Cover Story 
 

Cover Story

The Indian Dream

The road to India’s coveted global power status passes through South Asia and Pakistan remains a spoiler as far as the Indian dream of regional hegemony is concerned.

By Dr Talat Farooq | May 2021

In early February of 2021, Pakistan Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa stated that it was time for India and Pakistan to move towards peacefully resolving festering bilateral issues. A few weeks later, the Indian and Pakistani DGMOs issued a joint statement pertaining to a hotline mechanism, adherence to all agreements and to a ceasefire along the LoC.

In March, Prime Minister Modi sent a ‘get well soon’ message to PM Imran Khan after he tested positive for Covid-19 and also expressed his ‘desire’ for peace and the Pakistan premier appreciated his gesture. However, the exchange included outlining preconditions for any talks, i.e., terrorism for Modi and Kashmir dispute for IK.

At first glance, these developments appear to reflect a ‘’thawing of relations.’’ A second glance raises an interesting question. Why would Modi, the RSS-backed ultra-nationalist and voted twice into power to advance his anti-Muslim, anti-Pakistan agenda, suddenly strike a conciliatory tone?

Supporting their Indian counterparts, some Pakistani journalists suggested that Islamabad is desperate to talk to New Delhi because the heavy financial cost of military engagement was too much for the country’s weak economy. (Interestingly, the same commentators are known critics of the Pakistan military’s commercial ventures that, according to their assessment, make it a state institution that is richer than the state!) Others claimed that Pakistan has given up its principled stance on BJP’s abrogation of Article 370.

The Pakistan civil-military combine clearly want to focus on regional interconnectivity for domestic growth as symbolized by CPEC and sustained counter-terrorism efforts. At the same time, Islamabad is actively involved in the Afghan peace efforts and a less volatile border with India would no doubt be advantageous.

That said, a third deeper look reveals that it is in fact New Delhi that is desperate to gain a short-term tactical advantage and to catch a breather. For now, Ajit Doval’s efforts to fix Islamabad through FATF while bashing it through disinformation on the one hand, and terrorist activities inside Pakistani territory, don’t seem to have the desired results for the Indians.

naeem-ahmedThe road to India’s coveted global power status passes through South Asia and Pakistan remains a spoiler as far as the Indian dream of regional hegemony is concerned. CPEC is a real thorn in the Indian side as it has the potential to bring economic dividends to Pakistan.

New Delhi’s harping on Pakistan’s sponsorship of terrorism despite evidence to the contrary is revealing. Modi will be willing to use all military and non-military tools at his disposal, including leveraging US-India partnership, to undermine CPEC and bleed Pakistan economically. This is where Washington-New Delhi security interests converge in South Asia.

As luck would have it, CPEC is the key component of BRI, and Beijing’s strategic interests have never been so closely entwined with Islamabad’s. This was reflected in China’s willingness to take military action in Ladakh to secure Pakistan’s GB area that connects CPEC with China’s western region. New Delhi does not have the wherewithal for a two-and-a-half front war. Thus, temporarily reducing tensions with Pakistan can provide more defence space for countering a larger threat.

Secondly, continued atrocities in Indian-occupied Kashmir do not sit well with the human rights rhetoric of the Biden administration. The Sikhs in Punjab and the Maoists in Chhattisgarh are not helpful, either. Therefore, peace optics might prove to be advantageous until such time that Biden too takes a U-turn à la Bill Clinton in the 1990s when he renounced his professed love for human rights to access Indian markets.

The US Annual Threat Assessment Report 2021 warns that under Modi’s leadership, New Delhi is ‘’more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations.” Unfortunately for India, regional realignments have the potential to dampen Modi-Doval ambitions.

With closer Moscow-Beijing ties, Islamabad has the opportunity to strengthen a strategic partnership with both. Add to this the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and Taliban becoming part of the future Afghan government,Tehran moving closer to Beijing, and the ndia-US strategic partnership beginning to look less shiny. Small wonder then that New Delhi has not fully moved into the Washington camp to serve as an offshore balancer against China - India’s largest trading partner.

Under the Modi administration, any conciliatory move towards Pakistan will always be a hoax, not only because of decades of mutual distrust but more significantly in view of Modi’s RSS indoctrination and BJP’s Hindutva-laced toxic ideology.

Pakistan would do well to remember that loving is easier than trusting. That is why there is no commandment exhorting ‘trust thy neighbour’.

Read More