Cover Story 
 

Cover Story

Nuclear Flashpoint

The future of the South Asian region and, in fact, of the world, depends on the restraint of Pakistan and India, without which the world could face detrimental consequences.

By Sabria Chowdhury Balland | June 2025

Nuclear Flashpoint
On April 23, 2023, India decided for the first time to suspend its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). This treaty was brokered in 1960 by the World Bank to administer the sharing of water of the Indus River systems, essential for Pakistan, which receives 80% of its drinking and agricultural supply of water from this river system.

India’s decision was based on the April 22, 2025 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, in India administered Kashmir, in which 26 civilians were killed. According to India, the suspension of the treaty will be valid until Pakistan ends its support for terrorism, a claim for which it has yet to provide any proof.

It must be mentioned that the possibility that the terrorist attack which led to this latest escalation could be a false flag operation orchestrated by the Indian foreign intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) cannot be ignored. The agency has, on many occasions, orchestrated false flag operations to destabilize Kashmir and Balochistan, for instance. RAW false flag operations to create civil unrest are a common occurrence in Bangladesh, also, the goal being to impose unwanted Indian hegemony in South Asia.

In this unilateral revocation of the IWT, India has essentially declared war on Pakistan with its draconian decision to choose to block such an essential water supply to its neighbor. The latter calls this suspension of water “an act of war”.

The Nuclear aspect and the IAEA
Every few years, these two nuclear powered countries arrive at loggerheads and every few years, there is global panic over an escalation which could lead to a nuclear confrontation. What is extremely concerning and troubling about this, apart from the escalation itself, is that neither country is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which could limit their engagement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)’s complete safeguards program. The IAEA is a United Nations agency which focuses on the promotion of peaceful nuclear energy and the prevention of nuclear power for military use. The fact that the IAEA plays a limited role in the nuclear stockpiles of Pakistan and India is deeply worrisome on a global scale.

An extremely significant detail to highlight is that a nuclear war between Pakistan and India could cause extreme nuclear winter conditions as far away as the heartland of the United States for instance, destroying agriculture caused by nuclear winter leading to famine, along with other very harsh global consequences.


Retired Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, former Chief of Staff to the United States Secretary of State Colin Powell pointed out yet another very concerning aspect of the nuclear armaments of Pakistan and India. He pointed out that neither country’s armed forces had “done a lot of thinking about escalation theory.” Military escalation theory examines the deliberate and unintentional escalation of conflicts.

Therefore, in the example of the absence of escalation theory between Pakistan and India, according to Colonel Wilkinson, if one country is asked what it would do if the other fires for example, 20 weapons, the other country responded by saying it would fire 40, and so on and so forth. In other words, neither side envisions any cessation of military confrontation.

In the military confrontation between the two countries in April, posturing had been intensified along the Line of Control, a military controlled line between the Pakistan and Indian controlled parts of Jammu and Kashmir and in the Arabian Sea.

The Ceasefire
The US-brokered ceasefire was agreed upon on May 10, 2025. Despite some minor violations, it has largely been respected till now, which is an indication that both sides are aware of the dire global consequences of nuclear escalation. Pakistan seeks dialogue with regards to the suspension of the IWT. However, India’s insistence on the condition of ending terrorism is a hindrance to progress.

International pressure has been essential in the process of nuclear deterrence between the two countries. The United States has played an integral part in the de-escalation of a nuclear confrontation, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance ensuring that there be a ceasefire.

The question of when another flare up could arise is a critical one. The utter lack of trust between the two nations, the historical hostilities, the water sharing complexities, the intense Indian military presence along the Line of Control (LOC) and more of India’s false flag operations are just some of the concerns which could be the foundations of future confrontations between these two neighboring countries.

Prevention of Nuclear War
Although easier said than done, nuclear war between Pakistan and India can be averted by the fortification of deterrence based on transparency, diplomacy and dialogue. The practice of the de-escalation theory is thus crucial.

The two countries should also negotiate nuclear arms control agreements to limit the deployment of their respective nuclear arsenal.

The issue of Kashmir is a key point of contention which, in the absence of possible dialogue between the two countries, could be mediated by a third parties.

Conclusion
In conclusion, it cannot be said enough that nuclear escalation between Pakistan and India presents extreme dangers and risks. The most recent crisis, with advanced military technologies, was a stark reminder of the imperative role of dialogue and diplomacy. The future of the South Asian region and in fact, of the world, is dependent on the restraint of these two neighbors, without which the world could face detrimental consequences.

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