Quest for Equilibrium

In terms of internal variables, prevailing historical and cultural ties between Pashtuns on both sides of the Durand Line ensure the prevalence of inextricable links between southern Afghanistan and Pakistan’s northern areas. Consequently, Pakistan has no choice but to adopt a proactive/preemptive approach when it comes to maintaining the stability of its northern areas. In many ways, Pakistan’s so-called “interference” in Afghanistan’s complex internal dynamics is a necessity borne more out of existential angst than any nefarious expansionary designs. The continuing hostility of the Afghan central government (use of the Pahtunistan issue) does little to convince Pakistan’s security managers that a less proactive approach might lead to some mitigation of their genuine concerns.

Pakistan’s so-called “interference” in Afghanistan’s complex internal dynamics is a necessity borne more out of existential angst than any nefarious expansionary designs.

The problem is further compounded by the fact that any fluidic instability in Pakistan’s northern areas could trigger the domino effect where other parts of the state might attempt, perhaps successfully, to cede from the union. Internal variables are clearly playing a pivotal role in shaping, both in terms of conceptualization as well as implementation, Pakistan’s policy approaches towards the mitigation of its Afghan conundrum. Proactive involvement in Afghan internal dynamics is an absolute necessity owing to the dynamics highlighted here but these policies require constant and consistent calibration lest they have a deleterious impact on Pakistan’s holistic security environment. The recent agreement between Washington and the Taliban is a perfect case in point. The success or failure of this agreement will have an indelible impact on Pakistan’s internal security dynamics, not to mention that an unstable/stable Afghanistan will also have an influence on South Asian security dynamics.

The intersection points between South Asian (sub-regional) and Asiatic (regional) security dynamics also play a pivotal role in shaping Pakistan’s policy approaches on Afghanistan. Prevailing systemic dynamics in the sub-regional realm are the primary source of the feelings of existential angst shaping and driving the perceptions of Pakistan’s security managers. The need to maintain systemic bipolarity within the South Asian context is one of the cornerstones of Pakistan’s overall prescriptive approach towards security. Curtailing India’s great power aspirations is pivotal to ensuring the prevalence of this sub-regional systemic bipolarity which, in turn, is crucial when it comes to ensuring Pakistan’s viability as a polity.

In other words, South Asian dynamics are the centerpiece around which Pakistan’s overall prescriptive approach towards security revolves. Afghan policy cannot be seen in isolation from this fact. At the same time, ongoing dynamics at the regional level cannot be ignored either owing to the prevalence of intricate links between it and the sub-regional realms. Consequently, the on-going great power dynamics that prevail between China and the United States are already having an indelible impact on overall Asian security dynamics and hence on sub-regional dynamics as well, South Asia being no exception. As a result, Pakistan’s security managers must attempt to adopt optimized policy options keeping in mind the prevailing links between Asiatic dynamics and Pakistan’s own geopolitical contextual specifics. Afghan policy is, once again, a perfect case in point where policy approaches need to be calibrated keeping overall Asian security dynamics in mind.

The recent agreement between Washington and the Taliban can be seen as a direct consequence of concerns that the former has regarding the systemic emergence of China as a viable peer competitor whereas for Pakistan it is about maintaining the stability of its own western frontier, thereby mitigating a serious source of its feelings of existential angst. A perfect case in point of how the prevalence of links between Asian and South Asian security dynamics has an indelible impact on Pakistan’s overall prescriptive approach towards security.

In short, Asian and South Asian security dynamics are intricately linked to the point where each realm is symbiotically connected to the other. The overall impact on Pakistan’s prevailing security posture is profound, to say the least. Pakistan’s security managers are in a constant struggle to find an equilibrium point between internal and external variables on the one hand and between sub-regional and regional dynamics on the other. The intersection points between the internal/external matrix and the perceptual realms matrix are difficult to clearly discern, let alone efficiently navigate. The Afghan policy is a clear example of how this policymaking conundrum plays itself out when it comes to the conceptualization and implementation of Pakistan’s overall approach towards security.