A World on Edge

The geo-political and geo-strategic scenario continues to feel tremors with the global power remaining firmly in the grip of Washington, D.C., despite some severe setbacks to unilateralism or the uni-polarity that reflected and demonstrated the global power and reach of the United States as the sole superpower after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989-90. The Soviet Union restrained the reach and influence of the US-led Western countries and resisted the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) eastward for over seven decades. The Cold War between the two superpowers witnessed intermittent waves of escalation and de-escalation, which were never allowed to spin into an open conflict or confrontation.

The collapse of the Soviet Union brought about cataclysmic changes in the global scenario. The Soviet Union broke into many independent countries unleashing chaotic political, territorial and ethnic conflicts and civil wars; the successor state of the Soviet Union – Russia - found itself in deep political, economic and leadership crises with weak and sick Boris Yeltsin at the helm; the new international system with an increased emphasis on market-driven economic interactions, commercial exchanges and free trade under the World Trade Organization brought forth enormous political and economic opportunities and challenges at the regional and international plane. It provided a strong stimulus to China for economic and trade expansion.

Since the mid-1990s, China has pursued a vigorous path to political, economic, and strategic ascendancy and regional hegemony. China acquired enough economic and military muscle to stand out as an emerging superpower, inspiring awe and fear in its neighbors in East Asia and the surrounding Pacific and South Asian regions. China performed this miracle by focusing on economic development and trade expansion while putting its political, ideological, and territorial disputes on the back burner and displaying patience and restraint in international affairs. The world started witnessing the dividends of this focused economic development. Today, China has the second-highest GDP of over $18.8 trillion, though it still lags far behind the US’s GDP of $28.7 trillion. The phenomenal economic and military rise of a regional state is strategically deemed a direct threat to the hegemony and dominance of the superpower. Hence, China started to be spotlighted as the rival of the USA.

China became the top trading partner of the East Asian countries signing regional economic deals that included free trade agreements with Australia, Singapore, South Korea, the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) and others, and built institutional infrastructure in an apparent competition with the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Japanese-led Asian Development Bank for economic reach and influence. In 2014, China, co-opting BRICS countries, created the $100 billion New Development Bank, and the following year, it set up the $ 100 billion Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which was joined by 80 countries. Following these financial institutions, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was launched, costing over $1trilion, seeking to interconnect over 60 countries. The US viewed all this as a challenge from a rival state.

The reorganization of the People’s Liberation Army pivoting around the doctrine of ‘anti-access, area denial’ to keep its shores and airspace clear of the US military intrusion was a cause of concern, too. The Western media cried foul that ‘China had built the region’s largest coast guard and was controlling a vast militia of civilian fishing vessels. Over half a dozen islands in the South China Sea have been developed that house air force bases, missile shelters, and radar and communication facilities. The US showed particular concern about the expansion of Chinese air defenses. The Americans apprehend that China can strike their naval vessels and poses an increased missile threat to their air bases and ports.

Contrarily, the Chinese leadership remained concerned about the military siege weaved around their country by the USA stationing battle Force ships including 11 carriers in Japan, Guam, South Korea, Diego Garcia, India (Quad), Australia (AUKUS) with hypersonic weapons, B-21 bombers, AI war-gamming, and signing defence treaties with individual South East Asian States. However, the two powerful countries have been taking conscious policy decisions to continue to have competition at the strategic, political, and economic level without crossing the red lines of each other to spark military confrontation. This sustains the hope and optimism for peace in the world. However, things are not too rosy to inspire belief in the goodness of the nation states.

Analysts feel strongly that history has taken a new cyclical turn for a change in the international political and strategic landscape, with China forging ahead as the flag carrier of this change. The future international order will be determined and shaped by the political and strategic relationship between China and the US, driving other countries to peripheral places in either camp. The US has been behaving as the unbridled master of this world since the disintegration of the Soviet Union. It has indulged in threatening and bullying states, changing regimes, and waging wars, undermining the UN and its Institutions. The world had a taste of Trump’s white supremacy policies and paranoia with China’s economic development and trade expansion during his first tenure. He has taken his trade war with China to new heights during his second tenure.