Shifting Equations

In a striking turn of events, the recent conflict between India and Pakistan once again brought the volatile nature of South Asia’s geopolitics to the fore. While the two nuclear-armed neighbours found themselves on the edge of a full-scale war, it was global diplomacy—led in part by the United States—that played a role in preventing further escalation. US President Donald Trump’s statement that he “brought back both the great nations from the brink of a nuclear war” is more than just diplomatic theatre—it is an admission of how fragile peace in the region remains.

However, the aftermath of this conflict has caused some unanticipated and deeply strategic shifts in the regional order.

For Pakistan, the episode has reaffirmed several key positions. Firstly, it has demonstrated that the country no longer leans on Washington in times of crisis. The US-Pakistan relationship has been one of transactional convenience over the years, and recent developments have only underscored that America’s leverage over Islamabad is now limited. On the other hand, Pakistan’s robust and time-tested alliance with China—militarily and economically—stood firmly in place. The unwavering support from Beijing served as a deterrent as well as a symbol of strategic stability in the region for Pakistan.

Conversely, India’s aspirations of unchallenged regional dominance suffered a setback. For years, New Delhi has worked to delink itself from Pakistan diplomatically, projecting itself as a rising global power far ahead of its western neighbour. But the conflict forced a re-hyphenation that India desperately sought to avoid. President Trump’s reference to both nations as “great countries” and his pitch for increased trade with both was an unwelcome equalizer for New Delhi. The symbolic parity was a diplomatic gain for Islamabad, restoring a sense of balance that had been slipping away in recent years.

One of the most significant outcomes of this episode is the revival of the Kashmir dispute on the global stage. Pakistan succeeded in placing Kashmir back on the international agenda, challenging India’s narrative that the matter is purely bilateral. For New Delhi, this represents a significant diplomatic reversal. The Indian media’s once-boisterous tone has dramatically shifted, from jingoistic chest-thumping and war cries to frustration, introspection, and even a sense of humiliation.