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Front-running Yogi

UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is seen as the BJP’s future. He is the only BJP leader who seems like he can act on his own. He is regarded as the party’s number one polariser.

By Shahrukh Mehboob | November 2021


If Narendra Modi has any competition for national headlines, it comes from his party’s chief minister in Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Adityanath. First, it was Prime Minister Narendra Modi who said the chief minister’s handling of the Covid-19 crisis was “unparalleled”. Days later, party president JP Nadda commended Adityanath for turning Uttar Pradesh into one of India’s “leading states”. Of late, it was the turn of Amit Shah: the Union home minister declared Uttar Pradesh under Adityanath was the “top” state in the country on the law and order front.

Against this backdrop, the unequivocal endorsement of Adityanath in the last couple of weeks by all those who matter in the BJP is somewhat intriguing. Central leaders, for their part, say the party feels no need to change the status quo. “The party is doing extremely well under the leadership of Yogi Ji,” said Y Satya Kumar, the BJP’s co-in charge for Uttar Pradesh, referring to Adityanath as he is popularly known. “He has a proven track record.” But few political observers are willing to buy the claim that it is Yogi’s governance record that has made the BJP lean on him again.

The decision to hoist Adityanath, they say, is primarily the BJP falling back upon the muscular brand of Hindutva politics to save the day as the country’s economy lies in shambles. “The economy is bad, there is no employment, farmers are upset, and Covid has destroyed the rural economy,” said Satendra Kumar, who teaches at Allahabad University’s GB Pant Social Science Institute, listing out the grievances frequently aired in rural Uttar Pradesh. “So what do you do? You say you are building temples, protecting Hindus from Muslims,” he said, attempting to explain why the BJP was banking on Adityanath. “The more Hindutva you project, the better for you.” In an early sign of this strategy, Kumar pointed out, the Uttar Pradesh government in July announced plans to put in place population control measures, drawing on an enduring – and mythical – Hindutva trope of a demographic threat posed by higher Muslim fertility rates.


“Things like that tantalize and stimulate Hindu voters because it is seen as an anti-Muslim move,” he said. “These elections are going to be a lot about that and so projecting a Hindu hardliner helps sends a clear message that helps bring together upper-caste Hindu votes – a formidable number in UP. ”

While he was never the front-runner for UP’s chief ministership, Yogi’s elevation was greeted with a sense of euphoria in the party. Part of the euphoria also came from the belief that with the defeat of the caste-identity-based parties, the state would now have a leader free of family encumbrances to rescue it from decades of decline. The state’s law enforcement is as much “better” as you find in your headlines. Similarly, he was expected to turn the state’s economy around. It would seem that in the second half of Akhilesh Yadav’s term, UP had broken out of its stagnation. Its GSDP grew at 8.85 percent in 2015-16 and 10.87 percent in 2016-17. Yogi took over in early March 2017, just ahead of the new financial year. The growth rate under him over the next three years kept declining — 7.24 percent in 2017-18, 5.33 in 2018-19, and 4.38 percent by 2018-19. If anything, the state’s growth halved under his three years from what he had inherited. This is a pandemic year, so let’s not talk about. Despite all this, Yogi is seen as the BJP’s future. He is the only BJP leader who seems like he can act on his own. He is the party’s number one polariser. If Modi and Shah dreamt of a Congress-mukt Bharat, he’s working towards his idea of Muslim-mukt Uttar Pradesh, in the sense of completely marginalizing them — five crore Indians.

His personality, power, and politics are sui generis. He hasn’t done much good for his state, but Modi and Shah will now need him if they want to win UP again in 2022 and India in 2024. This signals a Yogi Adityanath-sized change in BJP politics, even under Modi. The BJP high command makes a categorical announcement on the decisions taken at their meetings regarding the political situation in UP. All contentious issues, right now in the public domain, will remain in the realm of uncertainty.

However, it can be safely concluded that a range of meetings in recent weeks, in Delhi and Lucknow, has largely revolved around the state assembly polls (to be held early next year) and remedial steps needed to iron out friction in the party, correct caste equations through cabinet expansion and poll alliances, defuse the rising anger against Adityanath in the party’s rank and file, and steps to improve the government’s image after what is widely perceived to be the mismanagement of the second wave. Significantly, this is not the first time that a section of party cadres and lawmakers have rebelled against the CM’s style of functioning, sharing their angst with the central leadership. But addressing these voices has become more urgent, as the party high command knows a friction-ridden party can’t swim through choppy electoral waters, especially after a clear dent in the state government’s image.

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