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Challenges and Spoilers

The future of the Afghan peace process in light of impending challenges, possible spoilers and priorities of the new US administration, needs to be explored.

By Amjad Ali | March 2021

Challenges-Spoilers

Afghanistan has faced one of the worst spates of violence in 2020. The Kabul administration as well as the Taliban outfit, in order to overpower the other at the negotiations table, have been unceasingly unleashing violence against each other. The victims, unfortunately, have been the citizens. The challenges to the Afghan peace process are never-ending; nevertheless, there is hope that this year will usher in peace and prosperity in the warn-torn country.

The US-Taliban agreement, which was signed on 29 February 2020, included the timeline for the US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, prisoners’ swap between the Kabul administration and Taliban, and guarantees on part of the Taliban to sever ties with the foreign militant groups, including Al-Qaeda.

The agreement was to pave the way for intra-Afghan negotiations that were intricately complex and befuddling. However, the Afghan government refused to comply with the clause of the agreement related to a prisoners’ swap between the Taliban and Kabul on the grounds that it was an agreement between the Taliban and the United States, and Kabul was not part of the agreement.

The delay in the implementation resulted in a surge of violence that created suspicions that a derailment of the peace process was in the offing and Afghanistan might be thrust into perpetual violence again.

Fortunately, mediation efforts by the US and Pakistan helped in bringing the two recalcitrant factions to the table.

When there is talk of the spoilers at play in the Afghan peace process, it is often reminded that it is India that may play this role. Needless to say, India is one of the beneficiaries of pervasive instability in Afghanistan. It has used this platform to wreak havoc in Pakistan as well by whipping up insurgency and terrorism.

It can of course be said that likely spoilers can well be the Afghans themselves. No external power, whether India or other state or non-state actor, can be a more potent threat to the intra-Afghan peace process than the Afghan factional spoilers .

Islamic State terrorists have perpetrated egregious acts of terrorism in Afghanistan and have only managed to strengthen their foothold in the war-ravaged country due to the mistrust amongst the Afghans. Once the people of Afghanistan decide to rise above their factional differences and forge intra-Afghan unity, neither India, nor ISIS or any other non-state actor can dare to derail the process.

The two predecessors of former President Trump made the half-baked effort to steer the peace process in Afghanistan, though they could not materialise their plans.

On the flip side, Trump took a surprising decision to seek a negotiated settlement with the Taliban. Consequently, a US-Taliban agreement was signed that paved the way for intra-Afghan negotiations.

This was, nevertheless, least expected from Donald Trump, keeping in view his fickle temperament to portray himself as an authoritative and aggressive President, as he dropped the MOAB (Mother of All Bombs) in Nangarhar province of Afghanistan on 13 April, 2007.

Once again, the controversial elections in the US put a question mark on the prospects of the peace process in Afghanistan. The priorities of the Democrat President Biden may diverge from former President Trump, as he has vowed to maintain a sizeable presence of US troops for conducting Special Operations. This move will not be acceptable to the Taliban.

Recently, National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan contacted his Afghan counterpart Hamdullah Mohib and apprised him of the United States’ intention to review the deal to check whether the Taliban were living up to the pledges they had made. However, Sullivan emphasized that the US would support the peace process with a robust and regional diplomatic effort, which would aim to help the two sides achieve a durable and just political settlement and permanent ceasefire.

2020 witnessed a surge in violence in Afghanistan at an exponential rate. Both sides wanted to strengthen their bargaining position at the negotiation table prior to the intra-Afghan process. They whipped up violent attacks against each other. The foreign fighters, including ISIS, also strengthened their stronghold and perpetrated heinous crimes such as the Kabul University attack.

Moreover, 2020 was also a deadly year for Afghan children. A Save the Children report said, “It’s been a terrible year for the children of Afghanistan, nearly 1,900 of whom have been killed or maimed in the fighting. Their schools have been attacked, and universities too. Not even hospitals and clinics have been spared in the conflict.”

The intra-Afghan negotiations started in September 2020. However, the deadlocks between these factions prevented them from proceeding any further. With mediatory efforts from the US and Pakistan, the Afghan peace process has started again and the parties have agreed to the rules and procedures for future talks.

The irritants between the two parties include announcement of a permanent ceasefire, a power-sharing agreement between different Afghan factions, disarming Taliban fighters, women and minorities’ rights, and a future constitution. The parties have to find a common ground on these issues.

For adurable peace in Afghanistan, the following steps are recommended:
(a) Afghan factions have realised that the only solution to a quagmire prevalent in their motherland lies in negotiations. They have never achieved peace through violent means; rather, chaos and political outcry have only aggravated their woes. As a result, they are willing and flexible to move forward. It will not be easy, but an arduous process that requires maturity, patience and the realisation to move forward.
(b) The future constitutional scheme should be accommodative for women, minorities and other communal factions.
(c) After disarming, the Taliban fighters should be rehabilitated and merged with the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces (ANDSF).
(d) Western countries should continue supporting Afghanistan through financial aid up to 2030. This will also provide an opportunity to these countries to advance democratic ideals and human rights in a war-torn Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Kabul should diversify its economy to a sustainable level.
(e) Afghanistan must ensure that its territory is not being used against Pakistan by India, and neither are anti-Pakistan terrorists and insurgents sheltered in Afghanistan.
(f) Transit trade should be carried out between India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Central Asian Republics (CARs). This will add to shared prosperity as well as create economic interdependence amongst these states which, in turn, will pave the way for long-lasting peace.

Lastly, it is time for the Afghans to seize this historic opportunity to rise above factionalism and establish peace that promises prosperity and a dignified life to all the Afghans. Furthermore, transit trade between the South Asian and Central Asian states will usher in a progressive new dawn. Other stakeholders such as China, Pakistan and the United States have to ‘do more’ to successfully steer the negotiations in the right direction.

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