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Kabul

Truce Time

Running with the hare and hunting with the hound, the Afghan Taliban want to maintain good relations with Pakistan and host the TTP terrorists at the same time.

By Amjad Ali | July 2022

After the recent friction between the Afghan government and Pakistan, and alleged airstrikes by Pakistan on the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) hideouts in Afghanistan, the Taliban government would compel the TTP to start negotiations with Pakistan. Facilitated by the Afghan Taliban, the negotiations have restarted, but the success of the negotiations is still a very complicated process as the terrorist outfit’s demands are unlikely to be met by Pakistan.

It is necessary to take a holistic view by taking into consideration the stakeholders and their interests. In this puzzling situation, there are three main stakeholders. Pakistan is bearing the brunt of the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan due to the porous border shared by Pakistan and Afghanistan. The ripple effect of Afghanistan is influencing Pakistan alike. Pakistan wants either the TTP’s submission to the state’s supreme law or wipe out the outfit. The TTP wants to fight the state of Pakistan and compel it to fulfil its patently illegal demands. The Afghan Taliban’s paradoxical interests are to maintain good relations with Pakistan, and host the TTP terrorists simultaneously.

These high stakes have complicated the process as none of the sides wants to compromise on its interests. Nonetheless, due to the recent action on the part of Pakistan inside Afghan territory, compelled the Kabul government to re-think its approach towards the TTP. Thus, they have assessed gravity of the situation and taken it seriously, and are facilitating the negotiations.

Towards this end, the terrorist group has announced the ceasefire because of the ongoing negotiations. The Pakistan delegation visited Kabul. Nevertheless, there was a deadlock because of the unacceptable demands of the TTP that include release of their incarcerated elements, reversal of ex-FATA merger, imposition of Shariah laws and reparations for the losses suffered by its cadres during the war, etc.


These demands are not just unethical and illogical, but also unacceptable to Pakistan. Even an iota of consideration of these conditions is tantamount to the state succumbing the pressure of the terrorists. Erstwhile FATA’s merger with KPK was a demand of the residents of that region, and was aimed at mainstreaming of the area so that the region may be ushered into an era of economic and social progress. This unfortunate region has suffered heavily since the inception of Pakistan, therefore its merger was an opportunity to ensure equal rights to the residents as enjoyed by other provinces. Shockingly, the demand to reverse this democratic and constitutional process seems to be self-delusion. Such idiosyncratic prerequisites are a big blow to further progress.

There is still a hope that further headway is possible for a number of reasons. The ongoing negotiation process is different than the previous ones. This time it is facilitated by the Kabul regime and they are taking it very seriously due to the fact that derailment of the process can complicate Kabul-Islamabad relations that they cannot afford as no country recognises their legitimacy and Pakistan is the only country that supported them by vowing international humanitarian assistance as well as emphasising the international community that further isolation of the regime will drag the country into perpetual violence that is more dangerous to the global community. In addition, they also know that during their most challenging circumstances, Pakistan helped and facilitated the Doha process that paved the way for them to take the reins of power in Kabul.

The TTP wants to exploit Pakistan’s economic vulnerabilities by incessant attacks assuming that Pakistan cannot afford fighting the terrorists and will succumb to their blackmailing. However, the fact is that the state is trying to mitigate further damage, but they can neither challenge nor stand against the will and capability of the state.

Against this backdrop, Pakistan needs to carefully handle the situation and move the situation in its favour. For this purpose, it should adopt a Machiavellian approach and offer least possible concessions to the terrorists and formulate strategies to trap and wipe out the TTP terrorists in the long run. For instance, it should categorically stress on the Kabul government that Pakistan is serious about furthering the process. However, the TTP must show flexibility. These demands are unacceptable and will be considered as challenging the writ of the state and the future outcome will also have implications for bilateral relations. Hence, the Taliban government must either force the TTP to come to terms with Pakistan, or else help and facilitate joint intelligence-based operations (IBOs) inside Afghanistan against the anti-Pakistan elements in case of failure of negotiations as Pakistan will have dissipated all patience.

The Afghan Taliban will definitely take these two options quite seriously, keeping in view the fact that Pakistan has done everything it could do. As a result, they will force the TTP to either show flexibility or else they will have to leave their country as they cannot afford a hostile Pakistan. Also, further volatility will favour none of the stakeholders.

At the same time, it is an open secret that the Afghan Taliban and the TTP have long-established relations. The Kabul-based Taliban consider the anti-Pakistan terror outfit as their jihad partners against the US invasion. The former has a soft corner for the latter and good relations with Pakistan. Therefore, the Afghan Taliban also want a middle path as it suits their interests.

The path ahead is not easy for Pakistan, it requires a more cautious approach that entails some concessions, the threat of the use of force, and the outcome’s impact on Pak-Afghan relations. It will certainly have some tangible results!

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