Pakistan is treading a diplomatic tightrope as it attempts to find an equilibrium between its close ties to China, its time-tested ally, and its renewed outreach to the United States under President Donald Trump’s administration.

Pakistan’s geographic proximity to China and its deep economic dependence, particularly through projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), make distancing from Beijing impractical and potentially detrimental. On the other hand, its thawing of diplomatic relations with Washington presents Pakistan with a rare opportunity to reassert its global relevance. It is also an opportunity to attract investments, which are much needed for its ailing economy.

Considering this complex and nuanced geopolitical equation, Pakistan must adopt a stance of political neutrality to protect its national interests and avoid alienation from either superpower.

This discussion presents the essential question of how Pakistan can maintain this precarious balance with both superpowers locked in a broader global rivalry. Several significant points should be considered in analyzing how Pakistan can navigate this delicate geopolitical tightrope.

Leveraging Economic Diplomacy and Maintaining Neutrality
Pakistan should continue to deepen its ties with the CPEC while actively pursuing US investments in non-competing sectors such as technology, minerals, and renewable energy.

Negotiating trade agreements with China and the United States without exclusivity is key. For instance, Pakistan could pursue reducing tariffs with the US while ensuring the CPEC projects.

Strategies in Security and Counterterrorism
Pakistan procures 80% of its military weaponry from China, which is critical in the country’s defense positioning, particularly against India. It must be noted that the United States also offers counterterrorism cooperation, with particular attention to groups such as the IS-K and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BAL), which threaten CPEC projects and regional peace and stability. The US has recently designated a Baloch separatist group as a terrorist organization and praised Pakistan’s efforts in counterterrorism.

Therefore, Pakistan should deepen its intelligence-sharing and counterterrorism partnership with the United States without compromising its military alignment with China.

Furthermore, it is key to avoid taking a stance on US-China tensions, for instance, in matters involving Iran or the South China Sea.

A significant balancing act presents itself in Pakistan’s relations with India, a historically key US partner (although US-India bilateral relations have been strained of late), and its proximity to Iran. Given these complexities, Pakistan should pursue discreet diplomacy with India to sustain the May 2025 ceasefire. This would reduce the risks of conflict that could force it to lean too heavily on China or the United States.