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Détente
The is the only way forward in India-Pakistan relations.

Whenever two neighbouring states with strong political and military standoff, acquire nuclear capabilities with effective delivery means, the entire gambit of diplomacy and warfare changes. Nuclear parity (that exists between Pakistan and India) if properly understood by political and military leaderships, nearly precludes nuclear war as well as conventional military operations. This automatically pushes the conflict in the political, diplomatic, psychological and economic zones. The danger of overt suicidal conflagration, institutes deterrence, but may give space to other types of warfare, falling in the ambit of Hybrid War or Low Intensity Conflict (LIC) definition. But it has to be understood that if the pain threshold of the opponent is crossed, LIC can escalate and lead to dangerous and unthinkable overt operations. If these facts can sink in the minds of both groups of decision-makers and trouble-makers, they would realize that India and Pakistan have no option but to change their attitudes from adversarial to cooperation mode.
Without going into the lengthy discussion of the reasons of deep-rooted mistrust and adversarial nature of Indo-Pak relations, the conclusions could be simplified to dump it on ‘history’, ‘unresolved issues’ and ‘absence of will at politico-military’ levels of both countries. Also, there are enough indicators that some ‘other players’, due to their own political and economic interests, are not very keen to see a rapprochement or détente in the relationship of these two neighbours in the subcontinent.
Organizing Kulbubshan type networks, disinformation campaigns revealed by the EU Disinformation Lab and Indian adversarial actions revealed by our New Folder, do not auger well in the already deteriorated relationships. Continued atrocities in IIOK are further vitiating the entire environment. If India is really interested in building up trust in the region and work for an economically and politically integrated bloc, then it must resolve irritants and serious political and territorial issues with all its neighbours. For that, serious efforts will have to be made by all involved parties. In this article we shall concentrate on Indo-Pak detente only, though the situation is entangled with the rivalry of Great Players but we need to break away from that and concentrate on mutual interests. Indian growing Strategic Relations with the US, including the intended cooperation in managing Indo-Pacific Region, vis a vis Pakistan’s pursuance of CPEC as an important component of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, further hardens the adversarial sentiments in the two neighbours.
Now, under the prevailing environment, where do we go? How do we get a fresh start? Ceasefire along the Line of Control and Prime Minister Imran Khan’s offer to start the dialogue with a certain precondition, amply supported by COAS Gen Qamar Bajwa, could have been a good starting point. I propose moving from easier to difficult. First let us try to get out of the groove of past history of animosity and concentrate on the present sticking issues. Who did what to whom? Which grand empire was more grand in expanse and administration, Hindu, Muslim or Sikh? What conditions led to the partition of the subcontinent, etc., etc? The matter of fact is that India and Pakistan are two separate nation-states, and both have the ability to do very well in the comity of nations. Both countries are very well recognised the world over with memberships of all significant international and regional organizations and forums. Unfortunately both neighbours are afflicted with poverty, illiteracy, social and economic injustices and bad governance, to varying degrees. Social indicators are dismal and whatever resources have been developed, a major chunk of those are being wasted in continued useless confrontation.
So, can we try forgetting the bygones and start afresh, willingly accepting each other’s existence and importance, with an understanding that the future rather than the past should guide our relations? Coexist like any good neighbours in spite of some difficult issues that definitely require resolution. The two sides must realize that ‘international arms producers’ and those ‘entities that get threatened’ by the political and economic cooperation of the two neighbours, would never like and not encourage peace in the region. Our leaderships and peoples should not remain naive to fall prey to such machinations, and must show resolve and grit to live like self-reliant, confident, honourable countries, capable of making independent decisions, suiting the interests of about one and a half billion people of this region. We must refuse to become the leading weaponry markets, and to play puppets in the hands of those who want us to remain perpetually in a hate loop, whether these are external or internal entities. But, in my humble opinion, the onus of removing the environment of distrust and giving confidence for normalizing relations, squarely rests on the bigger power, that is India. And the first step in this direction would be immediate cessation of a hostile Indian attitude against the hapless populace of IIOK. Closely related step has already been taken by both sides , that is the end of perpetual ceasefire violations along the LoC. This is a good omen, but not enough to kick start the talks.
The present situation, where India continues to pressurize Pakistan through kinetic and non-kinetic actions via Afghanistan and by exploiting Pakistan’s internal fronts, and Pakistan exercising extreme restraint, is not tenable for very long. Sooner or later Pakistan will realize the futility of unilateral good behaviour, and may start reacting by exploiting abundantly available internal cleavages in the Indian polity, bringing all hopes of peace to a naught. Talks can only start if both sides realize that they need to stop causing pain to each other.
