Power blinds those who seek it. Infighting in the House of Saud for the throne indicates that ascension of Mohammed bin Salman as the next monarch of Saudi Arabia will not be a cake-walk.
ByHafiz Inam | May 2020
The House of Saud is going through a critical phase as the children and grandchildren of Ibn Saud, the founder of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, are grappling within themselves to assume power. The physical frailty of King Salman bin Abdul Aziz in these times when the kingdom has already locked horns with the belligerent Houthis on its southern border in Yemen, is adding fuel to internal power politics. The rift between Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (also known as MBS) and other power contenders hit the headlines recently when MBS arrested his two archrivals, ex-crown prince Mohammad bin Nayef and Prince Ahmad bin Abdul Aziz, in a bid to thwart an alleged attempt for a coup d'état in the country. Although the Saudi media remains silent on the coup attempts and downplays the ongoing internal power struggle, sources privy to the royal family claim the situation has turned worse and may explode soon.
In the latest sweep, the Crown Prince, acting as a de facto ruler, detained four senior Saudi royals, including Prince Ahmed bin Abdul Aziz – the only surviving full brother of the King, his son, former interior minister and crown prince Mohammad bin Nayef and his younger brother – Nawaf bin Nayef. Among the detainees, the most vocal is Mohammad bin Nayef who once served as interior minister of the country and is considered to have developed close ties with the Americans. During his stint as interior minister between 2012 and 2017, he dealt with the growing threat of extremism with an iron hand in the wake of the Arab Spring and this brought him close to Washington. Later, his nomination as Crown Prince by King Salman in 2015 made him the first grandson of Abdul Aziz to be in line for the throne. However, his foreign contacts and ample governmental experience did not protect him from the wrath of the then Defence Minister Mohammad bin Salman, the king’s son, who replaced Mohammad bin Nayef as Crown Prince in 2017. Since then, the former crown prince has been in hot waters.
The dispute over ascension to the throne is not new in the royal family of Saudi Arabia. When Abdul Aziz died in 1953, he was replaced by his son Saud while his other son, Faisal bin Abdul Aziz, was appointed as Crown Prince. Later, their relations turned sour, resulting in the forced ouster of Saud at the hands of Faisal who became King in 1964. Ensuing power politics has prevailed in the family since then. The late King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz – the predecessor of King Salman – after realizing the need for having a body that would decide the succession to the throne in Saudi Arabia, founded the Allegiance Council in 2007. The Council comprises 28 Saudi royals, including Ibn Saud’s sons, the eldest sons of princes who have died, the king himself and the Crown Prince. The basic law of the country grants the King authority to select the next in line for the throne. However, the Council is entitled to validate the Crown Prince nominated by the King or completely reject the nomination, if need be.
Since its formation, the Council has remained under the King’s thumb and has never tried to exert its position. When King Salman named his son the new Crown Prince in 2017 and the Council approved the decision, it was reported that Prince Ahmad bin Abdul Aziz and Mohammad bin Nayef categorically rejected the King’s nomination in the Council meeting as it was unprecedented in the Kingdom’s history that a King could nominate his son as Crown Prince. Prince Ahmed, being a figure of special gravitas in the family, had previously managed to avoid the Crown Prince’s anguish despite being blunt about his nephew. He did not chew his words while openly condemning the Kingdom’s policies in 2018 during a protest against the royal family in London. He said, “What does this have to do with the Saud? Those responsible are the King and his Crown Prince.” This perhaps irked the Crown Prince who has earned notoriety in silencing dissenting voices in the Kingdom.
Both Prince Ahmed and Mohammad bin Nayef are not power contenders, at least not yet, but they can impede MBS in becoming the next King, in case the present King dies or abdicates the throne due to illness. In the House of Saud, succession has followed the agnatic seniority principle and no grandson of Abdul Aziz has assumed Kingship. Hence, Prince Ahmed can compete with the Crown Prince for the throne as a full brother of Salman. In the same vein, Mohammed bin Nayef, who controlled three armed forces, including the national guards as interior minister in the recent past still holds some sway in the armed forces. This gives him clout over deciding factors that are considered important in a power struggle. As he holds grudges against MBS, it would not be surprising if the latter is wary of the intentions of the former Crown Prince.
Since assuming power in 2017, the Crown Prince has remained suspicious of the loyalty of his family members. To subjugate them, MBS has used all means, ranging from public humiliation and detention to execution: this was evident from the case of his predecessor who was subjected to physical abuse at the hands of MBS’ aides back in 2017. Later, the assets of Mohammad bin Nayef were frozen and he was barred from foreign travel. In the same year, MBS detained a number influential business tycoons and royal family members in the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh on alleged corruption charges. Analysts, however, were of the view that this was an act solidifying his position in the clan. The latest detentions are a sequel to the previous detention spree.
Succession to the throne is lurching in the doldrums in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia where the internal power struggle has intensified after recent apprehensions. The Kingdom is already in hot waters as the Russia-Saudi Arabia oil price war coupled with the coronavirus pandemic is taking its toll on the economic outlook of the world’s largest oil producer. Furthermore, the futile war waged by Saudi Arabia against the Houthis in Yemen has drained the financial resources of the Kingdom. The ruling elite of the country appears less interested in dealing with these huge challenges. The Crown Prince is more focused on nipping the dissenting voices in the House of Saud in the bud by putting those behind bars who dare to flout his authority. Who will win the contest is yet to be seen, but one thing is obvious; Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is too ambitious for power and will leave no stone unturned to pave the way for smooth transfer of power from his father to him.
The House of Saud is going through a critical phase as the children and grandchildren of Ibn Saud, the founder of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, are grappling within themselves to assume power. The physical frailty of King Salman bin Abdul Aziz in these times when the kingdom has already locked horns with the belligerent Houthis on its southern border in Yemen, is adding fuel to internal power politics. The rift between Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (also known as MBS) and other power contenders hit the headlines recently when MBS arrested his two archrivals, ex-crown prince Mohammad bin Nayef and Prince Ahmad bin Abdul Aziz, in a bid to thwart an alleged attempt for a coup d'état in the country. Although the Saudi media remains silent on the coup attempts and downplays the ongoing internal power struggle, sources privy to the royal family claim the situation has turned worse and may explode soon. 
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