Cover Story 
 

Cover Story

Love Thy Neighbour

A permanent thawing of relations between India and Pakistan is an imperative that must be pursued with all seriousness if the people of the region are to progress.

By Brigadier Saleem Qamar Butt (Retd) | May 2021

There was great media hype of the news of hotline contact between the Army DGMOs of Pakistan and India and announcement of ceasefire along the Line of Control and working boundary on 25th February 2021. These events were followed by Pakistan Army chief’s statement on 18th March “let’s bury the past and move forward”. The preceding and succeeding context of the speech -fully utilize economic potential of the region and resolve Kashmir issue peacefully was not highlighted by Indian media.

This gave birth to a lot of speculations and interpretations. The credit for this projected cooling off was given to backdoor diplomacy based on mediatory efforts by the UAE and most probably a push by the USA.

While the usual pointless denials about the secret meetings abroad were being offered, a letter from the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was sent to his counterpart Mr. Imran Khan, wishing him and the people of Pakistan good wishes on the occasion of Pakistan Day on March 23; it was promptly reciprocated in adequate diplomatic parlance. Then came a meeting on the Indus Water Treaty in New Delhi, which was more cosmetic in nature. It was followed by conjectures about possible participation of Indian troops in joint drills of SCO countries organized by Pakistan and renewal of the SAARC Summit to be held in Islamabad that may even be attended by Mr. Modi. Then a surprising announcement was made by Pakistan to import cotton and sugar from India.

All these sudden and fast-paced developments were given wide media coverage both in the subcontinent and overseas. It looked like the tail wagging the dog. Sooner than later, Prime Minister Imran Khan and the Pakistan foreign office had to dispel the rumours created around Pakistan’s principled stance on the resolution of the Kashmir issue; obviously due to the political heat generated in the country. What could have caused the hasty events, especially in the backdrop of some significant developments in 2019, which was considered a pivotal year for Kashmir. In February, there were clashes between the two nations. On August 5, 2019, India took a decision to abrogate Articles 35A and 370. It then resorted to division of IIOJ&K (illegally Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir) into two parts and declared it an integral part of India. It then launched the Citizenship Amendment Act and NRC, specifically targeting the Muslim majority in India and facilitated issuance of domicile to Indians to become citizens of IIOJ&K to change its demography. India established Sainaks - retired Indian military personnel colonies and handed over economic control of Kashmir to the Indian rich class by giving away industrial zones in Kashmir, and putting the valley under complete lockdown with heightened atrocities unleashed to suppress the freedom struggle. This compelled Prime Minister Imran Khan’s passionate UNGA speech. The rapidly evolving regional and extra-regional geo-strategic environment, drawing up of fresh battle lines in Eurasia, the CASA (Central Asia-South Asia) and Indo-Pacific regions, global economic and military realignments and some pressing domestic politico-economic compulsions of both Pakistan and India seem to have contributed towards the so-called Indo-Pakistan thaw.

The USA obviously wishes to focus on China as a Number One economic and military competitor while keeping an effective check on old rival Russia. For that her first priority is the realization of the American Indo-Pacific strategy through a Quad Group (USA, India, Japan, Australia) with the potential to become more like a new mini-NATO alliance with inclusion of countries like UK, France, South Korea, Philippines, etc., while keeping the other regional countries aligned. The USA would like India to be unhooked from Pakistan to allow her to concentrate on contesting China that has recently given well measured political-cum-military embarrassment to India in the Ladakh region. Besides, India as a new strategic ally is expected by America to help her keep a strong foothold in Afghanistan for keeping an eye on nuclear Pakistan, assist spying on Iran and complement American efforts to exert in the Russian sphere of influence in Central Asia. India could also be used by the USA to pinprick Western China and counter the Chinese BRI project in the CASA region. It is obviously a win-win situation for India on all counts, especially after having almost settled the Kashmir issue as per their strategic calculus and they now have false claims on Pakistan’s northern areas and Azad Kashmir.

shireen-mazariChina considers the success of CPEC as a flagship project of BRI that essentially aims at regional and global economic integration. Therefore, any major conflict between Pakistan and India is bound to not only retard CPEC but may also dilute the chances of India and other regional countries to ultimately join BRI for mutual economic dividends. Hence, China would also like and support a rapprochement between Pakistan and India though with necessary safeguards to thwart the USA’s aims and objects. As regards its border dispute with India, China has just proven her resolve and capability to settle it on its own terms but without losing focus on BRI till it can attain the status of a leading global economic power.

Russia is already effectively countering US and its allies and reasserting herself in Eurasia and the CASA region. Despite India becoming a strategic US ally and a member of the Quad group to Russia’s dismay, Indian and Russian economic and military cooperation stays upbeat. However, any Indian role to help solidify American influence or military footprint in her sphere of influence in the CASA region is unlikely to get Russian approval. This was evidenced by the recent visit of the Russian foreign minister to India, Pakistan and Afghanistan and announcement of cooperation with Pakistan in the economic and military fields, including counter-terrorism and Afghanistan peace. This is yet another evidence of shifting geo-political and strategic priorities. Any future conflict between Pakistan and India would be highly detrimental to regional peace and development with adverse impact on Russia. Therefore, softening between India and Pakistan comforts her too.

India has a plethora of political, economic and security problems, mostly aggravated by Mr. Modi’s BJP regime fanning the RSS-based extremist Hindutva ideology. There are many woes that India faces. These include the declining economic graph, public reaction to its atrocities in IIOJ&K, gross human rights violations, maltreatment of minorities causing international voices of protest, farmers’ revolution joined by many other oppressed millions, more than a dozen active independence movements, rampant corruption, politico-military embarrassment suffered from China’s slap in the Ladakh region, enhanced pressure by the US to mend fences with Pakistan and focus on stopping to contest China. These appear to have driven India towards yielding to a cosmetic dialogue with Pakistan from a position of perceived strength.

Pakistan agreed to secret backdoor contacts with India after probably a nudge from the US and a few other countries. However, the adverse impact of such an endeavour on the long-standing Kashmir dispute as well as outcome of peace efforts in Afghanistan obviously went amiss. These are now being addressed in an awkward manner. How and why such an ill timed and hasty effort was made needs to be considered, no matter how good the intentions were.

The history of India-Pakistan core disputes, four major conflicts and secret and public diplomacy are too well-known. It is a given that ultimately all disputes are solved through political determination and diplomatic skills; therefore, any direct or indirect effort to find peace must be appreciated. The deliberate appraisal of the global, regional and domestic environment and selection of a favourable time and place for undertaking dispute resolution through farsighted composite dialogue always remains an undeniable imperative.

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