Axis of Resistance

Over the decades, Iran has conducted its aggressive foreign policies through its proxies, better known as Axis-of-Resistance. This Axis is in a pyramidical order, with Hezbollah at its top, followed by Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine, Houthis in Yemen, and several other small and big groups within Syria and Iraq. Th power of these proxies was exemplified during the decade of region-wide civil war when Iran-backed militias prevented the overthrow of Assad’s regime in Syria, helped Houthis defeat the Saudi-led operation in Yemen, and extended military and strategic support in the global war against ISIS. Given the entrenchment of Iran’s proxies in the region, there was a dominant perception that Iran, at the time, was in control of five capital cities of Tehran, Damascus, Baghdad, Beirut, and Saana.

The Gaza war has again revived the Axis of Resistance as Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other members of the Axis are playing a very different game. They have already consolidated an alliance of forces across a regional battlefield. The Axis is posing a direct challenge to the regional order created in the Middle East to shield Israel and its larger economic and strategic interests in the region.

Iran’s proxies have been in action against Israel since the latter launched its military operation in Gaza. Hezbollah, the closest ideological and military acolyte of Iran, has been in a war-like situation or war of attrition with Israel and inflicted significant damage to Israel through its frequent drone and missile attacks while losing hundreds of its members in Israeli military assaults. Houthis, on the other hand, also joined the war on the side of Hamas by obstructing and attacking ships. Since November 2023, hundreds of ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab in the southern Red Sea have been attacked, incurring substantial economic losses to many countries. Meanwhile, the US and its coalition bases in Iraq and Syria have seen a dramatic rise in rocket and drone attacks since the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war.
The killing of Haniya and Shukr has fuelled the possibility of more aggressive involvement of the members of the Axis of Resistance, and one is not sure if it is a matter of time alone or if Iran is still in the process of coordination with its regional proxies.

The Gaza war has again revived the Axis of Resistance as Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other members of the Axis are playing a very different game.

In a shocking revelation in August’s third week, Hezbollah circulated video images of large and complex tunnels with a huge military facility that seems to have been built inside a mountain. A large number of trucks carrying missiles could be seen in the video, along with the voice of Hezbollah chief Nasrullah. The display of the huge storage of missiles and drones inside the tunnel at such a critical moment fuels the possibility of another big war between Hezbollah and Israel. It seems Hezbollah is gearing up to avenge the death of Shukr, and Iran must be mulling a comprehensive plan for a tit-for-tat exercise. Over the weeks, incidents of cross-border firing between Hezbollah and Israeli forces have intensified, prompting the flurry of diplomatic activities to prevent the region from descending into chaos. Houthis, on its part, have already pledged full support to any military action targeting Israel. The failure of the last round of Doha ceasefire talks has also led to speculation of war as Iran in the past had hinted at revisiting its decision to attack Israel if it halts its operation in Gaza.

There are other sides to the story as well. The delay in Iran’s retaliation is being seen as Iran’s pragmatism, or Iran is still assessing the pros and cons of direct military confrontation with Israel. Iran is perhaps in no mood to hasten its action because any war with Israel would not be short or without grave consequences. A new government is in place in Iran, and of course, it would not like to let the assassination on its soil go unpunished, but it would also not like to enter into an unending quagmire that its two immediate neighbours (Iraq and Afghanistan) have witnessed.

As the days and weeks pass, one is nearing a conclusion that Iran would not retaliate because new reformist President Masoud would preferably use the moment to alleviate the economic sanction by not antagonizing Israel’s allies and bringing the nation out of decades-old economic woes. But if Iran opts for a symbolic retribution like in the past, it could embolden Israel for further military action against Iran, and hence, Iran does not seem to have been left with a pleasant situation.