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Ghosts of Ethnicity

Witnessing a shift in ethnic politics, the new government in Sri Lanka faces immense challenges, from stabilising a crippled economy to addressing unresolved ethnic grievances.

By Daniyal Talat | June 2025


Sri Lanka’s recent elections have marked a historic political transformation driven by a collective desire to transcend the ethnic and religious divisions that have long defined the nation’s politics. The landslide victory of the National People’s Power (NPP), a coalition led by the leftist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), reflects a public mandate for unity and reform amid severe economic adversity.

For the first time since independence in 1948, a political force has secured widespread support across Sri Lanka’s Sinhala, Tamil, and Muslim communities, signalling a potential shift away from the identity-based politics that have fuelled discord for decades. The NPP’s unprecedented electoral success, winning 159 seats in the 225-member Parliament, including dominance in 21 of 22 electoral districts, has positioned it to implement an ambitious agenda of economic recovery and inclusive governance.

However, the new government faces immense challenges, from stabilising a crippled economy to addressing unresolved ethnic grievances, all while maintaining the fragile coalition of voters that brought it to power. The November 2024 elections underscored a dramatic rejection of Sri Lanka’s traditional political elites. The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), once a dominant force under the Rajapaksa family, was reduced to a mere three seats. At the same time, the United National Party (UNP) and its offshoot, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), also suffered significant losses.

This collapse of established parties reflects public anger over their perceived role in Sri Lanka’s economic collapse, which saw soaring inflation, shortages of essentials, and a default on foreign debt. Historically associated with radical leftist movements, the JVP rebranded itself as a pragmatic alternative through the NPP coalition, emphasising anti-corruption, economic justice, and national unity. Its message resonated not only with the Sinhala majority but also with Tamil and Muslim minorities, who have historically distrusted Sinhala-majority parties due to decades of marginalisation and failed promises of devolution and reconciliation.

The NPP’s success in bridging Sri Lanka’s ethnic divide is perhaps its most remarkable achievement. In the Tamil-majority Northern and Eastern provinces, the coalition outperformed traditional Tamil parties like the Ilankai Thamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK), securing seats in Jaffna and Batticaloa—regions that had long voted almost exclusively for Tamil nationalist candidates. Similarly, the NPP gained traction in Muslim-dominated areas over the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), which had previously monopolised Muslim political representation.

This shift can be attributed to several factors. First, the NPP actively courted minority voters during its campaign, pledging to address longstanding Tamil demands such as the release of political prisoners, the return of military-occupied lands, and reforms to the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA). It also promised to explore alternatives to the contentious 13th Amendment, which governs the devolution of power to provinces, signalling flexibility in addressing Tamil aspirations. Second, disillusionment with traditional minority parties played a role.

Many Tamil and Muslim voters felt these parties had failed to deliver meaningful progress on economic development or political rights, opting instead to prioritise patronage networks. The NPP’s emphasis on economic equity and anti-corruption appealed to voters who were weary of stagnant leadership. The economic crisis served as a unifying force, temporarily overshadowing ethnic tensions. With inflation peaking at over 50% in 2023 and unemployment soaring, communities across Sri Lanka prioritised survival over identity politics. The NPP’s campaign focused on immediate relief, such as subsidies for food and fuel, and long-term structural reforms, including state-led investments in agriculture, tourism, and technology. Its promise to renegotiate International Monetary Fund (IMF) austerity measures while protecting social welfare programs struck a chord with a population battered by years of austerity. However, balancing these promises with fiscal realities will test the government’s resolve. Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring process, initiated under the previous administration, ties the hands of the NPP to some extent.


The coalition has pledged to honour existing agreements with the IMF and bondholders to secure further tranches of aid, but it also aims to soften the impact of austerity on low-income households. For instance, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has vowed to maintain free healthcare and education hallmarks of Sri Lanka’s welfare state while redirecting funds to combat child malnutrition and support disabled citizens. The government’s ability to walk this tightrope— satisfying international creditors while delivering tangible relief to citizens—will determine its longevity.

Beyond the economy, the NPP faces the monumental task of addressing Sri Lanka’s unresolved ethnic conflict. While the coalition’s outreach to minorities during the campaign was a breakthrough, translating symbolic gestures into concrete policy will prove challenging. The Tamil community’s core demands, including accountability for wartime atrocities, demilitarisation of the North and East, and meaningful devolution of power, remain unmet.

The NPP has hinted at a willingness to revisit constitutional reforms, but its ambiguity on replacing the 13th Amendment risks alienating Tamils if progress stalls. Similarly, the absence of Muslim representation in the new cabinet has raised concerns about inclusivity despite the NPP’s electoral gains in Muslim areas. The government’s rejection of a recent UN Human Rights Council resolution extending oversight of Sri Lanka’s reconciliation process further complicates matters.

While the NPP insists on domestic mechanisms for accountability, scepticism persists among victims’ groups, who fear a repeat of past failures. On the international stage, the NPP has pledged a “non-aligned” foreign policy, seeking to balance relations with India, China, and Western powers. This approach aims to attract investment without becoming entangled in geopolitical rivalries—a delicate task given Sri Lanka’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean. The government’s focus on economic diplomacy, including expanding IT exports and tourism, reflects its pragmatic priorities. However, navigating tensions between major powers, particularly over port projects and infrastructure loans, will require deft negotiation.

The NPP’s parliamentary supermajority provides a rare opportunity to enact transformative reforms. President Dissanayake has outlined an ambitious agenda: abolishing the executive presidency, drafting a new constitution, and overhauling governance to combat corruption. These changes could address systemic flaws that have enabled authoritarianism and ethnic majoritarianism. Yet, the risk of overreach looms. Centralising power under the guise of reform, even with popular support, could undermine the coalition’s commitment to pluralism. Moreover, the NPP must avoid the pitfalls of past leftist governments, whose ideological rigidity sometimes stifled economic growth.

Sri Lanka’s political transformation is both promising and precarious. The NPP’s victory demonstrates that economic distress can momentarily bridge deep societal divides, but sustaining this unity requires delivering shared prosperity. The coalition’s success hinges on its ability to translate campaign rhetoric into inclusive governance—ensuring that Tamil and Muslim communities feel represented, that economic recovery benefits all regions, and that democratic institutions are strengthened rather than centralized.

History shows that moments of crisis can catalyse lasting change, but they can also deepen divisions if mismanaged. As Sri Lanka navigates this critical juncture, the world watches to see whether the NPP can fulfill its promise of a united, equitable future—or whether the old ghosts of ethnicity and exclusion will resurface.

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