner, trying to snatch something from the jaws of defeat… why not… China, Russia and Iran have gained more in geopolitical terms by their exit, for which Taliban obviously played a significant role. Never forget that it is for nothing that Imran Khan is called Taliban Khan.”

A downcast Modi intones, “These Afghans are there for three days. Of course, the exchanges will center on mutual relations with a focus on enhanced trade, facilitation of transit trade, cross-border movement, land and aviation links, people-to-people contacts and regional connectivity.

“So, Ajit, would did you rehabilitate from this wreck of a conference you were tricked into by your pal Nikolai?”

“Pradhan Mantri, there is always hope. You know our luck that ahead of Biden’s first planned summit with President Xi Jinping, Secretary of State Blinken says allied nations would respond if China attacked Taiwan. My Exalted Leader, you should call Biden and register India as ally in this campaign. Now, I tell why it is important and why now. During our meeting, I drew their attention to the issue of landlocked countries’ rights enshrined in Part X of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) that gives them the right of access to and from the sea and freedom of transit. So, I impressed upon them that this convention fully applies to India, as it is totally landlocked from Afghanistan. Of course, I only murmured to myself that we want our four consulates back, especially the one in Jalalabad, to keep up our efforts in Pakistan.

“Now in this, Biden is like our Lord Vishnu… Savior, Preserver, and Protector. He can use his influence to get India the UNCLOS status, because like America, India seeks it’s Afghanistan dividends.”