Between the Dragon and the Eagle

In the year 2011, the sovereignty of Pakistan was breached by the U.S on three occasions. First, the arrest of CIA contractor Raymond Davis in Lahore on charges of killing two motorcyclists in January 2011. Because of enormous pressure exerted on the ruling establishment of Pakistan by the then Obama administration to release Davis, he was set free under the orders of the court when blood money was paid to the heirs of the dead victims. Second, on May 2, ‘Operation Geromino’, also known as the Abbottabad operation, in which U.S. Navy SEALs in helicopters breached the sovereignty of Pakistan and found global terrorist Osama bin Laden in a compound in Abbottabad. Pakistan remained silent despite the blatant violation of its sovereignty. Third, the Salala incident of November 2011, when several Pakistani soldiers were killed on the Pakistan-Afghan border by the U.S forces. In retaliation, Pakistan merely closed NATO supplies for the U.S in Afghanistan for some time. There are other examples to prove how the U.S took Pakistan for granted and every time Islamabad yielded to American pressure.

Pakistan should also pursue a policy of self-reliance instead of relying on foreign aid and loans from friendly countries or international agencies.

Unlike the United States, China never let down Pakistan and always acknowledged Islamabad’s facilitation role for mending fences with the United States. China’s honest approach towards Pakistan could be gauged from the fact that when President Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger were having a conversation with the Chinese leadership during the visit to Peking in 1972, the U.S told Chinese leaders that Pakistan may have helped for normalization in relations between China and the U.S., but both sides should now forget Pakistan’s role. On this point, Chinese leaders snubbed the U.S by saying that China is not a selfish country and will always acknowledge Pakistan’s role as a bridge state in normalizing relations with the U.S.

Unlike the U.S, China has remained steadfast in support of Pakistan during May 7-10 war with India but ironically, Islamabad nominated the U.S President Donald Trump for Nobel Peace Prize and Pakistan’s Army Chief thrice visited the U.S in just two months which indicated how Islamabad has tilted towards Washington having a wishful thinking that Trump has turned against India.

The question that Pakistan should choose between the Dragon and the Eagle needs to be answered in three ways. First, Pakistan must focus on its progress and development and put its house in order. In that case, Pakistan will not depend on foreign loans and aid. In foreign policy, sovereignty and the right kind of diplomacy matter. Maintaining a balanced policy is essential for Pakistan so that foreign powers do not exploit it. It all depends on the elites of Pakistan, who should have enough confidence to ensure sovereignty and focus on economic vibrancy, political stability, good governance, and the rule of law.

Tilting in favor of the U.S during the Trump administration will be risky and counter-productive. Trump’s unpredictable nature will not guarantee stability in Pakistan-U.S. relations. If the U.S is siding with Pakistan because it intends to get hold of mineral and natural resources amounting to 7.5 trillion dollars, primarily buried underneath in Baluchistan, it will certainly alarm China. Second, in the present circumstances, there is a relative paradigm shift in India-U.S. relations. Ironically, two decades of U.S.-Indian strategic understanding have gone down the drain, particularly because of Trump’s tilt towards Pakistan and imposition of heavy tariffs on India. That has led to closeness between China and India. When India is an important member of Quad along with the United States, Australia, and Japan to contain China in the Asia-Pacific region, a breakthrough in relations between China and India will be a significant setback to the U.S.

The Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s forthcoming visit to China after seven years to attend the BRICS summit gives a valuable opportunity to mend fences in China-India relations. Imposing around 50% tariff on Indian imports under the pretext of India buying oil from Russia is another area of discord in India-U.S. relations. Given the China-Russia strategic alliance under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS, Russia may convince China to seize the opportunity to lower India-U.S. ties and mend fences with New Delhi. A new paradigm of China, India, and Russia’s strategic partnership in response to growing Pakistan-U.S. ties will have major regional implications.

Finally, it is feasible for Pakistan to consider having China as an all-weather friend instead of testing the untested ally again. However, Pakistan’s age-old friendship with China should not be at the expense of its ties with the United States or any other major power. Furthermore, Pakistan must not put all its eggs in one basket regarding foreign policy and maintain a strategic balance and foresight. This will only happen when the governing elites of Pakistan are mindful of the fragility of the economy, politics, bad governance, and absence of the rule of law. Pakistan should also pursue a policy of self-reliance instead of relying on foreign aid and loans from friendly countries or international agencies.

The growing debt under CPEC should be a source of alarm for Pakistan. Even if China is a tested friend of Pakistan, there is no such thing as free lunch, and its sovereignty will be compromised if Islamabad fails to repay its debts or periodically requests donors to roll over debts. Pakistan should also be mindful of the gradual mending of fences in China-India relations and the erosion of India-U.S. ties. Choosing between the dragon and the eagle may be an uphill task for Pakistan. Still, if the country’s leadership is equipped with confidence, integrity, and a professional approach in foreign policy, it can surely protect its national interests and sovereignty.