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Erratic Alliance

In Nepal, the differences within the leaders of the five-party ruling coalition are likely to be the Achilles’ heel for the current government, creating rifts and disputes and widening the crevices of disagreement even more.

By Salis Malik | March 2022

Even after just half a year to its formation, Nepal’s coalition government seems to be hanging onto power by a thread and the incessant political turmoil is making the future of the government even more precarious. Whilst the various members of the coalition lay claim to the longevity of the government, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba remains reticent and the Nepali Congress – the main party forming the coalition – has lapsed into silence over the fate of the coalition. The difference in the attitudes of the ruling elite in Nepal coupled with various other factors makes the future of the government seem very bleak.

Perhaps the nail in the coffin to this coalition can most likely be the opposition to the Millennium Challenge Corporation’s (MCC) Nepal Compact, which offered the incumbent government 500 million dollars in grants for various road maintenance projects and setting up transmission lines.

The centrepiece of the coalition, the Nepali Congress, was hell-bent on endorsing the MCC and its Nepal Compact, however, the coalition partners, the CPN-Unified Socialist and CPN- Maoist Centre were sceptical about the deal and opposed Prime Minister Deuba for bidding for the MCC Nepal Compact. These differences within the rank and file of the five-party ruling coalition are likely to be the Achilles’ heel for the current government, creating rifts and disputes and widening the crevices of disagreement even more. This has also led the Prime Minister to go adrift towards the side of the opposition, the CPN-UML party, led by former prime minister KP Sharma Oli. Oli had stressed that he would provide support on the condition that PM Deuba is ready to cut ties with the coalition partners.

This further deteriorated the political scene for the government in general and for the country in particular as the Unified Socialist and Maoist Centre were only ready to MCC Nepal Compact only after amendments to the election law in order to make them compatible with the constitution.

At the time of writing this, PM Deuba was steadfast on moving the MCC Compact in the Parliament. As the Americans had set a deadline, Deuba has been under pressure ever since as this had also provided fuel to the fire. MCC had responded that the time period of five months sought by them would conclude by the end of February and it hoped for the compact ratification by then, otherwise a board meeting of the MCC would decide the future of the compact in March 2022.


The MCC agreement wasn’t the only conundrum plaguing the coalition but also the decision of local election dates. Although the timeframe for the election dates has been decided upon by the coalition, this wasn’t without its fair share of opposition.

Yet again, the Maoist Centre and the Unified Social party proved to be the thorn in the side of the coalition by trying to delay the polls as these two don’t have a strong position at the local level. The leaders of these two parties were adamant on having parliamentary elections instead of the local elections after Pushpa Kamal, the Chairman of Maoist Centre proposed this idea. Even the small acts of disagreement like these can likely create friction between the coalition and serve as the ignition for the collapse of the government. Now that the election date has been announced, questions have arisen as to how the coalition will move forward.

Another major problem the current government is facing is its stability. With such a volatile government that could likely evaporate even at the slightest of disagreements, Prime Minister Deuba has an uphill task ahead. In the Parliament of 275 lawmakers, the Nepali Congress, has only 61 legislators, while their coalition partner, the CPN-Maoist Centre, chaired by Pushpa Kamal Dahal has 48 officials and the JS has 32 administrators.

The opposition, on the other hand, the CPN-UML, has 121 legislators in the Parliament. During the vote of confidence for the seat of Prime Minister, PM Deuba got the help of his own party, the Nepali Congress, alongside 48 individuals from the CPN-Maoist Centre and 32 individuals from the JSP. What’s more intriguing is that he even got support from 22 legislators from the Madhav Kumar Nepal group of CPN-UML and eight extra administrators of Oli’s group.

On the face of it, the parties that voted in favour of Deuba, were doing so for their own interests and differences among the coalition were bound to arise. It is because of these elements that Deuba was unable to figure out how to appropriately establish public authority even a month after he took over as the Prime Minister. Such an erratic and turbulent alliance can never cease to exist for a complete term. Only time can tell what’s in store for Nepal and for its abysmal political landscape.

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