No Ifs and Buts

First, the stellar performance of the Pakistani military against Indian aggression in May this year has immensely raised Pakistan’s reputational stock both militarily and geo-politically in the region and internationally. This is in contrast to the severe loss of India’s military clout and geo-political reputation. The world loves - and respects - a winner. After the May 2025 conflict, Pakistan and India are being viewed through a new lens of the conflict outcome, where Pakistan was the clear winner.

Destroying 10% of the fielded Indian Air Force’s modern fleet within one hour of high-intensity aerial combat with no loss to Pakistan Air Force is a performance that needs no advertising campaign. Unlike India, the world knows how to count. Shooting down 4 x Rafales, 1 x Mirage 2000, 1 x SU-30, and 1 x MIG-29, in addition to the highly reputed S-400 air defence battery, is almost like a partridge shooting spree on a Sunday. Why I say 10% of the fielded IAF’s modern fleet is because on the morning of 7th May, India attacked mainland Pakistan with 72 top-of-the-line fighters, and 7 kills out of 72 is exactly 10%.

Pakistan’s best brand ambassador in this context, without doubt, has been U.S. President Donald Trump. He is so impressed with Pakistan’s war performance that he can’t stop recalling the seven downed Indian fighters every time he speaks about the recent India-Pakistan conflict.

The SMDA has caused ripples in the region and is bound to generate appropriate politico-strategic deterrence effects in due course

Before May 2025, most international observers generally took for granted the numerical superiority of India’s conventional military forces over Pakistan. However, it was also well recognized that Pakistan’s robust nuclear weapons capability, based on the policy of Full Spectrum Deterrence, had established an overall strategic balance in South Asia and that deterrence against aggression was firmly in place. However, against the logic of this conventional wisdom, when India, having first staged a false flag operation at Pahalgam, attacked Pakistan on the morning of 7th May, Pakistan’s heavy retaliatory response came as a body blow to India.

The adverse conflict outcome has far-reaching cascading effects on India’s military reputation, geo-political importance, and a nose-dive foreign policy. India has been reduced to seeking solace in two internationally isolated characters, Benjamin Netanyahu and Mullah Amir Khan Mutaqqi, who were entertained as poster boys of India’s foreign policy.

Second, the immediate impetus for the signing of the SMDA seemingly was the failed Israeli attack on Doha, Qatar, in an attempt to kill the Hamas negotiating team. It was a clear Israeli strategic overreach, one that went too far in Israeli arrogance and audacity. In many ways, the failed strike boomeranged on Israel to the extent that President Trump compelled Netanyahu to apologize to the Emir of Qatar on the telephone. It also led to the urgency in shaping President Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza and peace in the broader Middle East.

In hindsight, the Israeli attack can be seen as a game-changing strategic event that has led to several unintended consequences for the larger Middle Eastern region as well as for South Asia. The Gulf Countries, which for all these decades had been basking under the illusion of a US security guarantee, felt deeply insecure overnight as Israel defied that security guarantee by attacking Qatar and exposed the U.S. guarantee for what it all along had been: a lot of hot air.

With a complete loss of confidence in US security guarantees, the KSA and other Gulf countries felt deeply exposed and vulnerable. Netanyahu was on a brutal rampage, blatantly advertising the map of Greater Israel as his politico-strategic and religious objective. The map indicates the rough boundaries of Greater Israel from the Euphrates in Iraq in the east to the Nile in Egypt in the west, and from Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan in the north to include some of Saudi Arabia’s northern territories, certainly including Tabuk, and in some cases, all the way south to Madina Al Munawara.

With the confidence in US security guarantees shaken to the core, the KSA decided to seek a new security umbrella from the freshly victorious Pakistani military by formalizing some of the already existing arrangements with the addition of the all-important clause of “aggression against one country being considered as aggression against both countries.” Pakistan was pleased to agree promptly.
17th September 2025 was, in many ways, a red-letter day in Pakistan-Saudi Arabia strategic ties and created much excitement in both countries at the common man’s level. The SMDA now formally binds the two countries to come to the assistance of each other in case of aggression, even though the finer mechanics and details are not yet available in the public domain. The broad Agreement in principle, nevertheless, has caused ripples in the region and is bound to generate appropriate politico-strategic deterrence effects in due course.

In the Indian media, particularly, there has been considerable animated debate with many analysts insisting that when it comes to a future India-Pakistan war scenario, the KSA will likely take into account its strong economic ties with India and its financial investments.

The SMDA, however, does not contain any ifs and buts or ambiguity and is very specific in its language. The SMDA clearly provides politico-strategic benefits and comfort to both partners. One would like to wish iron-clad security for both the KSA and Pakistan as their eternal friendship flourishes for the benefit of both brotherly countries. The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement is indeed a bonding of brothers.