Neighbours Coming Closer

By Santosh Kumar | May 2021

Let me begin with acknowledging the affection that I, as an Indian, have received from Pakistanis. There is much that is similar in our ethnicity, history, language, and culture that makes me feel at home with them. My heart being in the right place, I hope I can speak my mind without being misconstrued.

A road map for closer Indo-Pak relations presumes that they are a low hanging fruit, ripe for plucking if only we follow the correct route. Nothing can be farther from the truth. Let us look at some formidable road blocks.

An overarching problem is the security syndromes of the two countries. Pakistan’s security concerns about India revolve around several themes. Firstly, that India is not reconciled to the partition and is out to undo Pakistan. Actually, Indian leaders not only came around to accepting the British proposal but realized its benefits. India currently has enough problems of its own for it to take on new ones. Its interests lie in the status quo on the territorial identity of the two countries.

It is Pakistan which wants a change. A constant refrain is that there can be no peace without settling the ‘core’ Kashmir issue. Having failed to force a military solution, it now pins hopes on subversion combined with assertive diplomacy. This strategy only hardens the Indian government’s position. And it fears political harakiri,should it be seen as having given in. It is hard to imagine how talks can arrive at a solution that will satisfy both.

Another popular narrative holds India responsible for creating Bangladesh. The fact of the matter is that Bangladesh was created by the excesses of the Pakistan military in what was then East Pakistan, though India, under severe stress from a massive refugee influx, did intervene militarily in support of Bengali resistance. India’s protection and return of Pakistani POWs and its generosity in the Simla Agreement notwithstanding, Pakistan was soon fed on revanchist sentiment, especially the Pakistan military. Scars from that episode have yet to be fully healed.

Terrorism is perhaps the biggest security concern. India’s view is that the Pakistan ‘deep state’ sponsors terrorists not only in Jammu and Kashmir but also in other parts of India. That is why Pakistan drags its feet on punishing those responsible or handing them over for trial in India. Pakistan’s allegations on Indian involvement in Balochistan are seen as an obfuscation. Linkages between the issues of terrorism and Kashmir, hinted at by Pakistan’s leaders from time to time, have confirmed Indian suspicions.

The imminent withdrawal of Western troops from Afghanistan is a big game changer. Pakistan can view a likely Afghan civil war in the aftermath as an opportunity to gain ‘strategic depth’ by installing a pliable Taliban regime in Kabul. Whether Pakistan, diminished in U.S. security and aid calculations, will be able to sustain such a regime is doubtful. So is its ability to prevent Talibanisation from spilling over into its already radicalized society. One option is heavier reliance on China for security and financial underpinning. How palatable this is in Pakistan and what are the limits of Chinese interests are, however, another open question. India of course cannot be expected to view either of these scenarios with equanimity.

Security perceptions are therefore the main gridlock. And vested interests have built up around it. The military and politico-bureaucratic establishment in Pakistan thrives on it, as also in India to a lesser degree. Pakistan’s situation is particularly poignant. The main beneficiary of the roadblock - the military - also exercises a veto on its removal. It is hard to be optimistic about the road ahead unless we work at transforming mindsets. For this to happen, Pakistan will need to realize the value of a co-operative security arrangement on its eastern borders. Towards this end, it might be useful to initiate contacts between the two militaries at various levels.

Potential benefits from closer economic relations are being held hostage to security perceptions. Studies of existing patterns indicate that freer trade alone will benefit exports of both countries, with a bigger percentage increase for Pakistan. Additionally, trade in new products, industry-to-industry commerce and investment, and transit revenues from third country trade (including oil and gas) are long-term prospects. Optimal management of Indus Basin water resources can help improve availability of water and hydropower and control floods and siltation, thereby benefiting farmers and water-stressed communities in both countries. There is no point in getting bogged down in who will gain more and who less, as long as there is win-win for both.

Pakistan’s rulers seem to feel that linking an economic opening to prior roll-back of Kashmir’s changed status as a union territory will make the latter happen. Looking at the relative sizes of the two economies, the gains to India are clearly not enough for any such pressure to work.

Any approach to Indo-Pak relations must face these basic realities. Unless we can work to alter them, high sounding statements will remain just that. Tellingly, both sides come out with them to play to the gallery at opportune junctures, like before bilateral talks or Western VIP visits. Afterwards, things go back to ‘normal’. A blow-hot, blow-cold cycle has persisted in our relations.

The looming crisis in Afghanistan is a critical cross-roads both countries will have to traverse. It can worsen the old normal or be grasped as an opportunity to build a new normal. Frank talk at governmental and popular levels is the way forward towards a better appreciation of realities and better outcomes.

One thing is certain. Something will have to give somewhere.

Cover Story

Neighbours Coming Closer

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Update