Food War

Region

Russia and Ukraine comprise approximately 30% of global wheat exports, which pass through the Black Sea. These waters are being shared by Romania, Georgia, Bulgaria, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine. Due to the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine, the export routes are severely affected by blockages. It is believed that a serious world food crisis will occur as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war.

A large portion of the world’s fertilizers is blocked in Russia and Belarus due to the war. Belarus is an independent country, bordered on the northwest by Latvia and Lithuania, on the north and east by Russia, on the south by Ukraine and on the west by Poland. Russia is at the top list of fertilizer exporters. Ukraine holds 5th position, being the largest wheat exporter and third largest corn exporter worldwide. Ukraine exports wheat mostly to the developing and lower-middle income countries of the Middle East, North Africa and South, and Southeast Asia. A huge amount of corn, wheat and barley is caught up between Ukraine and Russia. The war is expected to worsen the economic and food crisis around the world.

The ideological and political differences between the United States and the Soviet Union started to emerge in the 20th century. During the Cold War, Ukraine was a vital part of the Soviet Union and was considered its cornerstone. This was due to its agricultural production, defence industries and nuclear arsenal. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Ukraine emerged as an independent sovereign state. Tensions started in 2014 between Russia and Ukraine when a Kremlin-friendly Ukrainian leader was forced to be driven out from office. Before 2014, Ukraine had friendly and deep cultural and social ties with Russia. During that period, it was seen that the Russian government by force occupied the Crimean Peninsula through a separatist insurgency that caused the loss of about 14000 lives. In 2021, relations between the two countries appeared to further worsen and on February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine which approached the European Union and received positive support for sanctions on Russia.

The Russia-Ukraine war had a deep impression on Afghanistan as some 26% food was being imported in Afghanistan from Ukraine. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia would cause a hike in the prices of food and fuel items in Afghanistan, as the country is going through an economic and humanitarian crisis already. The country’s economy is already in a shambles. According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 2021, Afghanistan’s GDP would be contracted by 20% in the coming years.

Afghanistan’s economy was always based on 80% foreign aid. Imposition of financial sanctions after the withdrawal of U.S. forces further increased the economic and humanitarian tensions. According to the International Rescue Committee’s (2022) reports, Afghanistan requires $1-2 million per week to run the system. If the economy is not supported financially, then how can imports be afforded? Since, the beginning of 2022, WFP has assisted almost 12 million Afghans, but still, 38 million citizens have no access to sufficient food. Afghans can trade through the Central Bank, but the imposition of sanctions and little flow of amounts through the International Bank is not enough to cater to the collapsing economy and save people from hunger. According to UN data 2022, if the situation continues, almost 3.2 million children will go under-nourished.

It is essential to import wheat as a main staple food of Afghanistan and Kazakhstan is the major supplier. The WFP executive director David Beasley warned in a TV interview that the invasion of Russia severely affected grain exports, risking the destabilizing of nations worldwide. The conflict would cause a severe food crisis over time.

Fertilizer production and disruptions in harvesting caused food prices to go higher worldwide. Since February 24, 2022, data shows that wheat prices have gone up by 21%, barley has increased by 33%, and fertilizers by 40%. Food crisis is believed to be at a tipping point around the world. At the same time, European Union urges the international community to ensure the steady flow of food and energy.

Kabul

Food War

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