The Maldives, an archipelago of small islands in the Indian Ocean, holds significant strategic importance due to its location along international trade routes connecting Asia with Europe. This key position has allowed it to attract the attention of global powers. Historically, India, the largest country in South Asia, has extended aid to it, maintaining a strong influence over its foreign policy. However, the recent election of Mohamed Muizzu as president marks a paradigm shift, with China’s role becoming more prominent. Muizzu’s rise signals a potential diplomatic pivot in the Maldives’ foreign policy.
Muizzu defeated Mohamed Solih with a campaign focused on reducing India’s presence, claiming that Indian troops compromised Maldivian sovereignty. After his election, he followed through on his promise by sending Indian troops home. Departing from tradition, Muizzu’s first presidential visit was to Turkey, bypassing India. He later visited China, strengthening ties with India’s geopolitical rival.
These moves have not gone unnoticed by India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, aware of the shifting dynamics, visited Lakshadweep, an Indian-controlled island similar to the Maldives, possibly to highlight alternatives for tourism.
Since Muizzu’s victory, the Maldives has moved much closer to China. The Chinese administration has seized this opportunity, pledging assistance to the country and signing various agreements. They plan to invest in housing projects and have announced a $200 million investment in building a bridge in the Maldives.
While the Maldives reaps the benefits of cosying up to China, Mohamed Muizzu is not naive enough to overlook India’s key role in supporting the Maldivian economy. India, as noted by Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar, has bailed out the nation on numerous occasions. Additionally, Indian tourists make up a significant portion of international visitors to the Maldives. When Indian celebrities launched a social media campaign to boycott the Maldives after a Maldivian minister mocked Indian PM Narendra Modi, the Maldivian tourism body sought an apology from Modi. A few months later, Maldivian Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer invited Indian tourists to visit the country.
In a surprising turn of events, Mohamed Muizzu attended Narendra Modi’s oath-taking ceremony on June 9 when Modi was set to become Prime Minister of India for the third time. One might think these moves suggest that the practicalities of the Maldivian economy have compelled Muizzu to take a conciliatory approach towards India, resetting the previously cold relations. However, this was not the case. While Muizzu was in India meeting Modi and other BJP leaders, his party was launching a probe into agreements signed by the previous Maldivian government with India.
One of Muizzu’s party’s MPA, Ahmad Azaan, tweeted on June 9, “Today, the National Security Services Committee of the parliament has decided to conduct a parliamentary inquiry to investigate actions undertaken by President @ibusolih ‘s administration that undermined the sovereignty and independence of the Maldives.”
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