Cover Story 
 

Cover Story

Peace Dividends

The Taliban’s recent victory and peace overtures spell a better future for the region, provided some nations do not continue to play mischief.

By Colonel (R) Muhammad Hanif | September 2021


To end the US and NATO 20-year long unwinnable war against the Taliban in Afghanistan, after a year long negotiations with the Taliban hosted by Qatar and facilitated by Pakistan, the Trump administration signed a peace deal with the Taliban on 19 February 2020. The deal meant that the US and NATO forces would withdraw from Afghanistan by May 1, 2021, POWs would be exchanged, the Taliban would not host any terrorist groups and the Afghan government of Ashraf Ghani would also hold negotiations to strike a peace deal.

The deal clearly indicated that the US had accepted the Taliban as a major stakeholder in Afghanistan. In the light of the peace deal, the Taliban and the Ghani government held negotiations a few times in Doha during 2020, though these did not produce any results. The main reason was that President Ghani wanted to cling to power and was not in favour of forming an all-inclusive transitional government which also had the Taliban in it.

In the mean time, the US presidential elections held in April 2020 were won by Joe Biden and, after forming his government and reviewing the Doha Agreement, in mid-April 2021, he declared that the US and NATO Troops would be withdrawn from Afghanistan without any preconditions, starting May 1, 2021, to end America’s longest war, and the withdrawal would be completed by Sept 11, 2021. Later, in June 2021, President Biden announced that the U.S. military operation in Afghanistan would end by Aug. 31, 2021.

Biden also urged the Afghan government and Taliban, which he said remained as formidable a force as before the start of the war, to come to a peace agreement. Biden said, ”We went to Afghanistan for two reasons: get rid of bin Laden and to end the safe haven. I never thought we were there for the nation building, and the Afghan leaders have to come together and drive toward a future.” Biden further stated that it was now time for other countries to play a bigger role in Afghanistan, particularly Pakistan, but also Russia, India, China and Turkey.

Despite Biden’s announcement, although Taliban-Afghan government talks were held twice, but made no headway due to the delaying tactics used by the Ghani administration. Even Blinken’s last minute effort of asking Ghani to start the talks by saying that the window of opportunity was limited, did not move the Ghani Administration. The events in Afghanistan indicate that President Ghani, being power-hungry, and India insisting to use Afghan soil against Pakistan, were cooperating to fail the talks, whereas all the major powers and the regional countries wanted the intra-Afghan dialogue to succeed. However, irrespective of the outcome of the talks, the US and NATO forces continued to withdraw as per their schedule.

Seemingly, having been frustrated by Ghani government’s lukewarm attitude towards the talks, in August 2021, the Taliban accelerated their military operations, preceded by announcing a general amnesty for the Afghan army troops, who surrendered and for the people if they did not resist. This strategy of the Taliban has been quite successful as just, within days, they had captured the headquarters of about 20 provinces and taken control of almost 80 percent border posts without much fighting as the Afghan army units kept surrendering, while the people also cooperated and Kabul was isolated.


Finally, on 15 August 2021, the Taliban entered Kabul and were in control of entire Afghanistan. According the New York Times of 15 August 2021, “the Taliban effectively sealed their control of Afghanistan, pouring into the capital, Kabul, and meeting little resistance as President Ashraf Ghani fled the country and the government collapsed, and the U.S. military raced to evacuate diplomats and civilians from an increasingly panicked city”.

With the Talibans’ swift victory, the leaders of the US and NATO countries got a big surprise as they never thought that the Afghanistan government and its army would crumble so soon. President Biden said the Taliban won because Afghan President Ghani did not accept US advice to seriously pursue talks with the Taliban and the Afghan army was not willing to fight. The US defence secretary said that the US did not expect that the Taliban would take over so soon and it happened because the Afghan army did not fight. The EU and NATO countries’ officials also said that the Taliban’s quick and sweeping takeover of Afghanistan was a surprise.

Now, after their victory, the Taliban are in the process of consolidating their control over Afghanistan. The first press conference of the Taliban spokesman in Kabul, Zabeeh Ullah Mujahid, was encouraging. On behalf of the Taliban’s top leadership, he announced amnesty for all those who supported the foreign forces in the last 20 years war, including the members of the Afghan army and government servants and asked them to return to duty, as no revenge would be taken from anybody. He named the country as Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

He also said that women were free to go to school and their jobs provided they were in the proper Islamic dress. A broad-based government was to be formed, co-opting Afghan representatives from all ethnic groups to write a new constitution and decide about the political setup in Afghanistan. The media would be free to operate but without any anti Afghan activities. Afghan soil would not be used against any other country. No terrorist groups would be allowed to stay in Afghanistan and the TTP would also not be tolerated. Afghanistan would like to have good diplomatic, economic and trade relations with all countries.

With such a policy of the Taliban, all major powers and other countries showed their willingness to recognize the Taliban government and work with them for the betterment of the Afghan people. The US, UK, EU, Russia, China, Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and other important countries of the world gave indications that they would be willing to work with the Taliban for the benefit of the Afghan people, if they formed a broad-based government with representation of all ethnic groups. Only India was asking the world not to recognize the Taliban government.This indicated that the Taliban would enable peace and progress and the people’s poverty and backwardness would finally be addressed.

For Pakistan, a Taliban government would prove beneficial on many counts. There would be no more India-sponsored terrorism in Pakistan and there would be unhindered progress of CPEC; it was previously being disturbed by India. The Taliban government may even join the CPEC. Trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan and the Central Asian States (CARs), China, Russia and the outer world would also flourish.

Besides China and Russia, the US, UK and EU countries would very much like to build their influence in Afghanistan and Central Asia and would also like to have economic and trade relations with these countries, using the Gwadar port and CPEC. Because of this evolving situation, although India has become the USA’s strategic and close defence partner, Pakistan still remains important for the US and its allies to keep their influence in Afghanistan, Central Asia and the Middle East.

The US would like to keep good relations with both India and Pakistan and would also like Pakistan and India to have good mutual relations on a long-term and sustainable basis. For this to happen, the US will have to help resolve the Kasmir dispute amicably. This is when the Pakistan government should exploit the evolving situation to its advantage through bold and timely actions.

Pakistan can start by building long-term strategic relations with the Taliban government, especially its inclusion in CPEC. Pakistan should rebuild good relations with the US. By asserting its position of being a party to the Kashmir dispute as per the UNSC resolutions, Simla Agreement and the Lahore Declaration, Pakistan should get US and EU support by pressing India to reverse its August 5, 2019 steps in Kashmir before starting the talks. Pakistan should further cement its strategic partnership with China and should actively advance its relations with Russia. It must focus on completion of CPEC on time and, at the same time, work for unity with Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey and the Gulf countries.

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