India and Pakistan, the two neighboring countries with shared histories and deep-seated rivalries, have experienced fluctuating relations since their independence from British rule in 1947. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarks on his third term in office, questions arise about whether he will make significant strides in improving Indo-Pakistani relations or if the status quo of diplomatic deadlock will persist. To understand the complexities of this issue, it is essential to delve into the historical context of the bilateral relationship, examine Modi’s approach to Pakistan in his previous terms, and consider the current geopolitical landscape.
Partition and Early Tensions
The partition of British India in 1947 created two separate states: India and Pakistan. This event, marked by mass migrations and communal violence, sowed the seeds of distrust and hostility. The dispute over the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir became a flashpoint, leading to the first Indo-Pakistani war in 1947-48. The conflict ended with the establishment of the Line of Control (LoC), dividing Kashmir between the two countries but leaving the territorial issue unresolved.
Wars and Peace Attempts
The second Indo-Pakistani war in 1965 and the third in 1971, which resulted in the creation of Bangladesh, further entrenched hostilities. Despite these conflicts, there have been numerous attempts at peace. The Simla Agreement in 1972, the Lahore Declaration in 1999, and the Agra Summit in 2001 are notable efforts where both nations sought to resolve their differences through dialogue. However, these initiatives often faltered due to political, military, and terrorist-related disruptions.
The Nuclear Dimension
In 1998, both countries conducted nuclear tests, introducing a new dimension to their rivalry. The prospect of nuclear conflict added urgency to the need for diplomatic engagement. Yet, incidents like the Kargil War in 1999 and the Mumbai terror attacks in 2008 showcased how fragile peace efforts could be, repeatedly pushing the relationship back into hostility.
Narendra Modi’s Approach to Pakistan
First Term (2014-2019)
Modi’s first term began with a surprising gesture of goodwill. He invited the then-Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to his swearing-in ceremony in 2014, signaling a potential thaw in relations. This was followed by Modi’s impromptu visit to Lahore in December 2015, which was hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough.
However, the optimism was short-lived. The Pathankot airbase attack in January 2016 and the Uri attack in September 2016, both attributed to Pakistan-based militants, led to a sharp deterioration in relations. In response, India claimed to conduct surgical strikes across the LoC, marking a significant shift in its military and diplomatic stance. Modi’s government adopted a more hardline approach, emphasizing counter-terrorism and national security.
Second Term (2019-2024)
Modi’s re-election in 2019 saw the continuation of a tough stance on Pakistan. The Pulwama attack in February 2019, which killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel, resulted in a planned air space violation by the Indian Air Force (IAF) in which Indian aircraft ended up releasing a payload that fell near Balakot. In August 2019, India revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, a move that Pakistan vehemently opposed and sought to internationalize. Throughout his second term, Modi’s government focused on isolating Pakistan diplomatically, criticizing its alleged support for terrorism, and strengthening India’s ties with other global powers. Despite occasional back-channel communications, formal dialogues remained stalled.
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