Flashpoint!

The February 2019 Pulwama attack by India drove Pakistan into thinking of retaliation measures. While the country showed its response on February 27, 2019 by downing two Indian military jets and capturing an Indian pilot, it did not go for a ‘first use’ nuke strategy. It is to the advantage of mankind that both countries showed their awareness of the catastrophic consequences of using nuclear weapons. International intervention also helped in defusing tensions between the two countries at that point. As such, there are dim chances of a war between the two neighbours involving nuclear weapons.

Several missile trials have taken place on both sides and most of them have been successful.

The ever-bleeding Kashmir dispute puts brakes on the two countries ever becoming friends. In addition, both India and Pakistan have been engaged in many land and sea disputes, besides reeling under various economic and social problems driven by poverty, illiteracy, health issues, etc. In these circumstances, conventional or unconventional wars and undue competition in nuclear proliferation are not in the interest of either state.

India has a much bigger population than Pakistan’s. If it attempted a nuclear war with Pakistan, it would have many times more casualties. The latest tensions between India and China in the Himalayas could add another nuclear giant to the conflict equation. India has deployed its army on the Chinese front but has avoided nuclear escalation because of this very reason.

The Chinese defence systems are more advanced then India’s. Similar to the Russian S-300, the Chinese have the Hongqi-9 (HQ-9) medium-to-long range, active radar homing surface-to-air defence system. They have also bought the Russian S-400 and are expected to go for the forthcoming S-500 that will be simultaneously capable of tracking a large number of goals, including stealth targets.

Conventional disturbances would continue between both India and Pakistan and there is no stop visible in the near future but both states are not likely to cross the limits in terms of engaging in a nuclear war. There is a nuclear flashpoint between the three South Asian neighbours – namely, China, India and Pakistan. These countries roughly comprise some 40% of the world’s population. If push comes to shove, the world will find Pakistan and China siding with each other and India would be left alone to face these two nations. It would resort to help from such nations as Israel or the United States but they are thousands of miles away. International stakeholders, most of whom India may consider to be its friends, have their own axes to grind. No country, therefore, can afford to get into a nuclear confrontation and thus trigger a situation that would bring vast and undesired damages for most parts of the world.