Shirking Responsibility

As the U.S. and NATO forces pull out of from war-torn Afghanistan, the number of security-related events has increased dramatically. President Joe Biden took time to explain his foreign policy goals but leaving a seriously internecine, violence-affected and impoverished nation in a shambles does not reflect well on the US. The Afghan Taliban are tasting the sweetness of victory as minor and major sequels of fighting are occurred in major strategic areas in Afghanistan. With the Taliban’s rising again to power, Afghanistan’s neighbours seem to have their feet swelling.

Afghanistan, and its neighbours China, India, Pakistan, Iran and Russia, will be most affected by the U.S. exit and what it signifies in a larger historical sense. The U.S.’s cautious approach has been disastrous for Afghanistan. Out of 978 billion U.S. dollars, only 36 billion U.S. dollars were spent in development and humanitarian and socio-economic activities in Afghanistan. The Afghanistan government relies significantly on foreign aid. Even, if the Taliban take control or become a part of a future administration, this will not alter. The citizens are concerned that the U.S. troops departure would result in a decrease in US assistance for their country. International aid accounted for almost 40% of the country’s GDP.

The speed with which the U.S. and its allies are executing their military departure from Afghanistan raises major doubts about the Afghan government’s and Taliban’s capacity to reach a peace agreement. In recent months, Taliban forces have spread across strategically significant sections of the population. Their previous leadership experience was not encouraging. They may have only learnt a few things since then and matured in their thoughts and attitude, but that’s not likely.

The ultimate result can open the door for a regional proxy war. Immediate neighbours and the Gulf states may all use their surrogate allies in Afghanistan to compete militarily. A new civil war would erupt, with no single Afghan group able to maintain power. The void would be an excellent breeding ground for violent extremist parties to regroup, expand and recruit Turks, Uzbeks, North African and Middle Eastern fighters again which would take Afghanistan back to the point from where it started.

The Taliban’s governance culture has not changed. They continue to despise the modern state and snub the concept of democracy. They make no secret of their desire to re-establish their cruel totalitarian regime, which would need the demolition of the present Afghan state in order to re-establish a state based on their own narrow understanding of Sharia.

The Taliban’s foremost important characteristic is their long-standing relationship with Pakistan. Because of their strong ties, the Taliban Emirate has already spent two decades moving in and out of Pakistan . Pakistan is supposed to be a safe haven for its political and military leaders. The country is also supposed to have a strong grip on the Taliban. This is something that Pakistan’s law enforcement agencies and Prime Minister Imran Khan have denied at the recent Central Asian summit and before Afghan media personnel in Islamabad. The theory of safe havens perhaps makes sense due to the proximity of the two countries, as well as the fact that the Taliban leadership relies so much on Pakistan.

Other neighbouring countries are also looking for closer ties with Afghanistan due to its growing strategic importance. China is indeed pondering deployment of troops in the country to combat the threat of an avalanche of terrorist organizations, whose existence could transform Uyghur unrest into a total nightmare. It recently invited Taliban leadership to Beijing. Both countries share a narrow border in the Wakhan valley. China is already stressed out because of the volatile militancy movement in the Xinjiang region. China has copper, gas and oil mining contracts with Afghanistan and these need to be protected. A billion dollar trade route in Pakistan passes very close to Afghanistan and any turmoil or civil unrest in that country could have direct consequences in Pakistan; this would negatively impact CPEC.

Iran, another Afghan neighbour with strong and deep cultural and religious ties and a long border, is also widely blamed for unrest in Afghanistan. It has cheered the departure of U.S. land NATO forces from Afghanistan. But, Iran wouldn’t want an influx of refugees and a hostile Taliban government. A strong Taliban-led Sunni government and a strict Shia government in Iran is a continuing issue. The Iranian government this time has softened its tone due to the Hazara community in Afghanistan and the Taliban rising to power.

India has been the most hesitant to join the Taliban’s embrace so far. Domestic issues and regional rivalries have stopped it from facing the potential of a Taliban return to power firmly during the Covid-19 pandemic RAW and NDS were in partnership to dismantle the consortium of peace in Pakistan ,especially in vulnerable Balochistan. With Afghan security forces fading in power slowly, India is on the receiving end. It will not, however, be able to ignore another state collapse in Afghanistan. This why US Secretary of State Antony Blinken landed in New Delhi in late July. The U.S. sees India as its strategic partner in the region. This allows India to operate in partnership with NDS in and outside Afghanistan.

All the existing neighbours must learn a vital lesson from Afghanistan’s four-decade-long war. These countries should take action to assist an independent Afghan state capable of policing itself and combating proxy war incursions. The sense of rejection among thousands of people who put their faith in a superpower is profound. The sword of military takeover has left deeper wounds and the people are left with no hope.