Region 
 

Dhaka

Within the Eye of the Storm

The more Bangladesh inclines towards Pakistan, the more pressure India will exert to restrain it.

By Atif Shamim Syed | March 2025


Since student protestors sent Sheikh Hasina packing towards neighbouring India last August, the geo-political landscape of the South Asian region has begun to shift in previously unimaginable ways. First and foremost among them is a marked sudden decline in the relationship between Bangladesh and India, with the latter watching its influence erode rapidly and perhaps permanently.

Sheikh Hasina maintained a complex and multifaceted relationship with India during her tenure. Her administration generally reflected a strong alignment with Indian interests. Hasina’s father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, was the founding leader of Bangladesh. His close ties with India played a crucial role in the 1971 war, which culminated in the establishment of the independent state of Bangladesh. This historical bond influenced Hasina’s pro-India stance throughout her lengthy political career.

Bangladesh, formerly East Pakistan, was an integral part of the state of Pakistan. The Eastern part broke away after a bloody civil war and became an independent nation. India played a major role in this tragedy. Though Pakistan recognized the nascent state of Bangladesh only a few years later, relations between the two countries have always been strained. However, over the past few months, Pakistan and Bangladesh have come closer, causing great alarm in New Delhi.

The recent visit of four senior intelligence officials to Dhaka is particularly intriguing for India. This signals a notable shift in the relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh. There are clear signs of reconciliation between Islamabad and Dhaka after Sheikh Hasina’s sudden removal from power. Growing ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh pose a challenge to India’s influence in the region.

Bangladesh’s current leader, Muhammad Yunus, has shown minimal interest in repairing ties with India while actively striving to strengthen relations with Pakistan. In a meeting with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Cairo, Yunus emphasized the need to address unresolved issues from 1971, likely referring to Bangladesh’s longstanding grievances related to the war. Sharif responded by agreeing to examine the matter and advocating for deeper strategic ties between the two nations, which he described as “brotherly.”

India’s longstanding support for Hasina’s autocratic rule may have influenced the new administration in Dhaka to reassess its approach towards bilateral ties with New Delhi. Last month, the interim government requested India to extradite Hasina for legal proceedings. She faces allegations of overseeing human rights violations, including a lethal crackdown on protesters. The Indian government chose to refrain from responding to this request. It is apparent that India does not want to hand over Hasina to Bangladesh for fear of being seen as abandoning a political leader who supported New Delhi through thick and thin.
On its part, India has consistently voiced concerns regarding the condition of Hindus in Bangladesh, who make up around 8 per cent of the population. The Hindu minority is traditionally a staunch supporter of Hasina’s Awami League. New Delhi implies that Bangladeshi Hindus are facing persecution.

Bangladesh firmly denies these claims and asserts that misinformation from Indian media outlets and their consistent false rhetoric is the main cause of Muslim-Hindu friction within the country.


Bangladesh is seeking to establish a different form of governance and forge fresh international partnerships. The current political leadership deems distancing the country from Indian influence as the first step towards breaking completely free of Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian legacy. Consequently, the push for domestic change is accompanied by a shift towards a less reliant foreign policy on India.

India’s longstanding support for Sheikh Hasina’s autocratic rule may have influenced the new administration in Bangladesh to reassess its approach towards bilateral ties with New Delhi.

This challenge is complicated by Donald Trump’s ascendance to the Oval Office depriving Bangladesh of financial and diplomatic support offered by the previous US administration. Feeling increasingly vulnerable, Bangladesh is reaching out to Pakistan and China.

The growing warmth between Pakistan and Bangladesh is a cause of concern for New Delhi. Bangladesh is India’s closest ally in South Asia with strong economic and security ties between the two nations. Bangladesh played a pivotal role in curbing anti-India militancy in the northeastern states that border Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina took decisive action against insurgent groups that exploited the Bangladesh-India border to smuggle arms into India. Under her leadership, Bangladesh and India peacefully resolved key disputes that had lingered for decades.

With Hasina’s hasty exit, India faces an uncertain situation. The prospect of Bangladesh adopting a more independent foreign policy—potentially reviving ties with Pakistan—carries strategic implications. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar’s scheduled visit to Dhaka rings a few more alarm bells in New Delhi. However, despite shifting diplomatic dynamics, Bangladesh remains deeply reliant on India for trade, energy, and security cooperation. The two countries have deep historical ties and divergent interests. They share a long border. Bangladeshi water sources originate in India. Given its geographical proximity, political instability, and economic vulnerability, Dhaka is unlikely to risk completely distancing itself from New Delhi.

For the time being, Bangladesh seems to be carefully adjusting its foreign policy strategy with the changing regional dynamics. Instead of fully aligning with Pakistan, it appears to be exploring a more diversified approach to its diplomatic and trade relationships. Dhaka’s stance suggests a desire to move beyond historical tensions and cultivate ties with Islamabad while also preserving its historic partnership with India. From New Delhi’s perspective, Dhaka’s newfound diplomatic independence poses a formidable challenge. It must maintain its influence on Bangladesh and also prevent the latter from tilting towards Pakistan. The more Bangladesh inclines towards Pakistan, the more pressure India will exert to restrain it.

South Asia’s geopolitical landscape is shifting swiftly and Bangladesh is positioned within the eye of the storm. It may look to improve relations with Pakistan, but its historical ties with India cannot be easily undone. As a result, despite increasing engagement between Dhaka and Islamabad, Bangladesh is likely to engage in a precarious balancing act where its national interests will always come first.

Read More