Power to the President

By Atif Shamim Syed | December 2019

The 8th presidential election in Sri Lanka held on November 16, 2019 was a very closely fought battle between Sajith Premadasa – the candidate from the ruling party, and Gotabaya Rajapaksa – a member of the powerful political family that ruled the country with an iron first for more than a decade.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa won the election by securing 52.25% of the vote. His victory was formally announced by the election commission. Sajith Premadasa – the son of a former president slain by Tamil separatists in 1993 - admitted his defeat.

The elections already noted as highly divisive, were marred with violence from the very beginning. Only a few hours before the start of polling, unidentified gunmen fired on a convoy of Muslim voters. The same convoy was attacked by unknown attackers pelting stones. The election commission received reports from the Tamil-majority north of the country where illegal checkpoints were set up in order to prevent voters from reaching polling stations.

Muslims and Tamils are minorities in Sri Lanka. Both of them do not favour Gotabaya Rajapaksa. The violence incidents may have been engineered to instill fear into the two communities and thus, lower their election participation. Such election tactics are widespread in Sri Lanka which only emerged from a devastating civil war that waged for more than three decades and left thousands dead.

Retired lieutenant-colonel, Gotabaya Rajapaksa is a member of the powerful Rajapaksa clan, and brother of Mahinda Rajapaksa who ruled Sri Lanka from 2005 to 2015 as president. Gotabaya Rajapaksa was said to be representing his clan in these polls because the law does not permit Mahinda Rajapaksa to contest presidential elections for a third time.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa played a pivotal role in crushing the Tamil rebellion in 2009 during the tenure of his brother Mahinda. Thousands of Tamils perished during the final days of the government offensive, including innocent civilians. This widespread bloodshed finally put an end to the devastating civil war.

Gotabaya is revered by Sri Lanka’s Sinhalese majority for his role in extinguishing the LTTE flame, but he is equally hated by minority Tamils who make up around 15% of the population. Gotabaya Rajapaksa is accused of leading death squads that abducted and killed dozens of Tamils during the final days of the war.

After the terrorist attack in Sri Lanka on April 21 that claimed 269 lives, Gotabaya Rajapaksa turned his guns towards another minority – Muslims. During the recent elections campaign, he presented himself as a strongman who will stand up to Muslim extremism and fight corruption at all levels. Sinhalese Buddhists enthusiastically rallied behind Gotabaya hoping that he will rein in minority Muslims within the country who make up around 10% of the population.

There is apprehension within the political circles that Gotabaya will try to repeal a constitutional amendment that curbed some of the president’s powers and handed them over to the parliament. If the 19th amendment is repealed, it will pave the way for a majority authoritative regime in the country that will further aggravate the grievances of already disenchanted minorities.

The Tamil minority of Sri Lanka is mostly settled in the north of the country. They are apprehensive of another Rajapaska from the powerful clan, taking the reins of the country again. They turned out in large numbers during the elections, enabling Sajith Premadasa to sweep the northern region. Yet, the Tamil vote had little impact on the overall election result. This could further polarize an already divided country because Tamils will come to realize that the democratic process will always be favouring the majority Sinhalese from the South. This could become a reason for further friction, and even widespread rebellion within the region in the long run.

India is watching the political developments in Sri Lanka with great caution. In 2014, during an official visit, Indian politicians tried to lean-in on Gotabaya and impressed upon him that they will not allow Chinese warships to enter Colombo. Gotabaya didn’t pay heed to these threats. Only a week after his return, two Chinese vessels entered Colombo harbour and remained there for five days.

Gotabaya has repeatedly accused India of having manipulated the last Sri Lankan elections through its agents. In an interview last year, he stated that New Delhi had refused to engage with him when he was leading the opposition.

During a rally in October, Gotabaya stated that he will not let his country become a pawn in the regional power struggle. However, his tilt towards China is obvious, given a rather spiteful relationship with the US since the latter’s indignation at his role in crushing the Tamil rebellion with the use of disproportionate force.

Sri Lanka is heavily indebted to China. The former government, despite being at odds with the Chinese, was unable to curb their influence in the country. Gotabaya is already pro-Chinese. This means that the Chinese influence will increase in Sri Lanka – something that the Modi government will not like at all.

However, India can find some solace in the fact that the new Sri Lankan president will need its help while dealing with minorities in the Tamil North where he failed to gain a single seat. The area is closely linked with India’s Tamil Nadu state. It is in the best interest of both countries to work together for development in the region in order to pacify Tamils on both sides of the border.

Modi’s immediate tweet congratulating Gotabaya Rajapaksa on his election victory may have been an acknowledgement of this fact. It now remains to be seen how President Gotabaya Rajapaksa will see the recent developments and respond to them while being careful not to annoy his Chinese friends.

Power to the President

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