Writing on the Wall

It was like a bombshell when back-to-back steps were taken by a segment of the international community against the Pakistani establishment, criticizing alleged rigging in the February 8 elections and the arbitrary arrest of the PTI Chairman Imran Khan. With an overwhelming majority of 368 votes, the U.S. House of Representatives (HOR) passed bi-partisan resolution number 901 on June 25, which called for a probe into the alleged irregularities of the February 8 general elections and called upon Islamabad to uphold democracy and human rights and denounced harassment, intimidated, violence, arbitrary detention, and internet access restrictions.

On July 1, the Geneva-based UN Working Group on Human Rights called for an end to the arbitrary detention of Imran Khan and termed it as a violation of international law. The working group also condemned what it alleged was widespread fraud and cheating in the February 8 elections. While viewing these two developments, it should be clear what is written on the wall, and gradually, pressure is being exerted on the military establishment, along with its supported regime, against how the February 8 elections were manipulated, thus depriving Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf of its due mandate. The detention of Imran Khan in around 200 cases filed against him and the lack of justice in court trials also reflect how unfettered those elements who wield power today in Pakistan are.

While both the resolution and act of the U.S. House of Representatives and the UN Working Group on Human Rights are non-binding, it does speak of growing international pressure on the Pakistan government about the lack of legitimacy of the February 8 elections and repressive measures against the PTI workers, leaders, and its chairman. Unlike the bipartisan resolution number 901 passed by the U.S. HOR with an overwhelming majority, the resolution passed by Pakistan’s National Assembly on June 26 lacked consensus and was passed with a simple majority. The role of overseas Pakistanis in the U.S. for lobbying against the alleged rigging of the February general elections and state-sponsored repression against the PTI will not end with the passage of Resolution 901. It is expected that another resolution in HOR may be tabled, which will be binding and, in case of non-compliance by Islamabad, may result in sanctions.

If the U.S. President Joe Biden administration is ostensibly supportive of the current military-backed regime of Pakistan, why did the HOR pass a bipartisan resolution? What will be the implications if Donald Trump defeats his Republican rival in the November 2024 presidential elections? The fragility of Joe Biden as a presidential nominee of the Democratic Party is apparent, which will benefit the Republican Party’s presidential candidate, Donald Trump. It is perceived that Trump has a soft corner for Imran Khan, and if he reaches the White House, there may be a paradigm shift in the U.S. policy on Pakistan. When the economic predicament of Pakistan is augmenting with each passing day in terms of enormous debt and budgetary deficit, its dependence on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the 24th bailout package will further compromise its sovereignty.

Things that are being written on the wall reflecting Pakistan’s economic fragility, unending political crisis, bad governance, absence of rule of law, endless corruption, and nepotism cannot be overlooked. It is not only the IMF that has prevailed over the current regime to enhance prices of electricity, gas, and petroleum products and overburden the salaried class with excessive taxes, but the lavish expenditures of ruling elites who are controlling the instruments of power also tend to put a question mark over the viability of Pakistan’s economy. Consequently, since the departure of Imran Khan’s regime through a dubious vote of no-confidence, the rate of the U.S dollar versus the Pakistani rupee has risen from 160 to 280; the economic growth rate, which was 6% in March 2022, has declined to 2%; exports are stagnant, and out of frustration and insecurity, around 2 million educated Pakistanis have left the country for better prospects.