Agreement or Treaty?

How could the recently signed Pakistan–Saudi Arabia defense agreement affect the region? How do regional countries view this agreement? Was this agreement made against the will of global powers? And will it disturb the balance of power in the region, or will it create balance and stability instead? Before analyzing these questions, it is crucial to understand that the defense cooperation between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia is an agreement, not a treaty.

Legally, an agreement does not hold the same weight as a treaty. Treaties are far stronger legally, such as the Indus Waters Treaty, which India has been unable to revoke despite many attempts. Similarly, as the term suggests, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a treaty; exiting or joining it requires meeting strict conditions. In contrast, agreements can be maintained or terminated without such rigid requirements. However, when two countries enter into agreements, it reflects their seriousness on specific matters, and such cooperation is formalized into agreements only when both parties are aligned.

Now, let’s discuss the Pakistan–Saudi Arabia defense agreement. While not all its details are public, the key provision disclosed is that an attack on one country will be considered an attack on the other. This raises the question: if both countries agree to this, what form of cooperation can they extend to each other in case of such an attack?

Pakistan:

As a nuclear power, Pakistan is considered a militarily strong country. With Chinese support in recent years, Pakistan has made significant advancements in modern warfare. This was demonstrated during India’s “Operation Sindhur,” when Pakistan, using advanced electronic warfare, downed seven Indian fighter jets, including four French-made Rafales. Alongside multi-domain aerial capability, modern missile technology, and nuclear power, Pakistan is fully capable not only of defending its own sovereignty but also of supporting another country’s defense.

Historically, Pakistani forces have served in Saudi Arabia for defensive purposes. Media reports suggest that currently 1,500 to 2,000 Pakistani troops are stationed in Saudi Arabia, training Saudi forces while also providing defense services. Under this new agreement, Pakistan may increase its troop presence in the kingdom. Both countries’ officials have even indicated that Pakistan could provide Saudi Arabia with a “nuclear umbrella” under this defense pact.

Saudi Arabia:

Resource-rich Saudi Arabia possesses advanced weaponry, but it relies heavily on the U.S. and the West for arms supplies. Moreover, Saudi forces lack combat experience and are not trained for prolonged or complex wars against professional armies. Although Saudi Arabia has abundant financial resources, it has historically outsourced its defense responsibilities to Egypt and Jordan in the early years, then Pakistan, and now primarily to the United States.

So, under this agreement, what can Saudi Arabia offer Pakistan? As per this scribe, Pakistan will gain multidimensional benefits. Expecting Saudi forces to directly defend Pakistani soil in case of war is unrealistic, and Pakistan doesn’t need Saudi manpower anyway. However, Saudi Arabia can provide crucial logistical and financial support during peacetime and wartime, further strengthening Pakistan’s defense. For example, many of Pakistan’s defense projects, such as achieving self-reliance, developing the indigenous PF-X fighter jet, and purchasing modern military hardware, are under pressure due to funding shortages. With Saudi financial assistance, these projects could progress rapidly. Pakistan could also expand its missile technology, possibly transferring some of this advanced technology to Saudi Arabia.

Another perception about Pakistan is that it cannot sustain a long war due to financial constraints. Yet, with Saudi oil supplies and financial support, Pakistan could indeed fight a prolonged conflict. Similarly, non-military projects like the Bhasha Dam and other water reservoir construction are crucial for national security. India’s threats to block Pakistan’s water and suspend the Indus Waters Treaty make their rapid completion even more urgent. Saudi investment in such projects could accelerate their progress, directly strengthening Pakistan’s foundations.

India:

India’s relations with Pakistan have been strained since the Partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947, but its ties with Saudi Arabia have never been hostile. In fact, Saudi Arabia is India’s fifth-largest trading partner, exporting around $32 billion worth of oil and other goods annually, while India exports nearly $12 billion to Saudi Arabia. About three million Indians live in Saudi Arabia, sending $12 billion in remittances back home.