Now, coming on to the difficult area of outstanding disputes, unfortunately, the number of disputes has been increasing and piling up with the passage of time, thus raising the level of difficulty to pursue normalization. Kashmir and waters were our initial and basic sticking points. We added to it Sir Creek, Siachen, Bombay, Pathankot, Balakot, terrorism, and now abrogation of Article 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution, etc. Some of the newly created issues could be resolved if the relevant experts with clear political guidance, meet at serious platforms and undertake deliberations that lead to mutually acceptable positions. Also, the two sides must show sincerity and resolve not to create further issues that would increase the already existing alienation between the two nations. Yes, Kashmir is the core issue, and not easy to resolve. Both sides had agreed many times in the past that it is an unfinished agenda of the partition, duly endorsed by UN resolutions. Any later bilateral agreements have not annulled the UN resolutions. But the present and immediate problem is of acute human rights violations in Indian-held Kashmir and unilateral change in the status of Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir, and efforts to change the demographic pattern continuing unabated and intensifying with the passage of time. So immediate focus should be to reduce the woes of the Kashmiri people and both countries along with the Kashmiris must agree, as a first step, to resolve this humanitarian issue. Pakistan will definitely respond positively to any such move.
The hard core and enduring problem of Kashmir can only be solved in steps. And we can do it without compromising on the UN Resolutions and bilateral agreements. The initial phase could be to ask India to consider giving relief to the people of Indian Held Kashmir. Consider stopping their persecution due to their variant political thoughts of independence or being pro–Pakistan, etc. Allow them normal life with enough political space to vent out their feelings. Secondly, both countries should talk about demilitarization of the Kashmir region. Simultaneously, create easement of movement and interaction, enabling social and economic activities in the region. Encourage people-to-people contact thus creating the right environment to recognize the Kashmiris as the legitimate third party and initiate debates in pursuit of final settlement of the issue. The UN Resolutions and all international and bilateral agreements remain intact pending the final agreement by the three parties.
If the two countries succeed in lowering the tensions and switch to a cooperation mode, one and half billion people of the region will benefit immensely. India will restart following the economic growth trajectory and smaller countries of the region will be able to latch on to this growing economy. Pakistan will be able to re-orient its resources and overcome its economic and social woes. The whole region, including India, will be able to benefit from China’s new initiatives. India’s desire of passage rights through Pakistan, both East-West and North-South, will likely to be fulfilled. Iran, Afghanistan, the entire SAARC region and CARs will get connected and business as usual will result in social and economic development of a large chunk of the world. We shall all create bright prospects for one another, propelling the entire region on the rapid growth curve, bringing happiness and good life for all. Unprecedented growth, likely as the hard earned capital, will be diverted towards social sectors, raising the standards of education, health, justice and economic opportunities for the long-deprived habitants of this unlucky region and beyond.
Now it is well-understood that all of the foregoing is easier said than done; but it is the leadership in this region which is intellectually so bankrupt that we cannot see even our own bleak future if we continue on the present track? It is for India to understand that by keeping Pakistan under pressure, they also have no prospects to achieve their international political goals. I think it would amount to insulting our collective wisdom and foresight if we think we will never be able to correct our course. People, media, intellectuals, leaders, soldiers, traders, farmers, and every segment of civil society should get involved in carving out our new destiny and force the present tides of hate and bigotry to subside, replacing it with cooperation, understanding and love. This is what all religions and philosophies profess.
Both countries should consider starting negotiations on a No Aggression Pact, Resolution of Outstanding Issues through Peaceful Means, Strategic Stability Steps etc. Also people-to-people contacts, business communities’ interactions, sports and cultural exchanges should be encouraged. All this is only possible in the environment of mutual respect and accommodation. This must become the top priority of the two governments. For this purpose special task forces should be constituted on both sides, comprising politicians, diplomats, social scientists, jurists and nuclear experts, etc. We have only three distinct options:
1. Resolve issues and put South Asia on a development trajectory.
2. Continue with the present attitudes and remain poor and downtrodden.
3. Attempt a fatal blow at each other and cause mutual annihilation.
Let us start a movement on both sides of the border to rise above petty or even bigger issues and get into the mode of resolving the problems, rather than fighting with or over them. This all might look strange coming from a veteran soldier. But believe it or not, no one hates war more than a soldier. ![]()
The writer is a former Minister of Defence and former Secretary of Defence. He can be reached at naeemlodhi53@gmail.com |
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