Now or Never

By Meriam Sabih | July 2020

On May 17, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah signed a power sharing deal to form an inclusive government that will allow the two opponents to act on a united front towards peace in the face of the Taliban, ISIS, and other obstacles facing Afghanistan. According to the agreement Dr. Abdullah will appoint half of the cabinet and will head the negotiations with the Taliban. After the signing ceremony, Dr. Abdullah quickly dropped the title “President of Afghanistan’’ from his twitter handle marking the change.

In the past, Abdullah has been a close aide of Ahmad Shah Masood and a staunch opponent of the Taliban, but with his new title as the Chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation, he has vowed to work with ‘all sides.’ These are hopeful signs that the fragile intra-Afghan peace process can possibly move forward and its is good news for the international community to see the bitter political stalemate coming to an end. In a series of tweets, Abdullah stated, “...we cannot afford to squander opportunities and international goodwill, especially for a just and comprehensive peace through talks.” He may be referring to the American administration’s consistent and desperate efforts to see a semblance of peace in the country before the re-election campaign of President Donald Trump.

The power sharing agreement also came at a difficult time for the country after a shocking terror attack on a maternity ward at Dasht-e-Barchi Hospital in Kabul. Over twenty people lost their lives in the attack, most of them mothers and two babies who had just entered the world. News of the horrific attack on a maternity ward and heartbreaking accounts of four hours of terror experienced by mothers and their newborn babies defenceless in the face of the senseless violence, shook people around the world. Though believed to be an act of ISIS, it served as a stark reminder to Afghans that the violence in the country, including from the Taliban, has gone too far. After a wave of other attacks around the country by the Taliban, President Ashraf Ghani announced the resumption of offensive attacks on the Taliban after they refused repeated calls for a cease-fire.

In the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, attacks from the Taliban only continued to rise rather than show reprieve. This led to a clarification from the United States that the peace deal meant an unwritten agreement for all sides for an 80% reduction in violence. Col Sonny Legget clarified and also gave a warning to the Taliban against the sharp increase in violence that the United States was committed to continue to support “their Afghan brothers and sisters” and that there would be consequences if the increased scale of violence continues. According to Afghan officials, the Taliban have orchestrated over 3,800 attacks since the signing of the historic deal for peace with the United States. Afghan generals have also accused the Taliban of continuing to have close ties with terror groups such as Al Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Taiba, which, if true, would be in defiance of a key promise the Taliban have made to the United States.

The recent political quarrelling between President Ashraf Ghani and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah in which each had their own inauguration ceremonies had also resulted in the US announcing they would cut $1 billion in aid. Unusually harsh language was used by Secretary Pompeo marking the administration’s clear frustrations. In a statement Pompeo had reprimanded the two leaders stating, “Their failure has harmed U.S.-Afghan relations and, sadly, dishonours those Afghan, Americans, and coalition partners who have sacrificed their lives and treasure in the struggle to build a new future for this country.” The attempts to reconcile the two were important enough for Pompeo to travel to Afghanistan to personally meet with all sides at the height of the global Covid-19 pandemic.

President Trump is keen to prove to his supporters not only that he has significantly reduced the presence of troops in the region, signalling the United States pulling out of Afghanistan, but also that he can push both sides to a dialogue for peace. A recent Wall Street Journal editorial has warned President Trump to not act impulsively in Afghanistan nor to give the wrong signal to the Taliban that the United States wants to pull out without consequences. President Trump responded by saying that the United States “except for the beginning, never really fought to win.”

The risks of the intra-Afghan dialogue falling apart could mean that continued violence can quickly spiral out of control during the current global Covid-19 pandemic. If the intra-Afghan talks remain at a standstill and violence does not let down, there can be increased calls from the Afghan public to take a stricter stance against the Taliban and other groups similar to the reaction of the Pakistani public after the horrific attack on the Army Public school. This has already taken place with the recent attack on the Kabul maternity ward and pressure on the Afghan government to resume offensive attacks on the Taliban. The Afghan people may demand that the war be fought to win against the Taliban instead of what President Trump called “policing.” This would certainly be bad news for the Trump administration’s attempts for dialogue.

The Taliban had earlier rejected calls by the government for a cease-fire during the holy month of Ramadan. They have also walked out of meetings with the Afghan government over disputes of the release of prisoners. Abdullah Abdullah had previously criticized Ghani’s “7 Point Peace Plan” as an “unrealistic wish list.” It is now to be seen how the peace deal negotiations with the Taliban will resume. Will the Taliban be willing to work with Abdullah Abdullah? In-fighting between the political groups have further complicated an already complicated matter and weakened the stance of the government. Mike Pompeo also expressed his regrets on the delays while applauding the power sharing agreement.

One thing is for sure, that growing consensus and unity will do Afghanistan as a nation much good. Right now the Afghan people are trying to build consensus and unite for peace. All sides should show that they care more for peace and for Afghanistan than for themselves. The ball is in the court of the Taliban to agree to resume talks, work towards a ceasefire, and show they are serious in providing relief to the Afghan people who have suffered for decades. If not after the attack on newborn babies and a global pandemic which has cost hundreds of thousands of lives, then when?