India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi plans to visit Dhaka in March to join the celebrations marking 50 years of Bangladesh’s independence and the establishment of diplomatic ties between both countries.
India’s ally
Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is regarded as one of India’s most trusted allies in South Asia. She is the daughter of the former president and Prime Minister, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who was assassinated in 1975, and is often referred to as the Father of the Nation. During his time in office, he developed the foreign policy principle of “friendship to all, malice to none” and the current government aims to follow that approach.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina recently told parliament that despite the sharp slowdown in economic growth, caused by the impact of the pandemic, the country had avoided a recession.
However, there remains a problem in the relationship between Bangladesh and Pakistan. The two countries fought a war which led to Bangladesh’s independence in 1971.
Pakistan has been trying to mend ties with Bangladesh, recognising that the two nations share many characteristics, despite animosity left over from the past. However, there is not much traction frm the Bangladesh side.
Rival powers
One perceives many opportunities for more trade between Bangladesh and both China and the United States. The Bangladesh-China Friendship Exhibition Centre opened recently in Purbachal on the outskirts of Dhaka – a classic example of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, focussed on investment in infrastructure projects, designed to foster long-term trade. Meanwhile, the United States has indicated it is prepared to invest in the port of Chittagong, a gateway to Bangladesh’s exports.
The rivalry between the two great powers remains intense and Joe Biden has referred to China as the “most serious competitor” of the United States. It will therefore require much skill on the part of Bangladesh diplomats not to upset either side and to persuade both the US and China to support its own national development agenda. This is particularly important when it comes to tackling the effects of climate change; Bangladesh is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries in this regard.
Soon after his inauguration, President Joe Biden signed an executive order for the United States to rejoin the Paris Agreement and China’s President Xi Jinping has also pledged to work through multinational organisations on climate change issues. China is known to be sympathetic to the problems facing developing countries in Asia, including Bangladesh.
Avoiding recession
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina recently told parliament that despite the sharp slowdown in economic growth, caused by the impact of the pandemic, the country had avoided a recession.
“It was possible to maintain the normal economic situation as the government took special steps to save human lives and face the economic crisis during the coronavirus pandemic,” she told MPs. She also encouraged people to look to the future, saying that if economic growth continued at the rate it was before the pandemic, Bangladesh would be the 25th largest economy in the world by 2035. For that prediction to come true, recovery needs to begin quickly and be sustained on a long term basis.
Terminated expatriates
The key stress factor at home will be the influx of labourers who have lost their jobs abroad because of the pandemic. For these people, known as terminated expatriates, the current situation currently looks grim. The prime minister has put forward a three point plan to help them. The most pressing issue is to ensure that there is adequate food and medical care for the terminated expatriates and their families.
The Bangladesh authorities are in touch with the countries where the people worked and are trying to facilitate the return of lost jobs with all benefits and six months’ salaries. The Bangladesh government is also pressing the destination countries to help create new jobs and set up small industries for migrant workers. None of that sounds easy, especially in the current circumstances.
The fate of the terminated expatriates will depend on the trajectory of the pandemic and its economic impact. That is also the case for many people in developing countries during these uncertain times, including the citizens of other South Asian nations, including India and Pakistan. It is therefore encouraging that Bangladesh recognized that it is not facing these problems alone.
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