The phenomenon of globalization has never been manifested as brilliantly as what COVID-19 has done. While on the one hand, globalization is being partly blamed for the fast and rampant spread of the disease, on the other, globalization itself is projected to be the cause of suffering. The ease of mobility and transportation the world cherished in the pre-COVID-19 age is widely being suggested to be history. The transport and tourism industry has arguably been hit the worst. Projections suggest it would take decades for the aviation industry to recover. The unenviable future of this industry can be gauged from the fact that Warren Buffett, one of the world’s most successful investors, has offloaded his shares in US airlines at a hefty loss, stating "the world has changed" because of the coronavirus.
Besides the loss of lives, the financial fallout of COVID-19 is going to be colossal for a major proportion of the world population. According to the UN Labor Agency, around half of the global workforce could see their livelihoods destroyed. Financial suffering may come in the form of job losses, reduced working hours and pay slashes. Particularly, for the developing countries, the socio-economic cost of the pandemic is going to be immense as hundreds of millions could be pushed below the poverty line.
While social distancing is sought to be the best possible solution to the problem for the time being, to many it comes at a cost. Besides offering some extra benefits such as providing an opportunity to reflect and strengthen personal/family bonds and to catch up with certain types of outstanding tasks, social distancing can also have major and, in some cases, long-term implications on physical and mental health. Already there are warnings from experts that forced isolation can have serious effects on physical and psychological well-being. A rise in domestic violence and family breakups is also being recorded worldwide. While social distancing measures are being gradually eased off in some parts of the world, the mood is still skeptical. Many experts in the US and Europe are warning that social distancing may have to continue in various forms up to 2022 or until a vaccine is developed.
While social distancing is sought to be the best possible solution to the problem for the time being, to many it comes at a cost.
COVID-19 is also bound to have implications on the global geopolitical landscape. There is already a blame game between the US and China over the origin and handling of the virus and threats of economic repercussions are also surfacing. At the national level, especially in the developing and poor countries, increased unemployment and economic stresses may lead to social unrest and would undermine the writ of the state, weakening democratic institutions.
Another fear being expressed by some is the price individuals and societies may have to pay in the form of curbed freedoms. The pandemic can potentially be exploited by governments and others to extend their influence and control over lifestyles and values of individuals and society. The world may be getting closer to becoming a global Big Brother society.
It is beyond doubt that COVID-19 has changed the world forever. Even if a cure is available within months, the psychological impact, the fear factor and uncertainties around it will remain for a long time. There will be many things that will not return to the pre-COVID-19 era. The world has to live with a new normal, however inconvenient it may be.
However, every crisis has an opportunity. As Winston Churchill said “Never let a good crisis go to waste”. Therefore, there are many positives that can be cultivated. Technology and especially artificial intelligence (AI) can be carefully embedded into human activities so that people are better prepared for such crises in future. New academic and learning techniques can be developed and matured. While many existing commercial activities and business models would become obsolete, there will be new avenues to revamp economic activities. The COVID-19 lockdown has also allowed Mother Nature to readjust - wildlife is flourishing, pollution levels have gone down and the emission of greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide is at the lowest level in decades.
It is time for mankind to reflect and demonstrate sanity. The fragility of modern technological and economic forces has been well exposed by the COVID-19. It is time to explore more resilient lifestyles based on sustainable technologies and practices. Human interaction with nature and natural resources needs a reset. It is high time for societies and nations to contemplate a future based un commonalities and cooperation instead of hostilities and biases.
The Future World Architecture
The influence of COVID-19 on the architecture of the prevailing world order needs to be examined. The world already has demographic problems, a worsening ecology and regional conflicts.
Most countries of the world which enjoy a high standard of living have adopted the liberal model. Attempts to replicate it in some parts of the world can lead to devastating consequences as has happened in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Afghanistan. The migration flows caused by these conflicts and the intensification of radical movements ultimately threaten the same liberal countries which promote these values.
In the near future, none of the ‘liberal’ countries are likely to win. During the Cold War, the word “coexistence” was in common use among politicians. Obviously, it is time to re-introduce this concept into modern international relations.
After the current Covid-19 pandemic, there may be a return to normal, in the context of the economic crisis. The international community can mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 only through cooperation and a strengthening of the institutions of multilateralism. There are many examples of how, under quarantine, ordinary people have tried to help each other. Now it’s up to the leaders of the states. Nevertheless, they should remember that this is a completely different world, different from the times of the First World War, the “Spanish flu” pandemic, the Great Depression, or the aftermath of the Second World War.
In increasingly complex societies, the role of the state has inevitably intensified. In the near future and in connection with the impending economic crisis, only the bureaucratically and administratively effective nations will be able to provide a minimum standard of welfare for their citizens. The idea of a universal minimum wage will also emerge in connection with the crisis after automation of production and resulting job cuts.
Some significant changes post-Covid-19:
- Unprecedented toll on healthcare workers
During the global tragedy, it’s not only the economy or the population that have been affected but also the healthcare professionals on the frontlines. Despite a shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE), they show up for work using DIY solutions with a high risk of being infected. Many are working overtime and witness patient after patient succumb to the disease.
- Diminishing trust in the globalized world
In the pre-pandemic globalized world, people enjoyed a certain level of trust. They could travel almost without limitations, meet people without restrictions and order products worldwide. This will simply change after billions of people had to stay indoors for weeks.Now you will not be able to travel that freely or enjoy the supply chains of the world so easily. You will think twice before going somewhere or to meet someone. These trends will take place for months after lockdowns are lifted.
- Focus on the healthcare system
The pandemic has highlighted the shortcomings of healthcare systems worldwide. The overburdened hospitals need an upgrade on every level. This will be needed to ensure a safe environment for the personnel and patients, as well to better cope with any emergency situations.
This is an excellent summary of the many aspects of COVID-19 that has been discussed and debated in the media. A great reading!