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The 100-year Wait

Once the Treaty of Lausanne completes its 100-year term in 2023, many new opportunities will emerge for Türkiye to become a strong regional power.

By Waseem Shabbir Arain | November 2022

The completion of a hundred years' old peace agreement named "Treaty of Lausanne" by 2023 is not far away. For the last few years, debates among various geopolitical and geostrategic thinkers have gained momentum about this conundrum. During the last decade, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emerged as a vibrant leader of international prominence in all political spheres. He is fully determined about making Turkey, rechristened as Türkiye, great again through a larger role in the world based on trade, diplomacy and ambitious efforts at intensifying its military profile in the region. Since Recep Erdogan has been pursuing a more assertive and nationalistic foreign policy, s it shows his unwavering commitment to making Türkiye proud of its glorious past.

Speaking at the Anatolian Media Awards ceremony, President Erdogan said, “We work day and night to achieve Turkey’s goals for 2023 in accordance with the responsibility we have undertaken and the promise we have made”. He also declared that the era beyond 2023 will be a new epoch of innumerable and resounding victories and conquests, enabling Turkey to transform the future of the entire region as per its will.

However, the end of the Lausanne Treaty by 2023 gives birth to so many questions: Will Türkiye be able to reclaim its lost empire? Will it be in a position to thrive economically? Will it emerge as a dominant power across Europe and the Middle East? Will it still be a member of NATO? To answer all these questions, we have to understand the prevailing geopolitical dynamics by delving into the historic perspective of the Lausanne Treaty signed on July 24, 1923 for a hundred years.

The Ottoman Empire was one of the mightiest and longest lasting dynasties in world history. This Islamic superpower ruled large areas of the Middle East, Eastern Europe and North Africa for more than 600 years, from the 13th century to the early years of the 20th century. The empire started to decline for several reasons which included its over-dependence on agriculture and not making advancements in industrial sectors. The majority of its population was uneducated and it lacked research and scholarship. The heterogeneous nature of all units with a blend of multiple ethnicities under the empire was unable to form into a single whole. Moreover, its destructive rivalry with the Soviet Union and choosing the wrong side with Germany, Bulgaria and Austro-Hungry as central powers, became the significant cause of its demise with severe defeat at the hands of allied powers in First World War.

The “Treaty of Severe” was signed between the allied powers and the Ottoman Empire on August, 10, 1920 which actually marked the beginning of partition and dismemberment of various units of the empire. The Treaty ceded large parts of the Ottoman Empire to France, the United Kingdom, Greece, and Italy, and created large occupation zones within the Ottoman state. However, this peace accord was totally unacceptable for the then ruler Mustafa Kamal Ataturk which ignited the Turks’ War of Independence led by Kamal to defeat the combined armies of the signatories of the Treaty of Severe. In that bloody war, Turks achieved a tremendous victory, especially over Greece, between 1922 and 1923, paving the way for the Treaty of Lausanne.


This international accord was signed at the Beau Rivage Plus Hotel of Lausanne, Switzerland. Signatories of the treaty were the victorious powers of the First World War, especially Britain, France, Italy and the Ottoman Empire. On the basis of the treaty, the Ottoman Empire was divided, new boundaries were demarcated and this led to the establishment of the modern Turkish national state under the presidency of Mustafa Kamal Ataturk with Ankara as its capital. Turkey had to renounce its sovereignty over Cyprus, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Iraq, the Levant and Macedonia, except cities which were located in Syria such as Urfa, Adana, Gaziantep, Kells and Mrash. This also led to the demarcation of the borders of Greece and Bulgaria with the Turkish state, which maintained the annexation of Istanbul. As per the clauses of the Treaty of Lausanne, Turkey was restricted from drilling for oil and natural resources. The waters of the Bosphorus Strait were declared as an international route and opened for shipping. The Treaty of Severe was abolished. New laws and principles were formulated for Turkish water straits, traffic rules, and navigation.

According to the international law, treaties automatically come to their conclusion after 100 years. In this perspective, there are two schools of thought: one favours expiration after 100 years and the other is adamant on believing that once an internationally stipulated agreement is signed, it cannot expire as long as the signatory countries continue to exist. They are of the view that the Treaty of Versailles should have ended by now since the treaty, signed on 28 June, 1919, has exceeded its 100 years.

However, if the Treaty of Lausanne is invalidated by 2023, it will definitely buttress Türkiye’s position to a considerable extent. The country will have the right of drilling for oil on its own soil. It will also collect toll from every ship using the Bosphorus Strait. There would be greater chances for Türkiye to leave the NATO alliance and the country will be able to formulate its laws and policies independently. All these advantages will certainly add to its sphere of influence across the region that will allow it to thrive economically.

Nevertheless, reverting to the Ottoman Caliphate and regaining control on abandoned territories looks an ambitious move. For instance, had it been this convenient to get back and dominate the areas once lost, today’s Russia would have regained to the former Soviet Union’s galory with Poland and the Central Asian Republics as its part. The current political dynamics have strengthened economically and are in a stronger position to defend their territorial integrity and safeguard their sovereignty.

Turkish President Recep Erdogan is becoming actively engaged in global politics to have his say at the international level. The examples are: The conversion of Hagia Sofia Museum into a Mosque on July 24, 2020, the purchase of S-400 missile defence system from Russia, a military crackdown against the Kurdish Afrin District of northwest Syria, and the occupation of northern Syria through Operation Euphrates Shield by Turkish forces in Syrian Civil War. Along with that, Erdogan’s active role in Afghanistan’s peace process is pne of the key developments associated with Türkiye as an emerging player on the global stage.

Erdogan’s intensive efforts at enhancing the country’s influence across the region and looking forward to leading the Muslim world is what the West and its allies cannot afford. Moreover, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia have never been in cordial relations due to their diverging tendencies over a number of issues such as the Palestine conflict and their varying positions on Iran, Qatar, and Yemen. The conflicting interests between Türkiye and Saudi Arabia regarding the Syrian conflict have brought both countries to an open antagonism. The complexities of these conflicts have drawn Türkiye closer to Russia, China and Iran. However, the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia stand united on the opposite side. Nevertheless, the nexus of China, Russia and Iran seems to be a better fit for Türkiye than NATO and any other alliance.

Considering the changing geopolitical trends, Pakistan needs to revisit its foreign policy and formulate a strategy to seize the opportunities that Turkey may offer if it succeeds in implementing the stipulated accord. Pakistan and Türkiye can both seek mutual cooperation in various fields, including development of the military arsenal, trade and commerce, engineering and industrial zones, infrastructure development, tourism industry, areas of medicine and many more.

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