Level Playing Field?

As Bangladesh stands on the precipice of a potentially defining election, the specter of boycotts and repression hangs heavy in the air. The major opposition party, Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP’s) decision to boycott elections, coupled with the recent crackdowns, has thrown the country into a state of political turmoil, raising serious concerns about the future of democracy and stability. The consequences of a controversial election could be far-reaching, not only for the domestic political landscape but also for Dhaka’s economic prospects and international standing.

Traditionally, neutral caretaker governments oversaw general elections every five years. However, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, leading the Awami League since 2009, eliminated this requirement in 2011 through the 15th Amendment, which excluded ‘Chapter IIA Non-Party Care-Taker Government’ from the Constitution. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Khaleda Zia, the former prime minister from 1991 to 1996 and 2001 to 2006, serves as the primary opposition, expressing skepticism about the government’s capacity to conduct impartial elections and fearing potential manipulation of ballot outcomes. The BNP had previously boycotted the 2014 elections due to similar concerns, and the government faced serious allegations of election rigging in 2018.

What is behind this political chaos? Following the dispersal of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) grand rally by law enforcement agencies on October 28, the country has plunged into escalating violence. However, the condition began to worsen after the election commission declared January 7, 2024, as the poll date on November 15. The opposition has consistently been demanding a neutral caretaker setup for overseeing the elections and a level playing field. Moreover, they have also been calling for the resignation of Shaikh Hasina, the incumbent Prime Minister. For that purpose, the opposition has resorted to nationwide protests, whose violence has left over a dozen dead and hundreds injured, including journalists. Though the ruling government blames the opposition for the violence and subsequent losses, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has reported that the ruling party sponsored violent assaults on the protesters.

The leading opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has announced a boycott of the election, citing extensive irregularities in voter lists and an absence of a fair playing field. This decision has disrupted the electoral landscape, raising worries about the credibility and inclusiveness of the impending results.

Badiul Alam Majumdar, the founder of Citizens for Good Governance, a pro-democracy group based in Dhaka, asserted to VOA that it is now “undeniable” that Bangladesh is headed for a one-sided, “engineered” parliamentary election on January 7. He pointed to the government’s actions, such as appointing a partisan election commission, politicizing bureaucracy, and law enforcement agencies, and exerting control over other institutions, as evidence of this engineered process.

Furthermore, despite the Awami League Party, led by Sheikh Hasina, asserting its commitment to competitive and transparent polls, the BNP, as the biggest opposition party, has decided against taking part in the electoral process. In this tense political climate and amid opposition concerns, the forthcoming elections are anticipated to yield contentious outcomes.

The January 7th election in Bangladesh holds immense significance. Its success or failure will not only impact domestic politics but will also influence the nation’s international standing and economic trajectory. The outcome remains uncertain, and Bangladesh’s key international partners, such as the United States and the European Union, express deep concerns over the deteriorating political situation.
Many experts, analysts, and political pundits assert that a charged political environment and contested electoral outcomes could trigger diplomatic and economic repercussions, potentially leading Western nations to rethink their trade agreements and aid programs.

This could isolate Bangladesh and impede access to crucial resources and foreign investment, already evident in the decline of foreign direct investment and diminished business confidence. The ongoing political turmoil has begun affecting Bangladesh’s economic prospects, with the potential for job losses and capital flight. A flawed election could exacerbate existing challenges, plunging the nation into poverty and instability. The ruling government, however, is confident of sailing through the political turmoil and ensuring a level playing field for all and sundry.

In this uncertain environment, dialogue and compromise are crucial for all stakeholders in Bangladesh. The ruling Awami League must address opposition concerns and ensure a fair electoral process, while the BNP should express its dissent peacefully and within legal bounds. International partners can contribute by urging meaningful dialogue, upholding democratic principles, and assisting in ensuring the integrity of the electoral process.

Bangladesh stands at a crossroads, and the coming weeks will determine whether it can navigate political turbulence and emerge stronger or succumb to division and discord.