Taliban Options

Pakistan and Iran have always shown their deep concern over the situation in Afghanistan. During former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s tenure, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) conference was held twice in Islamabad for catering to the economic and humanitarian crisis after the military withdrawal of the United States of America and its NATO allies and partners from the Afghan region.

Various efforts from Pakistan have been seen in the past for an amicable solution to Afghanistan that took the Taliban and the US to meet at one table in Doha, Qatar. The meeting was aimed to expedite the US departure from Afghanistan, based on the promises of provision and implementation of fundamental human rights by the Taliban. Regarding the current government of Shahbaz Sharif, they have shown no effective and aggressive efforts in expediting the recognition of the Taliban-led government, primarily due to the current political upheavals where Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has claimed involvement of foreign hand of the US in collusion with the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), a coalition of 11 political parties, in ousting the government of Imran Khan through a no-confidence motion.

In reality, Pakistan looks for a stable neighbour as it would not be able to accommodate such a large number of Afghan refugees as previously seen in Gen. Zia’s era during the Soviet invasion (1979-1989). Presently, Pakistan is facing an economic as well as humanitarian crisis due to political upheavals and the floods that have affected 33 million people all over the country and severely destroyed 80 districts out of 160.

On the other hand, tension was also observed over the fencing on the Pak-Afghan border (2600 km), as well as rising terrorism issues in the past. Both countries in reality cannot afford to lose each other’s support. Afghanistan’s trade mostly crosses through Pakistan, and from time to time attacks from Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) are made on the Pak-Afghan border. It seems the Taliban are the effective mediators in this case.

So far, Pakistan is facing difficulty in shaping a clear policy towards the Taliban government but has welcomed them. Pakistan has always encouraged economic and diplomatic ties at the international level as isolation could lead to an impoverished Afghanistan and would push the Afghans to Pakistan as the easiest and most accessible country. It would not be favourable to Pakistan as the country itself is facing deeply challenging times.

According to the UNHCR reports, from January 2021 to February 2022, Pakistan received 11,7547 refugees from Afghanistan. ‘Priority 1’ (P-1) is dedicated to vulnerable Afghans, who are being categorized by the UNHCR. Most of them are educated and are waiting for their paperwork to be completed. The process normally takes 14-18 months. There is a requirement from Pakistan to facilitate the Afghan immigration process.

The Afghan currency has bounced back and exports have increased, while imports have declined. The economic situation is not in a free fall anymore, but it cannot be said to be stable. According to a World Bank survey, 70% of Afghans still cannot afford food and other necessities. Only foreign aid is helping them to survive. At present, inflation is on the rise due to the rising global cost of food and energy prices, in place of exchange rate depreciation or other internal factors.

Pakistan can play a beneficial role in the future by considering the following points:
• The geo-economic connectivity between the two countries will be expedited after the economic crunch (as Pakistan has placed restrictions on imports on some items). According to the UN COMTRADE database on international trade, Pakistan’s imports from Afghanistan during 2021 were US $638.6 million. In this regard, the coal imported by Pakistan from Afghanistan by private companies in mid-2022 is expected to fulfil their requirement. On the other side, Afghan has imposed 30% import tax to cater to its fragile economy. Both countries are observed fulfilling their requirements.
• Pakistan should keep road corridors open on humanitarian grounds.
• The current government should raise the voice of Afghans in convincing international aid agencies in catering to the economic and humanitarian crisis.
• The fundamental human rights should be raised from time to time in assisting Afghans to create a comfortable living zone for their citizens.
• There is a need for mutual grounds and agreement on controlling TTP which is a threat to the internal security of Pakistan and Afghanistan.
• Counselling and realization should be brought for creating a friendly relationship with the U.S. and the European Union member states by showing respect towards basic human fundamental rights to avoid restrictions.
• Pakistan’s efforts would surely be more effective in stabilizing and bridging the gap between the Afghan government and other countries, especially Muslim neighbouring countries.
• Regarding the fencing issue, Afghans are suggested to show flexibility to deal with security threats.
The Taliban-led government should show flexibility towards international demands. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan could manage their mutual problems by having respect for each other’s reservations and constraints.