Welcome to ‘Trump 2.0 Live’!
“The world may not want to watch it, but it has no choice. The U.S. still holds a central role in the global order—whether in the economy, security, or geopolitics—so in that sense, it remains hegemonic,” says Dr. Paul Poast, Deputy Dean of Doctoral Education, Social Science Division and Associate Professor, Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago (UChicago). “Trump’s desire to be at the center of global attention, his sweeping policy changes, and domestic efforts to shrink government operations create a situation where the world has to watch,” shares Dr. Poast.
A 19th-Century Playbook?
With many experts describing today’s global power shifts as destabilizing, is this a unique moment in history? “Much of what we’re seeing today is a shift from what we’ve grown accustomed to, especially in the post-Cold War and even post-World War II world. But if we look at the power relations between countries and even the evolving role of the U.S. under the Trump administration, none of this is unprecedented,” says Dr. Poast from UChicago. “His (Trump’s) political mindset is rooted in the 19th century. He has frequently referenced William McKinley, claiming he was one of the greatest U.S. presidents.”
Given the reality of the present day, one may need to look further back, towards the late 19th and early 20th centuries. “In that sense, Trump’s instincts aren’t entirely misplaced; he believes the U.S. should act like a 19th-century power because today’s world, in some ways, mirrors that era more than it does the recent past,” mentions Dr. Poast.
Why the 19th Century Matters Today
For Dr. Christopher McKnight Nichols, Professor of History and Wayne Woodrow Hayes Chair in National Security Studies at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies at The Ohio State University, today’s geopolitical climate, with shifting alliances and rising multipolarity, has shades of the late 19th century. “From an international relations and historical perspective, that period marked the onset of industrialization, urbanization, and the modern nation-state,” he mentions how, as the modern nation-states emerged, rivalries between them took new forms.
Dr. Nichols compares Trump’s “America First” policies to Britain’s imperial decline, like his skepticism of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and trade deals, which echoes 19th-century isolationism. “The U.S. is a declining power, but the real questions are: how much and how fast? Donald Trump’s foreign policies, which have created global uncertainty, are essentially about managing that decline, or outright denying it, rejecting facts in favour of rhetoric to assert a new U.S. role in the world. In some ways, this mirrors Britain’s efforts to hold onto its empire amid the rise of new powers like Germany and the United States.”
The late 19th century also offers the seeds of larger global shifts. “The collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the visible decline of the British Empire, and the internal instability of Russia all signaled the end of major imperial powers,” mentions Dr. Nichols, Professor of History from Ohio State, also highlighting the striking social and cultural parallels of the late 19th century: “the rise of mass media, with the emergence of the penny press in the U.S. and independent media outlets worldwide. Much like today, this era was defined by information battles, sensationalism, and media-driven nationalism.”
Trump’s foreign policy – a thought experiment?
Examining Trump’s foreign policy—if we can even call it that—primarily revolves around transactionalism, retrenchment, and skepticism towards alliances. Are there any historical parallels to this strategy?
Dr. Poast from UChicago outlines many instances where the U.S. has taken a transactional approach. “The idea of the U.S. being transactional is not unique to Trump. It’s a long-standing characteristic of U.S. foreign policy.”
The writer is a communications professional and a UN Volunteer. She can be reached at mariaamkahn@gmail.com
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