Global South vs. the West

Today’s fractured and fragmented global geopolitical order hardly needs any emphasis or elaborate analysis. Over the past 16 months, the world has witnessed a debilitating incursion in Eastern Europe, an intensifying trade war and muscle-flexing by two of the world’s heavyweight superpowers; and countries dabbling with abstract neutrality. As the war grinds on in Ukraine; the US-China relations continue to simmer; and countries across continents keep weaving words to assuage economic and strategic alliances, global summits would remain all but a mere emblem of posture. Just words and assurances - supposed intentions and intricate timelines - without any concrete significance.

The BRICS Summit 2023 was no different.

BRICS - an acronym of the club of developing countries comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa - was formed as an informal group of nations in 2009, seemingly to counter the Western-led global order. The bloc was unsurprisingly envisioned and founded by Russia, frustrated by the realpolitik of multilateral institutions dominated by the United States and its mostly Western allies. Now, 15 years ahead, BRICS assembled again in August for its 15th Head of State and Government Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa.

While the symbolic import of the plenary is not lost on any cogent mind, regardless of its political disposition, a prospect ought to be observed closely: The much-touted expansion of the bloc.

Interestingly, South Africa, the chair of this year’s BRICS summit, was the first (and only) beneficiary of the bloc expansion in 2010. As the group now convenes to debate global and intra-bloc dynamics matters, the decision holds considerably more weight.

BRICS represents about 40% of the total world’s population and accounts for roughly one-third of the global GDP. Any expansion can both enhance its geopolitical reach and further its economic ambitions, arguably impacting the Western decorum in vogue. However, it’s not just about symbolic expansion. It is also pertinent with respect to the interested parties.

According to officials from South Africa, over 40 countries have intimated interest in joining the bloc. Of those, nearly 25-odd countries have formally joined its ranks. While BRICS has not officially disclosed these potential members, prospective candidates include Iran, Indonesia, Cuba, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Venezuela, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The apparent list clearly exhibits the diversity of nations attracted to the bloc. And the imprint of the inclusion of powerhouses like Saudi Arabia and the UAE would be undoubtedly monumental.

Nonetheless, some implicit factors are at play that may not only threaten expansion plans but even destabilize the core bloc itself.

It is no secret that the longstanding members of BRICS are already divided on pivotal matters - most glaring is the overt opposition to the United States. The ‘Global South vs. the West’ has been a recurrent theme associated with the bloc time and again. The champions of this rhetoric are apparent. China and Russia have not been discreet about their shared hatred for the reigning world superpower. In fact, enmity to the United States is one of the mainstay elements binding the erstwhile rivals of the Cold War, especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, the same cannot be said about the remaining three members.

India - the world’s largest democracy - has impressively walked a fine line of diplomacy since last year. While it has continued energy trade with Russia, vociferously defending its economic prerogative, it has somehow managed a cordial relationship with the West. India Prime Minister Narendra Modi was given an emphatic red-carpet welcome in Washington just a few months back; a similar fanfare was repeated in France just a month ahead. Brazil and South Africa, while maintaining close ties with Russia and China, have also remained ostensibly wary of aligning with either for fear of alienating Western supporters.
The most befitting example is ironically apparent in the lead-up to this very summit.

South Africa, buckling under Western pressure, asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the summit virtually since it would have been bound to honor the arrest warrant issued by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) accusing Putin of war crimes in Ukraine.

Even the aspiring members are not completely on-board on the counter-West bandwagon. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are presumably not opposing the US leadership but seeking a more functional role in global bodies. Similarly, sanctions-ridden nations like Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela - while admittedly staunch US adversaries are predominantly interested in dodging financial isolation and garnering some breathing space for their weakened economies.

It does not mean that BRICS has no substance at all. But it increasingly feels like a jumble of diverse intentions rather than a purposeful expansion to strengthen the alliance itself. One must acknowledge that the collective Global South is deprived of its rights and representation in the current world order, desperately seeking a counterweight to the G7. Yet, alas, BRICS is the best available option. All in all, as China battles with internal economic fissures and Russia continues to focus on Ukraine (and its resources), BRICS is unlikely to be any better any time soon.