Cover Story 
 

Cover Story

Iran Today, Pakistan Tomorrow?

In the event of Iran’s collapse, Israel, India, and the United States may perceive an opportunity to target Pakistan with the objective of dismantling its nuclear assets and missile programs

By Dr. Moonis Ahmar | April 2026


Is Iran a defense line for Pakistan? If Iran surrenders, will it be Pakistan’s turn? How Pakistan’s nuclear and missile stockpile is considered a threat to Israel, and to what extent Islamabad is ready to face the implications of the Gulf War?

These are the questions that are raised following the U.S-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28. Pakistan’s ostensible neutrality in the Gulf War will, however, not prevent a future attack on the world’s only Islamic nuclear state. With a population of only 93 million and facing colossal U.S-Israeli destruction, Iran is resilient, courageous, and motivated, but can Pakistan, with a population of 225 million faces a predictable Israeli attack in connivance with the United States and India, or will it capitulate without fighting?

In a situation when the Pak-Saudi defense pact has been activated, and Islamabad has pledged to side with Riyadh in case of an external threat, one needs to examine the fact that such a position taken by Islamabad will cause a direct conflict with Tehran. The public opinion of Pakistan is heavily charged against the United States and Israel, and the sufferings of the Iranian people because of the U.S.-Israeli attack have led to local outrage. Walking a tightrope, Pakistan is facing a devil and a deep blue sea-like situation. If Pakistan fails to side with Saudi Arabia and the United States against Iran, it will face strategic and economic ramifications. If it covertly helps Iran to deal with foreign aggression, the outcome will be the activation of the Israeli plan to target Pakistan with Indian and U.S. assistance.

f it is Iran today, tomorrow it will be Pakistan, may not be a myth but a reality. For a long time, Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions have been termed as a formidable threat to Israel. There is public pressure on the Pakistani establishment to activate its nuclear shield in favor of Iran and deter Israel from its ongoing attacks against Tehran. But in the last month or so, Islamabad has proved that it has tilted in favor of the U.S and Saudi Arabia by siding against Iran in the U.N Security Council. Pakistan’s pro-Western elite knows that it cannot take a position against the U.S and Saudi Arabia because of economic and strategic reasons and must communicate to Iran that it should not target Gulf countries. For Iran, it is like a do-or-die situation. It cannot follow an opportunistic and cowardly approach in its war with the U.S and Saudi Arabia and agree to Pakistan’s request of not attacking American bases and installations in the Gulf.

Analysts argue that given Pakistan’s economic, political, and strategic vulnerabilities, it cannot take a position against the U.S and Saudi Arabia. Faced with insurgency in the restive province of Baluchistan and terrorism in KPK, the two provinces of Pakistan are already in turmoil. The other two provinces of Sindh and Punjab are also exposed to political fault lines in the shape of governance issues. Economic consequences of the Gulf War, which compelled Islamabad to increase the energy prices, will further augment inflation, unemployment, and severe price hikes.

With low per capita income, GDP, economic growth rate, and meager foreign exchange reserves, Pakistan is unable to take a courageous stance in the Gulf War. Furthermore, the elite of Pakistan are unwilling to leave their comfort zones and want people to render sacrifices. Crackdown on the PTI-led Opposition and curbs on the media also prevent the Pakistani state from siding with the resilient people of Iran. In that case, Israel, India, and the United States may seize an opportunity if Iran collapses and target Pakistan to dismantle its nuclear and missile program.

In a news item, “Caught between Iran and Saudi Arabia, can Pakistan stay neutral for long?” published in Al-Jazeera by Abid Hussain, March 7, 2026 it is argued that, “As Iranian drones and ballistic missiles continue to target Gulf states, the question being asked with increasing urgency in Pakistan is what Islamabad will do next if it finds itself pulled into the war.


Islamabad’s answer so far has been to work the phones furiously, engaging regional leaders, including Iran and Saudi Arabia. When US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, Pakistan condemned the attacks as “unwarranted.” Within hours, it also condemned Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Gulf States as “blatant violations of sovereignty.”

For how long Pakistan will take the cover of neutrality and diplomacy to keep itself out from the Gulf war needs to be seen. Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, while speaking in the Senate on March 3, and at a news conference later the same day, disclosed that he had personally reminded Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of Pakistan’s defense obligations to Saudi Arabia. “We have a defense pact with Saudi Arabia, and the whole world knows about it,” Dar said. “I told the Iranian leadership to take care of our pact with Saudi Arabia.”

Following a policy of appeasement and compromising on its sovereignty because of economic fragility will further augment the threat of a combined India-Israel attack on Pakistan’s nuclear assets and missile arsenal

Islamabad’s back channel and shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Riyadh has not yielded positive results because Iran has made it clear that it is only targeting Gulf states from where attacks on Iran are carried out from U.S bases.

One can figure out three reasons outlining how Pakistan will be the next target of Israel and the United States if Iran capitulates. First, since long for both the United States and Israel, along with India, Pakistan’s nuclear and missile arsenal is a source of utter concern. ‘Islamic bomb’ is repeatedly mentioned by the three powers with an objective to get rid of Pakistan’s nuclear and missile arsenal because they believe that Islamabad might use its nuclear assets in times of conflict with India and Israel.

The U.S-Israeli attack on Iran and the prolongation of the war tend to give an opportunity, particularly to the Jewish state target Pakistan. Israel believes that sooner or later it will have to target Pakistan’s nuclear and missile installations because both can be used if Iran is on the verge of collapse. How will Pakistani pro-western elites, having their privileges and interests at stake in the case of the Gulf war, react if they see the Jewish state, along with the U.S and India, on the verge of taking action against Islamabad? Second, so far, the Pakistani military and security establishment has not allowed jihadi forces to target American interests, but the attack on the U.S. Consulate in Karachi the other day reminds them that the losses of Iran will further galvanize the sentiments of people viewing America as responsible for destroying Iran. In that case, covering up the killing of nine protestors inside the compound of the U.S. Consulate in Karachi by American marines will not make things easier for Islamabad. That augments the vulnerability of Pakistan in the wake of the current situation emanating in the Gulf.

Finally, even if the Gulf war ends and Iran is able to survive U.S-Israeli attacks, supporters of Iran in Pakistan will get more confidence and strength in targeting American interests. The killing of thousands of people in Iran as a result of U.S-Israeli attacks and the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, along with key personalities, will continue to keep up anti-American sentiments and rhetoric in Pakistan. Furthermore, the India-Israel nexus is now obvious as a result of the clear support rendered to the Jewish state by the Narendra Modi regime. For Pakistan, it is a lesson that they must follow the Iranian model of defiance and resistance to protect their sovereignty.

Following a policy of appeasement and compromising on its sovereignty because of its economic fragility will further augment the threat of a combined India-Israel attack on Pakistan’s nuclear assets and missile arsenal. One can only hope that Pakistan will not be the next target in case Iran is severely weakened. Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence will provide a shield against any foreign attack.

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