Cold Peace

The 2025 India–Pakistan conflict, commencing on April 22nd, 2025, marked a significant escalation in the longstanding tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. The conflict was triggered by a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, that resulted in the deaths of 26 tourists. India accused Pakistan-based militants of orchestrating the attack, without presenting any form of evidence or political correspondents. This led to a series of military operations and widespread international concern within the two nations.

Shortly after the Pahalgam attack, India revoked all existing trade ties with Pakistan, including the informal cross-border trade at the Line of Control (LoC). It pressured the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to relist Pakistan on the grey list, citing support for terrorism, and launched a global diplomatic campaign to isolate Pakistan, presenting sham evidence of the attack’s links to groups based in Pakistan. More significantly, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and on May 7th, India launched Operation Sindoor, subsequently igniting the most severe escalation between the two nuclear-armed neighbors in decades.

On May 7th, Operation Sindoor targeted alleged terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). The attack aimed to dismantle terrorist infrastructure but resulted in civilian casualties, including the deaths of 31 individuals and injuries to at least 46 others. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also organized a Sindoor Yatra in New Delhi to honor the armed forces for Operation Sindoor, and leaders like Smriti Irani and Rekha Gupta praised the operation for protecting national dignity and sending a strong message to “terrorists.” Pakistan defended itself during these late-night attacks and downed approximately seventy-seven drones and six Indian jets, including the Rafale (BS-001), as confirmed by the Washington Post. Reports indicate that Pakistan deployed approximately 300 to 400 Turkish-made Songar drones on the night of May 8, 2025, aiming at 36 sites across Jammu, Kashmir, Punjab, Rajasthan, and Gujarat. Additionally, Pakistan reportedly used 500 small drones over a span of 3.5 hours on May 8 to target 24 Indian cities. These drones were primarily employed for intelligence gathering and precision strikes.

It was in the early hours of May 10, 2025, following the night during which India had attacked the PAF Base Nur Khan in Rawalpindi, that Pakistan launched its Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos. After the morning Fajr prayers, Pakistan’s Air Force targeted Indian military bases and successfully intercepted and destroyed approximately 78 Israeli-made drones, including Heron and Harop variants. India reported that these strikes targeted civilian areas, including Hindu and Sikh religious sites. However, claims were voided through social media by Indians inhabiting those areas, and later, upon careful consideration of the mileage of the drones deployed. Reportedly, Indian troops raised a white flag in surrender at the Chora Complex on the Line of Control (LoC) early afternoon. However, India continued its attack on Lahore. Pakistan further escalated its operation, and upon further advancement of the war, news began circulating on the very day that Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif had orchestrated a meeting with the NCA (Nuclear Command Authority) in Pakistan. Shortly after, international mediation commenced between the two neighbours, and a ceasefire was agreed upon following communications between the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) of both countries. With Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio engaging with Indian and Pakistani officials, the United States played a mediating role that President Donald Trump immediately recognized. On the very day that Pakistan began its attack, the war ended.

This war rehashed old scars and the two nations were brought back to the scene of the injury: the slit that severed the subcontinent from 1947. Once again, the distrust has deepened as the war has intensified mutual suspicion since both countries are now likely to militarize their borders further and expand their drone, missile, and cyber capabilities. A diplomatic freeze has ensued wherein formal diplomatic channels stay frozen, with backchannel talks quietly ongoing but under strain, and public opinion on social media, news media, and commercial media has hardened since nationalistic fervor has surged on both sides. This, in turn, has made political compromises even more difficult for the near-term and future negotiations, since the voice of the people will only tend to align with the sentiment that resonates, and on both sides, that the neighbor is the aggressor.

Even though both nations claimed tactical victories, the war ultimately reaffirmed the impossibility of a military resolution to the Kashmir Issue and deepened long-standing hostilities. The high cost of escalation, including the real risk of nuclear confrontation, once again exposed the fragile stability of the South Asian region. Ultimately, there are three major lessons from this conflict: first and foremost, that technology amplifies risk, wherein the use of drones and hypersonic weapons reduced reaction times and increased the risk of miscalculation. Reports on X, Instagram, Facebook, and Reddit fueled destructive behavior in bordering regions by civilians. Inevitably, future conflicts within these countries may be decided faster and with greater destruction unless limits or protocols are established. Secondly, when it comes to India and Pakistan, nuclear deterrence barely holds. Despite intense provocations, both countries avoided nuclear use. However, the speed and scale of the conflict showed how easily nuclear red lines could be tested, making future escalation harder to control. And lastly, and most importantly, this war reinforced what decades of conflict have shown: neither side can militarily resolve its grievances. Political engagement and sustained diplomacy remain the only viable path to lasting peace, and should aggression begin, neither Pakistan nor India will tolerate civilian casualties.

There are many ways in which the conflict can be sustained for the time being. International mediation may rise, and global powers, especially the U.S., China, and the UN, may push for arms control agreements or confidence-building measures to prevent another escalation. Both nations might be pressured to develop bilateral agreements on the use of drones and cyber weapons to avoid accidental escalations. Alternatively, a South Asian cold war with proxy conflicts and economic competition could unfold; however, for now, the region remains in a state of Cold Peace— an active deterrence with no open fighting, but high tension, since it is imminent that Kashmir remains volatile. This core dispute remains unresolved, and any unrest or militant activity in the region could again trigger conflict.

On a more fervent note, after the dust settled, on May 21st, COAS Syed Asim Munir was promoted to the five-star rank of Field Marshal. He is the second officer in the history of Pakistan to hold the rank of Field Marshal after Ayub Khan, a feat he so evidently deserved. A clearer picture will be drawn after Modi visits the Indian state of Bihar on May 30; should he celebrate an anticipated victory that becomes certain in time, we will know that the war and the civilian casualties did not go to waste after all.