Goodwill Gesture

In a surprising turn of events, the People’s National Congress (PNC), led by Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu, secured a decisive victory in the parliamentary elections held on April 21, 2024. The PNC, along with its allied parties, captured 75 out of 93 seats. This marks a significant shift in the Maldivian political landscape, raising questions about the future of India-Maldives relations. Given the pro-China stance of President Mohamed Muizzu, does this victory herald that the India-Maldives relations will be at an all-time low?

Few anticipated the extent of Muizzu’s success in the parliamentary elections. This victory comes from Muizzu’s unexpected win in last year’s presidential runoff, where he garnered over 54% of the vote against the outgoing president Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who received around 46%. Muizzu’s presidential triumph was initially seen as a fluke, given he was a fall-back candidate after the Supreme Court barred former president Abdulla Yameen from running due to his imprisonment.

However, just days before the polls, Ali Nasser Mohamed, Maldives’ ambassador to the United Nations, told the media that the government was confident of securing at least 90 per cent of the seats in the parliament.

With more than a two-thirds majority in the parliament, it will be easy for Muizzu to run the country without significant opposition, as Majlis Shora had fallen out with him on several occasions. With a supermajority in the parliament, he can now make changes even to the constitution. Muizzu’s political rivals feared this might turn the country into an authoritarian regime, as the PNC was formed after Muizzu became presidential-elect. The PNC had no base nor any democratic structure. So, it would be a one-man party, with Muizzu as de facto King.

Muizzu’s victory is widely interpreted as a referendum on the Maldives’ foreign policy, particularly its relations with India and China. Muizzu, perceived as pro-China, contrasts with Solih’s pro-India stance. Throughout his campaign in presidential polls, Muizzu pledged to expel Indian military personnel from the Maldives and to rebalance relations that he claimed were overly favorable to India. He rode on the “India Out Campaign.”

Following his campaign promises, Mohamed Muizzu delivered on his promise to send Indian troops back home to India. He reached an agreement with India to remove all its 83 soldiers in batches, with a deadline of May 10. The last batch of Indian soldiers stationed in the Maldives was repatriated, with civilian staff now managing the two helicopters and a Dornier aircraft previously operated by Indian military personnel.

Besides, breaking with the tradition of visiting India first, Mohamed Muizzu visited Türkiye in November. He signed a deal with his Turkish counterpart to secure Turkish drones worth 37 million US dollars. After visiting Turkey, Muizzu visited China, a traditional rival of India, to strengthen bilateral ties between the two countries.

These moves did not go well with India, a key supporter of Maldives, and has bailed it out on several occasions. Indian PM Narendra Modi went to Lakhswadeep Islands, which he thought would provide an alternative to Maldives. Three of Muizzu’s ministers made derogatory remarks about the Indian PM. Following this, Indian social media activists called Indian tourists to stop visiting the Maldives. This campaign appears to have had a significant impact, with tourist arrivals from India plummeting by 42% from 73,000 to 43,000 from January to April 2024, compared to the same period in 2023.