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Dhaka

Hope vs. History

Bangladesh faces a defining choice, as the February 2026 election and referendum, packaged under a reformist banner, offer a pathway to renewal

By Atif Shamim Syed | February 2026


Bangladesh faces a crucial turning point with both a national election and a constitutional referendum set for February 12, 2026. This will not be a simple electoral event, but a test of the nation’s political soul, the resilience of its institutions, and its permanent place within an increasingly volatile region. The vote will determine whether the country can channel the revolutionary energy of the student-led uprising into a stable, democratic renewal or if it will succumb to the lingering phantoms of authoritarianism and political fragmentation.

The stakes could never be higher, extending far beyond its borders. Bangladesh’s stability is a linchpin for South Asian security. But deep historical tensions have trapped the nation between hope for renewal and fear of a democratic betrayal.

To understand the importance of the present moment, we must look back at the events of recent years. Sheikh Hasina’s fall in August 2024 was heralded as a “second liberation” of Bangladesh. Her rule was a case study in contradictions: Hasina oversaw an economic miracle, transforming Bangladesh into a garment export powerhouse. Per capita income doubled, and millions were lifted out of poverty. Hasina invested in infrastructure and initiated social welfare programs. But this progress was built upon an increasingly authoritarian foundation. Her entire tenure remained stained with allegations of election-rigging, brutal suppression of political opponents, and incarceration of hundreds of journalists.

The student-led uprising that toppled Hasina’s regime was a cry for accountability. Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus stepped into the vacuum created by her sudden departure and assumed leadership of the interim government tasked with steering the country towards a free and fair election. Yunus was initially regarded as a moral beacon, but his government revealed its own contradictions soon after. People began wondering if they had swapped one form of authoritarianism with another.

Bangladeshis fear that the coming election will also be a sham. It will look fair, but actually cement unfair and sectarian rule. Analysts give specific reasons for this fear based on the current government’s actions.

First is the exclusionary political landscape. The interim government has banned Hasina’s Awami League from participating in the February polls. This decision alienates millions of voters and eliminates Bangladesh’s historically dominant political force from the election arena. It also mirrors the very election engineering that Hasina was accused of perpetrating. The ban triggered warnings of mass street protests from Hasina’s son, Sajeeb Wazed, setting the stage for clashes between Awami Leaguers and security forces.

Second is the misuse of state power. Under operations like “Operation Devil Hunt,” Yunus’s administration has detained thousands of individuals in sweeping crackdowns. Mounting pressure on popular media outlets indicates a concerning continuity of suppression.


Moreover, the Yunus government has legally restored the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami and released its leaders from prison. Jamaat’s Secretary General issued thinly veiled threats of a “serious national crisis” if elections are not conducted to its liking. By empowering Jamaat, Yunus seems to be trading short-term political gains for long-term social cohesion.

With the Awami League banned, the electoral playground is dominated by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the resurgent Jamaat-e-Islami. This sets the stage for intense and potentially violent competition. Historically united only by their opposition to Hasina, these parties are now locked in a bitter struggle for dominance in the new political order. Internal power struggles within both the BNP and Jamaat have intensified as party leaders compete for control of key areas.

The electoral playground is dominated by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the resurgent Jamaat-e-Islami

Large-scale protests and street violence are highly probable. The political vacuum created by the Awami League’s absence is not a neutral space; it is a battleground. The interim government’s pledge to deploy the army may prove insufficient to quell unrest if core political grievances remain unaddressed. The bloodshed that has marred Bangladeshi elections since the country’s creation looms as a possible precedent.

Amidst this clash of the entrenched parties, the voice of the movement that sparked this transition risks being drowned out. The National Citizen Party (NCP), born from the student protests of 2024, represented a vision for a genuine break. A new constitution, an end to dynastic politics, robust judicial independence, and the protection of minority rights. Their call for a “Second Republic” resonated with the ideals of the uprising. But the NCP finds itself in a political trap. Their polling numbers remain low compared to the machinery of the BNP and Jamaat. The NCP has already refused to participate in an election administered by what it calls an illegitimate and partial election commission. This will render them politically irrelevant at this crucial juncture, allowing the old parties to reassert themselves without a coherent, reformist alternative.

The implications of Bangladesh’s instability stretch across South Asia. It shares a long, porous border with India. Delhi considered Sheikh Hasina a dependable ally. Her turbulent exit and the resulting political instability have shaken this key relationship. Furthermore, any major internal crisis would complicate the already dire Rohingya refugee situation along the border with Myanmar. The coming election has drawn international attention since instability in Bangladesh threatens trade and security throughout the region.

Bangladesh faces a defining choice. The election and referendum, packaged under a reformist banner, offer a pathway to renewal. Yet, the process is poisoned by political exclusion, resurgence of sectarian politics, and the threat of widespread violence. The uprising’s core objective of establishing an accountable, transparent, and truly democratic government is now at risk.

The world will be watching to see if Bangladesh can seize this moment for a true turning point. The essential ingredients for legitimacy are clear but elusive: an inclusive process that allows all major parties, including the Awami League, to compete; an impartial Election Commission; and a firm commitment to protecting minority rights from political violence. Without these, the elections will not mark the rebirth of democracy. The people of Bangladesh will find out that after immense sacrifice, they have exchanged one form of repression for another. The test is not merely of electoral logistics, but of the nation’s collective political resilience and its unwavering commitment to the democratic ideals upon which it was founded.
The coming months will determine whether hope or history will have the final say.

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