On September 8, a group of Gen-Z youngsters born between 1997 and 2012 announced a peaceful protest against the existing bad governance, state-sponsored corruption, and nepotism. The protest was further triggered by the government’s decision to ban mainstream social media platforms, stating that they had failed to comply with the government’s directives to register with the Ministry of Communication and Information Technology. The video footage of the protest shows that the genuine protesters were peaceful and sober at the outset. However, the external intruders seem to have instigated the Gen-Z protesters to march towards the scarcely barricaded federal parliament building. Once the protesters stormed into the parliament premises, the security forces fired randomly at the protesters.
Although the home minister resigned after the first day’s aftermath, the prime minister stayed stubborn. His statement arrogantly defended the security forces’ heinous action. That was one of the catalysts that agitated the protesters who went berserk on the second day. However, the unverified speculations by national and international media, as well as visual clips of the protest, clearly reveal a coordinated infiltration of agitators who assaulted the political leaders, burned down the main administrative centers, private and public properties, and selected business establishments.
The historic turn of events over the two days enthroned former chief justice Sushila Karki as the first lady executive head of the country. The House of Representatives (HoR) was dissolved, and prominent figures from various walks of life joined Karki’s interim government. The mainstream political parties briefly relapsed, but after the heat of the protest had settled, they emerged and started their usual business.
Notably, after a ten-day refuge at an army camp, the deposed prime minister KP Sharma Oli has reverted to his usual demeanor — marked by obstinacy, self-absorption, and an unwillingness to acknowledge his blunders. He has openly challenged the legality of the government and has already denounced the forthcoming report of the investigation committee formed by the government to scrutinize the atrocities during the two-day protest. This is a clear sign of impending political confrontation as the main political parties, including Oli’s Nepal Communist Party (UML), maintain strong and loyal support bases. Moreover, the main leadership of the political parties might be tainted; political parties are the backbone of democracy in a parliamentary system like Nepal. Hence, their existence cannot be neglected.
The primary agenda of the Gen-Z movement was not to form an electoral government but to initiate an unbiased investigation into state-sponsored corruption and the atrocities committed by political parties and their leadership. Contrastingly, Prime Minister Sushila Karki has clearly conveyed that the government’s primary responsibility is to conduct the federal election on March 5 and nothing more. Yet, with tensions rising and potential confrontations with political parties ahead, it now appears unlikely that the election will take place on the scheduled date. Moreover, the government is said to have formed under the existing constitution, which strictly forbids a former chief justice from taking over the premiership’s responsibilities.
To implement the agenda of the Gen-Z movement, the government should have temporarily suspended the existing constitution and issued an interim governance directive. This was not the case, and now, every government action will technically be unconstitutional. It is an established democratic norm that the constitutional provisions should not be violated, whatever the justification. In fact, a mass movement might amend the rules in its favor, but it cannot breach the Constitution. Hence, the constitutional adversity will hinder the pace of the government at every step.
With recent political developments, three possibilities are imminent:
First, despite the constitutional illegality of the government, the political parties will ultimately accept its existence and participate in the March 5 elections. With the existing electoral provision, no party will be able to secure a majority, and a coalition government of the main political parties will be formed – back to square one.
Secondly, the legality of the government has already been challenged in court through multiple writ petitions. If the court acts swiftly, the dissolved HoR will be restored, and one of the members of the reinstated HoR will be elected prime minister. The so-called Gen-Z supporters will denounce this action, leading to a prolonged political confrontation.
Thirdly, if the court quashes the impending writ petitions or delays the jurisdiction, the government will not be able to conduct the election on the scheduled date due to security concerns and weather adversities in hilly districts. This will again trigger political instability and political confrontations. Although unlikely, this might prompt the army or the deposed monarch to intervene and assume control of the country amid severe civil unrest. However, the Nepal Army’s track record and the former monarch’s reputation do not support this probability.
Whatever the outcomes of these probabilities, unfortunately, Nepal is set to embark on a new and prolonged innings of instability, impunity, and political chaos. Alas, the dark days are not yet over.
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