The Second Coming

The fall of Kabul to the Taliban on 15th August 2021 was long overdue and reminded many of the ‘Saigon moment’ of the US’s unceremonious exit from Vietnam on 30th April 1975. However, as expected, the Taliban made it a peaceful takeover, avoiding bloodshed, giving safe exit to all people fleeing Afghanistan including the puppet Afghan president Ashraf Ghani and his team of lustful advisors, Afghan spies, families and supporters of invaders, foreign diplomats including invaders’ foreign missions, reminding of the amnesty given by the Holy Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) at the time of the conquest of Makkah (in December 629 AD, 10–20 Ramadan, 8 AH).

What a historic moment that registered victory of the so-called ragtag Taliban fighters who remained steadfast in the face of a self-styled super power along with more than 30 allied countries who had invaded Afghanistan for fabricated reasons and with multiple undeclared objectives. They kept committing strategic blunders for 20 long years with the arrogance of an imperial power intoxicated by high-tech weapons and equipment. This is of course the second great victory for the Taliban, who defeated the erstwhile Soviet Union after fighting them for more than 9 years (December 24, 1979 – February 15, 1989). But this time around, the Taliban are showing more political maturity, magnanimity, better internal organisation and, above all, a much enhanced stature and acceptability by regional and extra-regional states like China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Qatar, CARs (Central Asian Republics) and others; all are committed to bring peace and stability in Afghanistan by ensuring that the spoilers of tranquility (like India) do not succeed in initiating a civil war in Afghanistan.

In the last two years, based on my first hand experience, I have written extensively about Afghanistan and US policies with strategic recommendations to all concerned. Thankfully, the Government of Pakistan paid heed to it, whereas the US and its allies and the Afghan puppet government kept getting misled by their self created academic advisers, tunnel vision think tanks and foolhardy intelligence wizards as pointed out in “US Wars in Afghanistan and Vietnam”, “Looming Scenario for Afghanistan Post Doha Peace Deal”, “Kabul Crumbling Yet Again”, “Let’s Make it a Graceful Exit”, “Taliban’s Victory: Yet Another Strategic Worry for India”, and more recently in “Pentagon’s Foolish Friends”.

Ironically many Western embedded writers in Pakistan and elsewhere still continue to churn out naïve narratives and misleading data that in the first place became the raison d’être for US’ greatest politico-military failure.

Once bitten, twice shy, Pakistan and other like-minded countries need to be extremely careful in separating the wheat from the chaff as battles of false narrative will henceforth multiply as a main tool of sowing the seeds of suspicion, discord and mischief.

American President Joe Biden is being criticized by his unenviable predecessor Donald Trump for the outcome in Afghanistan. However, if Biden could prevail upon his incompetent advisers who continued to embarrass him till the last moment before 15th August, by feeding him false and faulty assessments, his name would go down in American history as a wise person. It is also time for introspection by the American administration to take stock of their consistent failure to correctly see the bigger picture, failed policies and strategies in the last 70 years as the international community, including NATO allies, see the US on a downward slope due to unrelenting blunders.

As regards prospects of resetting Pak-US relations, attention is drawn to my latest article “Pak-US Relations: How to Bridge the Widening Gap”. POTUS Biden will have to ensure that he is not led into initiating an equally costly and destabilizing covert war in Afghanistan and elsewhere or get embroiled in yet another Cold War in the Asia-Pacific region. Indian media has nevertheless gone berserk with frenzied whimpers on the social media as all Indian ambitions and conspiracies in Afghanistan and Central Asia have been blunted successfully. India’s 20 years’ investment in Afghanistan to pose a multi-dimensional and two-front war against Pakistan stands quashed and its proxies are running out like scared rats.

India stands exposed and embarrassed as an Indian film heroine after face wash; with a badly exposed false image created in the region as a strategic partner of America that could step over Pakistan and deliver against China. Nevertheless, Pakistan will have to ensure that the approximately 15,000 terrorists and saboteurs of the PTM and BLA/BRA, operating from Afghan soil as Indian trained and funded proxy (akin to Mukti Bahini of Agartala 1968-71 as proxies in former East Pakistan) meet their natural end with no mercy for their political handlers inside Pakistan. A lot of emotional symbolism is being attached to the date of Taliban’ victory on 15th August; i.e. Indian Independence Day. It was observed as a black day in IIOJ&K and henceforth in Afghanistan too, for India’s dirty role as a spoilerof peace there.

While it is a moment of great pride as well as gratitude to the Almighty, the people and Afghan Taliban, must not ever forget the extreme endurance shown by Pakistan in hosting millions of Afghan refugees for over 40 long years; besides, Pakistan took all blame, accusations, pressures and multi-dimensional international coercion for supporting the Afghan Taliban.

Acknowledgement is also due for Pakistan’s key role in making the Taliban sit on the dialogue table with the USA in February 2020; this was an opportunity deliberately missed by the cowardly Ashraf Ghani who continued to spit out RAW-NDS backed venom till disgracefully boarding a plane out of Kabul for his eventual hideout with his equally cowardly cabal. Moreover, Pakistan’s continued efforts paved the way for peace returning to Afghanistan and this needs to be appreciated by the people of Afghanistan, the Taliban, the USA, th regional and extra regional countries and all other stakeholders in Afghanistan. The people of Pakistan, in particular, should also thank Almighty Allah and greatly appreciate the Armed Forces, especially the Pakistan Army and all law enforcement and national intelligence agencies who successfully defeated all nefarious designs to shift the war to the Pakistani soil. It is a hard earned victory against global terrorism that was unleashed on Pakistan at a great social, economic and human cost; the immense sacrifices rendered by the people and the Armed Forces must be remembered with reverence.

While the peace process will take time to settle in Afghanistan, Pakistan must not suffer from complacency on any front. It has to brace for a host of diplomatic, political, economic and military eventualities without any waste of time. The pitfalls of a potential civil war or at least political mayhem cannot be brushed aside. The war of narratives is already in motion to further malign Pakistan. There are attempts to bolster proxies within Afghanistan to create geographic or ethnic divisions, a heightened covert war inside Pakistan to exacerbate the law and order situation in the urban centers, efforts to generate political chaos by corrupt political elite, flux of refugees, efforts to create cleavage among Pakistan, Turkey, Iran and other Muslim states, targeting BRI/CPEC projects and energising ETIM (East Turkistan Islamic Movement) against China.

These aspects need a timely and firm response. China, in coordination with Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and Central Asian Republics, will have to take the lead role in handling the Afghan situation as it is a strategic competitor of the USA. It goes without saying that the Taliban will need a lot of political, diplomatic and economic support from regional countries as well as the larger international community to bring around an inclusive political dispensation for long-term stability in their war ravaged country. Pakistan needs to keep its international borders with Afghanistan under control and effectively monitor them to avoid a repeat of history, besides maintaining a high vigil on internal security along the Eastern front.